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inflation for the years between 1986 and 1999. 513 As a result, the indicator has only risen 37
percent, from $1.00 to $1.37, since 1986. Meanwhile, inflation over that period would have
increased the indicator from $1 of damage to $2.15 in 2014. 514
GAO analyzed actual and projected obligations for 508 disaster declarations which
received Public Assistance grants during fiscal years 2004-2011. 515 It found that fewer disasters
would have been declared had FEMA updated the indicator to consider increases in personal
income or price inflation for all of the years since 1986. Specifically, GAO found that nearly
half—a full 44 percent—of those disasters would not have met the threshold indicator if the
indicator had been adjusted for changes in income, and that 25 percent would have failed to
qualify had the per capita damage indicator been adjusted for inflation. 516
The use of the per capita damage indicator also creates a bias in favor of declaring
disaster in small-population states. Because the indicator is determined by dividing the dollar
amount of damage by the state’s population, a state with a low population can meet FEMA’s
threshold of $1.37 with a lower amount of damage than a state with a larger population. For
example, in 2013, a major winter storm hit a broad part of the northern Texas and southern
Oklahoma. Both states applied for disaster relief. The estimated amount of damage in Oklahoma
was $6.4 million, which amounted to a statewide damage indicator of $1.70, which met FEMA’s
per capita damage threshold, and led to a declaration covering a number of counties that border
Texas. 517 The preliminary damage assessment for the same winter storm in Texas was $30
million, 518 which fell $5 million short of the number needed to get Texas above the per capita
damage indicator. As a result, FEMA denied Texas’s request for a major disaster declaration in
513 U.S. Government Accountability Office, “Improved Criteria Needed to Assess Jurisdictions Capability to
Respond and Recover on Its Own,” GAO-12-838, September, 2012, pg. 24,
http://www.gao.gov/assets/650/648162.pdf
514 “CPI Inflation Calculator,” http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl, accessed May 23, 2014.
515 U.S. Government Accountability Office, “Improved Criteria Needed to Assess Jurisdictions Capability to
Respond and Recover on Its Own,” GAO-12-838, September, 2012, , pg. 24;
http://www.gao.gov/assets/650/648162.pdf,.
516 U.S. Government Accountability Office “Improved Criteria Needed to Assess Jurisdictions Capability to
Respond and Recover on Its Own,”, GAO-12-838, September, 2012, , p. 24;
http://www.gao.gov/assets/650/648162.pdf,.
517 “Oklahoma – Sever Winter Storm,” FEMA.gov, January 30, 2014; pg. 2, http://www.fema.gov/media-librarydata/1393619267269-e777eab6d237c9da9fce6405e2c9107a/PDA+Report+FEMA-4164-DR-OK.pdf,
.
518 “Texas Severe Winter Storm – Denial of Appeal,” FEMA, April 15, 2014; http://www.fema.gov/medialibrary/assets/documents/95015,.
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