All small

The trend of waning solidarity and diminishing
sense of a unified goal in Israel
continues to unfold. The tension between
right and left is on the rise, fed by irresponsible
fanning of the flames by politicians
and opposite views on the way to keep Israel
a Jewish, democratic, secure, and just
state. Exposure of corruption in government
has become increasingly common damaging
public trust in the state institutions.
Aggressive legislation against democratic
attributes of the state, damage to the delicate
balance among the different branches
of government, and a systematic campaign
aimed at weakening the media, the law enforcement
authorities, and other gatekeepers
of democracy have exacerbated the polarization
in Israeli society. Attacks by extremist
elements and reckless campaigns on
social media against the President, the judiciary,
the IDF and other security organs, and
the repercussions of the dispute surrounding
the shooting of the immobilized terrorist in
Hebron have not abated. The tension between
the country’s Jewish population and
the Arab minority has also continued to
fester, and attempted legislation seeking to
hurt the Arab minority and present it as an
enemy in spite of only very limited involvement
in terror attacks has added fuel to the
fire. On the eve of 2018 severe political
crises and fundamental tensions among the
country’s different tribal identities continue
to challenge Israeli society’s cohesion and
resilience.
Challenges, dilemmas, and
recommendations
Over the past decade, Israel has adapted
successfully to the changing reality of
the Middle East, gaining more military
and political power, and avoiding serious
confrontations and wars. However, the
window of political and military opportunity
provided by the regional crisis and the nuclear
deal with Iran appears to be narrowing.
Consequently, Israel must address ten key
medium term and long term threats and
opportunities.
The "short-of-war" campaign against Iran
and in the northern front. Israel’s major
challenge will be to contend with the infrastructure
established by Iran and its proxies
in Syria and Lebanon. Activity against Hezbollah
buildup over the last decade evoked
no significant retaliation so far. From now
on, a wider and more challenging campaign
against the three enemies in the north: Iran,
Hezbollah, and Syria is essential to address
both Tehran’s buildup there, and possible
retaliation by the Assad regime, Iran,
and Hezbollah, avoiding escalation under
tougher conditions. The main dilemma will
be the tension between impairing enemy
buildup and future threat, and risking imminent
escalation. It is needed to draw rules of
the game for the new environment, through
military action and strategic communication
with the adversaries and Russia, a significant
actor. Israel possesses significant leverage
against Iran and Russia: its ability to
undermine their achievement in preserving
the Assad regime and progressing stability
in Syria.
The ‘first northern war’ (the Third
Lebanon War)
Israel and Hezbollah are not interested in
another war. Nonetheless, the Israeli action
against Iran and Hezbollah, coupled with
lesser urgent need to rescue Assad in Syria,
could lead to escalation to “the first northern
war”. This war could expand into Syria,
and perhaps also involve the Syrian army.
That might be the largest military confrontation
since 1973. Israel must address the
strategic and operative priorities involved
in conducting a campaign against three enemies:
Syria, Hezbollah, and Iran, under
Russian presence.
Specifically, Israel must prepare for three
scenarios: war in Lebanon alone; war in
Lebanon and Syria including Iranians and
Shiites operating in Syria; and war with Iran
itself. Israel has announced that the rules of
the game in Lebanon changed since 2006
because Hezbollah and Lebanon are a single
political/military unit, and the rules for conducting
the campaign will change accordingly.
It will be necessary to engage with
new military threats: accurate ballistic missiles,
air defense systems, UAVs, anti-ship
missiles, and possible attempts to invade
populated locations in the Galilee.
Amending the nuclear deal and containing
Iranian expansion. The joint view of
The US and Israel must be translated into
a “parallel agreement” engaging the Iranian
threat as a whole and focusing on the
nuclear agreement at its core. It should determine
a joint strategy against the range of
Iranian threats with three aims: preventing
Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons or
approaching “zero distance” from a nuclear
weapon; curbing the subversive Iranian
activity and its support of terrorism; and
preventing military capabilities serving solidification
of its influence in the region.
The understandings must be on three layers:
A joint response to the weaknesses of
the nuclear agreement in the short and long
terms. In the short run keeping the agreement
is better than its collapse. It will enable
Israel and the United States to prepare
for the more significant threats in the future.
If Iran is not caught violating the agreement,
it would be ill advised to withdraw
from it. The “parallel agreement” should
define possible Iranian violations, including
a breakout to a bomb, and the responses to
them. It should ensure that Israel can stop
Iran if it decides to break out, and that it
is not dependent on a delayed international
response. Other necessary items of the
agreement include coordination of the intelligence
efforts on top of the international
monitoring, and preventing further nuclear
proliferation in the region.
Parameters for amending the nuclear
agreement
Extending the sunset (on major nuclear
restrictions) clauses, or making them
conditional on a change in Iranian behavior
in the non-nuclear realm; improving
monitoring of the Iranian sites suspected
of military nuclear activities; passing a new
UN Security Council resolution clearly
prohibiting testing of missiles and cruise
missiles capable of carrying a nuclear
warhead; and conditioning end of the
military embargo on weapons supply to Iran
on change in Iranian behavior.
THE JERUSALEM REPORT FEBRUARY 5, 2018 9