The Intelligence Review | volume 2 | issue 3 |

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the international community, represented by the UN, view the continuing presence of Turkish troops on the island as an illegal occupation. Even though the island was divided, the Republic of Cyprus joined the European Union (EU) on May 1, 2004. During the same year, the UN proposed a referendum to reunify the island, which was approved by the Turkish Cypriots but rejected by the Greek Cypriots (Kambas and Karadeniz 2017). Arbitration by the UN drove a wedge between the two communities, leaving the leaders of the UN, Greek Cypriots, and Turkish Cypriots to reconstruct a cohesive plan. Not only did the failed arbitration show that the UN had limited influence on the state of affairs, it also showed that the two communities on the island were not equally prepared for reunification. The current leader of the Greek Cypriot people is Nicos Anastasiades. Elected to office in 2013, President Anastasiades has been working in conjunction with Mustafa Akinci, President of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. Both leaders have publicly announced that they wish to reunify Cyprus in the future. However, external political figures, like Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and UN Special Advisor Espen Barth Eide, should be expected to contribute to the success or failure of the reunification process. Additionally, an increasingly difficult internal factor for Cyprus’s reunification will be the National Popular Party (ELAM), a small but vocal far-right Greek Cypriot political group, which opposes talks with the north. Recent Developments In early February 2017, the Greek Cypriot government passed a ruling which would allow for secondary schools to honor the Enosis (Union) Referendum, a proposal led in 1950 by the Christian Orthodox church, aiming to unify Cyprus with Greece. Records show that, nearly 96 percent of Greek Cypriots voted in favor of the annexation at that time (Christou 2017). But the 1950 proposal was not backed by British authorities and only the Greek Cypriots took part in the vote. Although the Enosis referendum failed to pass, some prounion Greek Cypriots see it as a historic moment in the age-old struggle for union with Greece, which many Greek Cypriots see as their motherland. As many Greek Cypriots view the 1950 Enosis Referendum as the first step towards independence from Britain, some Turkish Cypriots see the attempt to unify with Greece as the beginning of a communal division. Therefore, the recent proposal to commemorate the bill has raised tensions between the two sides on the island. Recently, when the Cypriot leaders met under UN sponsorship to deliberate over the reunification progress, Mustafa Akinci attempted to discuss the Enosis Day bill but the request was allegedly declined. Shortly after the request was denied, Akinci and his delegation abandoned the meeting. Despite calls from Eide and Anastasiades to resume talks, Akinci warned that “the talks ‘will be pointless’ if Anastasiades doesn’t distance himself from parliament’s vote “regarding the Enosis commemoration (Anon. 2017a). To further-complicate an already complex situation, the Enosis commemorative bill was proposed by ELAM, the far-right Greek party, which gained their first two seats in the Cypriot House of Representatives in the 2016 election. ELAM reportedly has ties to Greece’s far-right-wing group Golden Dawn (Stefanini 2017). In addition, ELAM opposes the creation of two constituent states, which would be overseen by a federal government, and argues that the Turkish military occupation of Cyprus must be brought to an end (Stefanini 2017). The bill was opposed 24
y the House of Representatives’ second largest party, the Progressive Party of Working People (AKEL), but the House’s largest party, the Democratic Rally (DISY) abstained in the vote. DISY’s abstention allowed the bill to receive enough votes to pass through the House. Things could have been different if Anastasiades party, DISY, opposed the vote. That would have caused the bill to fail to receive enough votes. On the other hand, Anastasiades’ party’s abstention from the vote indicates that he may be trying to have all parties involved in the reunification process. If DISY voted for the passing of Enosis Day commemoration, it would have severed ties with the Turkish Cypriot leadership. By DISY taking a neutral stance, it allowed for other House parties to deliberate over the bill without influence from the largest party. This could have been an indirect attempt to see where the rest of the parliament stands on the readiness of reunification. Despite the seemingly tic-for-tac politics in Cyprus, there have been progressive steps towards reunification. Recently Exxon Mobil signed an exploration- and productionsharing contract with the government of the Republic of Cyprus. The contract was approved by the official Cypriot Government and Mr. Anastasiades. Although the drilling will take place off the southern shores of Cyprus, Northern Cyprus and Turkish President Erdogan could profit remarkably. Egypt’s deep-water Zohr gas field is the largest in the Eastern Mediterranean (Anon. 2017b). It lies south of the boundary line on Block 11 in Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The discovery of natural gas in the EEZ could turn the nation into the new hub for fossil fuels in the Eastern Mediterranean. If directing a pipeline into Southern Turkey is proposed, Turkey could profit extraordinarily. Routing this gas back into southern EU nations may relieve some of the dependence of Europe on Russian fossil fuels. But not everyone agrees that the gas exploration will result in a friendly conclusion. Former Undersecretary of the TRNC Presidency, Mustafa Ergun Olgun, stated in a recent interview that if the Greek Cypriot government continues to explore for hydrocarbons, it could result in a bloody conflict between the two sides (Olgun 2017). In the likelihood that Erdogan continues to seek EU membership, this may be the biggest bargaining chip in recent years he has had to play with. But this may change due to the passing of the recent referendum in Turkey, which consolidated the powers of the parliament to a single executive position, the president —a position currently held by Erdogan. Conclusion Although the concept of reunification may seem improbable to some, the strongest influencing factor will be the Greek and Turkish Cypriots. Though politicians should work for the needs of the republic, the leadership is expected to adhere to the requests of the citizens. A potential reunification of this divided country may be the first step in stabilizing a notoriously unstable region. In the meantime, the likelihood of Cyprus reunifying in 2017 is rapidly vanishing. It can be stated with high confidence that the island will not come closer to reunification this year. To many, the proposal of reunification appears to be a nostalgic idea from the past. Still, a reunification would not only be a victory for the wider region, but also for the EU, which has struggling with its own divisions in recent years. 25
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