The Intelligence Review | volume 2 | issue 3 |

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In relation to this, specific pieces of legislation were created in compliance with the Paris Agreement in the 2016 fiscal year during the Obama administration. They included pollution limits for power plants and fuel efficiency and pollution standards for vehicles. They were regulated and enforced by the EPA in 46 civil and 81 criminal lawsuits against various American companies, cities and states (EPA 2017). When asked about the impact that the Trump administration’s cuts would have on the Paris Agreement, White House budget director Mick Mulvaney stated that the administration simply “went to what the President said during the campaign and turned those policies into numbers” (US Office 2017). Recent developments saw increased Republican Party support for withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. On April 14, 2017, a statement from EPA Administrator Pruitt said that “Paris is something that we need to really look at closely. It’s something we need to exit in my opinion” (Mooney 2017). This was supported by EPA transition team head Ebell, who said that “if the US were to stay in [the agreement] but followed through on its [EPA] commitments, it would face a continual uproar over its policies”. Ebell went on to repeat his belief that “kind and gentle international postures will not be effective”, but that the nation must also remove itself from the Paris Agreement all together in order to ensure consistency in America’s national and global environmental positions (Eilperin 2017). In the wake of the June decision to withdraw from the agreement, dissent has rung just as loudly as support, with Republican leaders such as Senator Rand Paul tweeting that the decision is “great news for the economy”, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnel’s stated praise for “dealing yet another significant blow to the Obama administration’s assault on domestic energy production and jobs” (Mascaro 2017). Conclusion It initially seemed that the protests of some of the wealthiest businesses and investors in the US may have the influence necessary to mitigate the resolve of the Trump administration to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. Yet, confirmation of Trump’s choice of Scott Pruitt as EPA Administrator brought with it a revitalized commitment to halt America’s involvement in the Paris Agreement. According to the President of the Environmental Working Group, Ken Cook, “Trump’s budget proposal would effectively cripple the EPA’s ability to do anything on behalf of public health and environmental protection, and leave local and state governments on their own in fighting climate change, water contamination, and air pollution from toxic industries” (Hulac 2017). These cuts ensure that the EPA will be unable to effectively carry out its stated mission, particularly as it pertains to its role in carrying out US commitments to the Paris Climate Agreement. Despite having four years in which to act before the formal withdrawal is implemented, US involvement in the Paris Climate Agreement will be crippled. By financially gutting the EPA, the Trump administration has effectively achieved its desired result of stymying US action on climate change, thus diminishing any need to enact Article 28, which would allow for withdrawal within a year. As such, it can be stated with low confidence that the US will not withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement during Trump’s presidency. 34
References Cited Boland, M.C. (2014) “Adapting Like the Animals: The Endangered Species Act as a Model for Human Adaptations to Climate Change”, Brooklyn Journal of International Law, 40(1), pp247-277. Eilperin, J. (2017) “There’s a ‘Realistic Chance’ that Trump Won’t Bail on the Paris Climate Agreement”, The Washington Post, 14 March , accessed 17 April 2017. Environmental Protection Agency (2017) “Civil Cases and Settlements”, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, United States, 16 March , accessed 16 March 2017. Environmental Protection Agency (2017) “Summary of Criminal Prosecutions”, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, United States, 16 March , accessed 16 March 2017. Gensler, L. (2017) ”The World’s Largest Oil and Gas Companies 2016”, Forbes, 26 May. Hulac, B., and Chemnick, J. (2017) “Future of Paris Accord Uncertain as Tillerson Becomes Secretary of State”, Scientific American, 2 February. King, L. (2017) “EPA Lifts Temporary Freeze on Grants to States”, USA Today, 26 January , accessed 15 February 2017. Korte, G. (2017) “The 62 Agencies and Programs Trump Wants to Eliminate”, USA Today, 16 March , accessed 16 March 2017. Mascaro, L. (2017) “Trump’s Decision to Withdraw from Paris Climate Change Accord Splits Congress”, Los Angeles Times,1 June , accessed 23 August 2017. Maslin, M. (2004) Global Warming: A Very Short Introduction, Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon, Oxford, pp4-24 Merica, D. (2017) “Trump Budget Chief on Climate Change”, CNN Politics, 16 March , accessed 16 March 2017. Mooney, C. (2017) “Scott Pruitt Calls for an ‘Exit’ From the Paris Accord Sharpening the Trump White House’s Climate Rift”, The Washington Post, 14 April , accessed 17 April 2017. Tollefson, J. (2017) “Trump’s Pick for Secretary of State Backs Paris Climate Accord”, Scientific American, 12 January. United Nations (n.d.). “The Paris Agreement”, Framework Convention on Climate Change , accessed 16 March 2017. US Office of Management and Budget (2017) “America First: The Budget Blueprint to Make America Great Again”, Office of Management and Budget, Washington, DC, United States. , accessed 16 March 2017. 35
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