Blueprint Germany - Öko-Institut eV

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18 19 PJ 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 Fig. K 9: Final energy consumption by passenger and freight transport in the innovation scenario, broken down according to modes of transport, in PJ, 2005 – 2050 800 600 400 200 0 Transport sector Passenger rail transport Inland waterway transport Short distance public transport - roads Motorised individual Bruttoinlandsprodukt road transport Rail freight transport Road freight transport Bevölkerung Passenger air transport Air cargo transport Direct CO emissions of the transport sector will decline in the innovation scenario in the period from 2 2005 to 2050 from 180 million tonnes to 30 million tonnes, corresponding to a reduction of 83%. • Central elements for the reductions in the transport sector are vehicle efficiency in motorised individual transport, electrification of motorised individual transport and the contribution of freight transport switching to renewable energy sources. • Electric vehicles will be introduced to the passenger car fleet. Vehicles with combustion engines without a hybrid part will no longer be of any relevance after 2045. In 2050, hybrid electric vehicles account for around 36% of cars, plug-in hybrids for 28% and battery electric vehicles for 18%. • By 2040, the average specific energy consumption of new passenger cars with combustion engines declines by approx. 60%. By 2050, the average fleet consumption (calculated over the entire vehicle fleet and performance) falls by 64%; specific CO emissions per vehicle kilometre 2 decline to approx. 40 g per km. • In freight transport, a large part of transport growth shifts to rail transport. Electrification of the HGV fleet is not assumed; this is due to the power density which this requires and for which no battery technologies are foreseeable. Specific consumption by HGVs falls by approx. 25%. • Air traffic performance (domestic principle) declines both for passenger and for freight transport. Between 2005 and 2050, energy efficiency increases by approx. 40%. This means that energy consumption by air traffic falls in total by 10%. • Due to the more efficient vehicles and the efficiency advantage in terms of final energy of electric vehicles and rail transport, final energy consumption by the transport sector declines in total in the period under review by 41%. • In 2005, final energy demand by transport will hence be mainly covered by biofuels (59%) of the second and third generation and by electricity (12%). Hydrogen and gas have a minor role to play. Passenger transport Freight transport Source: Prognos/Progtrans 2009 2005 2030 2050 2005 2030 2050 By 2050, all mineral-oil based fuels in the innovation scenario will be replaced by second and thirdgeneration biofuels. This means that the sustainable biomass potential available in Germany is almost completely exhausted. (This calls for a strategic decision concerning the targeted use of the biomass potential in the transport sector, rather than in favour of the generation of low-temperature heat).
PJ Fig. K 10: Final energy consumption by passenger and freight transport in the innovation scenario, broken down according to energy sources, in PJ, index of direct CO 2 emissions, 2005 – 2050 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Passenger transport Freight transport Index – CO 2 emissions In order to achieve the “Blueprint Germany” in the transport sector, the following strategic safeguards must be put in place: • In the field of motorised individual transport, - transport avoidance or transport shifting should reduce performance by 2030 by around 20% and by 2050 by around 30%; - specific final-energy consumption of the vehicle fleet (including the efficiency effects resulting from electric vehicles) should be reduced by more than 60% by the year 2050; - the aim should be to achieve a 7% share of electric drives in total performance by 2030 and around 50% by 2050; - the aim for the year 2050 should be to achieve almost complete coverage of final energy demand through renewable (biofuels) or emission-free (electricity, hydrogen) energy sources. • In the field of road freight transport, - performance in 2050 should not exceed the current level by more than one third; - specific energy consumption by the entire vehicle fleet should be reduced from today until 2030 by 30% and by 2050 by around 50%; - the entire remaining fuel consumption must be converted to renewable energy sources (biofuels, hydrogen) by 2050. • In the field of air transport, - specific energy consumption by the entire aircraft fleet should be reduced by 20% by the year 2030; - fuel use must be fully converted to regenerative energy (biofuels) by the year 2050. With a view to the political instruments for implementation for the 2030 perspective, this means the following set of measures: • An investment programme to double the capacity of Germany’s rail network by 2030. • An investment programme to boost by 25% the performance of public passenger transport by 2030 (and to make public passenger transport more attractive). • Stricter limit values for passenger cars to be set at 70g of CO 2 per km in 2030 (without the inclusion of biofuels and without the non-inclusion of electric vehicles). • Creation of HGV fleet limit values of about 30% below the current values by 2030 (including the establish- ment of a suitable test cycle and calculation basis); • Increase in the HGV road toll to 50ct per km in 2030, granting of an efficiency bonus and expansion to include all HGV and the entire road network Source: Prognos/Progtrans 2009 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050 • Increase in fuel tax to a level that results in 2030 in a price of €2.50 per litre for conventional petrol. • Considerable increase in the share of biofuels by combining high and reliably verifiable sustainability standards for biomass and a further-developed biofuel quota based on a biomass strategy (the height of the quota is determined by the sustainability standards and the CO -emissions reduction potential) by the year 2030. 2 • A speed limit of 120kph on all motorways. 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Electricity Hydrogen Liquified petroleum gas Natural gas Aviation fuels Diesel from mineral oil Biodiesel Petrol from mineral oil Bioethanol �
Page 1 and 2: Blueprint Germany A strategy for a
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