Global Megatrends

GLOBAL INVESTOR 2.09 Focus — 20
Aging trend is an issue
for the whole world,
but at different speeds
The developed world is in the middle
of a seismic demographic shift. By 2050,
the number of people in Japan over
60 years old will almost equal the population
in the 15–59 range. Other Western
countries are faced with the same aging
trend, albeit less pronounced. Even developing
countries such as India will have
to deal with the far-reaching consequences
eventually. This is a truly global issue.
0–14
15–59
60+
80+
0–14
15–59
60+
80+
0–14
15–59
60+
80+
0–14
15–59
60+
80+
0–14
15–59
60+
80+
India
2005
2050
Japan
2005
2050
USA
2005
373,104 (33%)
673,848 (59.6%)
84,796 (7.5%)
7,914 (0.7%)
293,712 (18.2%)
325,988 (20.2%)
50,028 (3.1%)
17,715 (13.9%)
76,087 (59.7%)
33,647 (26.4%)
6,118 (4.8%)
11,487 (11.3%)
45,543 (44.8%)
44,730 (44%)
15,757 (15.5%)
62,970 (20.8%)
50,255 (16.6%)
10,596 (3.5%)
994,101 (61.6%)
189,516 (62.6%)
able to continue. Thus, whereas earlier generations would refrain
from spending their hard-earned money in old age, today’s retirees
are active, go traveling, renovate their houses and buy luxury cars.
Consequently, it comes as no surprise that the average age of a
Porsche buyer is 58. Being above 60 no longer means looking,
behaving and acting in the image of a grandparent of yesteryear.
Rather, instead of simply adapting their services and products to
this newly discovered consumer group, many commercial services
and industries are creating and redefining “age” as sexy, inventing
euphemisms for “old” and making it easy for the older consumer to
identify with the concept of the “young old.” Much of this change in
mindset is manifested in the so-called “woopies” (well-off old people)
or “best agers.”
The adventurous old
Nevertheless, today’s and tomorrow’s retirees are more than just
the ’68 generation. They are selective consumers with several decades
of consumer experience: not only do they know what they
want, what quality they strive for, and what price they are willing to
pay, but, most importantly, they can afford to be selective. They are
also creative and innovative – marketing companies need to realize
that not only the young are trendsetters or willing to try new things.
An increasing number of older people are very open to technological
change and willing to use and test all kinds of new gadgets that will
make their life easier and keep them independent. This will also
apply increasingly to health, and it is the older generation – often
living with one or more chronic ailments – who will want to manage
their own care for as long as possible in order to continue living at
home and remain integrated in the community.
Thus we are faced with a seminal change in our societies; we
must start to imagine social solidarity and cooperation between
young and old, rich and poor, and healthy and ailing populations in
new ways. No society has yet had to deal with all three combinations
at the same time, so our health and social security systems
will have to be dramatically revamped. In doing so, we need to remember
this is not about “them” – older people – this is about “us”–
the whole of society. Nitin Desai, Special Advisor to the Secretary-
General of the United Nations, has expressed this forcefully in the
foreword to the World Aging Situation 2000: “We are all constituents
of an aging society, rural and city dwellers, public and private
sector identities, families and individuals, old and young alike. It is
crucial that societies adjust to this human paradigm as record numbers
of people live into very old age, if we are to move towards a
society for all ages. Let us continue the dialogue and build on partnerships
that can bring us closer to a society that weaves all ages
into the larger human community in which we thrive.”
0–14
15–59
60+
80+
2050
69,880 (17.3%)
226,202 (56%)
108,254 (26.8%)
30,699 (7.6%)
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Highlights. United Nations.
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