Global Megatrends

GLOBAL INVESTOR 2.09 Focus — 25
Science or
science fiction?
Robots and automated machines are already part of our everyday lives, providing huge benefits
in fields from medicine to transportation and manufacturing. But, says Rolf Pfeifer, Professor at the
University of Zurich’s Department of Informatics, many challenges lie ahead if robots are to
emulate humans, given the complexities of our own species.
Rolf Pfeifer, Professor at the Department of Informatics, University of Zurich
1818
Mary Shelley publishes
“Frankenstein,” written
after a challenge from
Lord Byron to compose
a supernatural tale.
1832
Charles Babbage develops
the principles
of the “Analytical
Engin e” – the world’s
first computer.
Reports about robots appear in the media almost every day – stories
about robot “waiters” or vacuum cleaners, exoskeleton suits that
give paraplegics the ability to walk again, hand prostheses that can
be controlled by the power of imagination, wheelchairs that respond
to brain waves, and “surgical assistants” (micromanipulators) for
minimally invasive, high-precision operations.
Even though some of these scenarios might arouse skepticism,
most people agree that this kind of technology potentially poses
tremendous benefits for the quality of life, the environment and
society in general. Robots can be deployed wherever the task at
hand is dangerous or unpleasant for humans. They can be used to
permanently and flexibly monitor environmental conditions, human
health and the security of buildings, installations, plants and facilities.
They can also be employed for clean-up operations and janitorial
tasks, and to help ill or disabled people and the rapidly aging
population to cope with everyday life. In the year 2011, more than
18 million robots will populate the earth compared with 7.5 million
in 2007, according to EU estimates.
Some of these robot types are prototypes, while some are now
in daily deployment. And engineers and scientists are already busy
in their laboratories doing research on the next generation of machines,
which includes robots that no longer need to be programmed,
but instead learn like humans through imitation, from
demonstration or by being told. Or household robots that not only
tidy up, clean and cook, but also act as actual partners with whom
people can discuss cares and concerns and share experiences – a
concept that is being pursued intensively in Japan, for example.
Sophisticated ways to connect robots directly to the human nervous
system are also being sought, which could be useful in developing
new kinds of wheelchairs and prosthetics. Researchers are
also pressing ahead with robot development in the miniature realm.
One day, doctors should be able to inject millimeter-sized robotic
“bacteria” into the human bloodstream to deliver medication to exactly
the right spot, to unblock an obstructed artery or detect and
remove cancer cells.
These developments leave some people wondering where this
will all lead. What if robots suddenly become more intelligent than
humans, as certain self-styled technology prophets are trying to
“prove” using pseudoscientific arguments? What if these machines
develop consciousness and feelings of superiority, and attempt to
enslave or exterminate humanity? And what if robot development
gets out of control and machines start to replicate themselves?
Today’s limited automatons
Of course, automated assistants that work for us around the clock
without our active involvement are nothing new; they have been
around for a long time in the form of air conditioners, telephone exchanges,
Internet servers and factory robots that weld motors or fill >