Blueprint Germany - Öko-Institut eV

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22 23 >> In the variant “with CCS”, CO 2 emissions fall from 323 to 23 million tonnes and hence by 93%. This variant assumes the large-scale availability and implementation of CCS technology. At the same time, it is estimated that the expansion of renewable energy is not fast enough. In this case, new fossil fuel power stations equipped with CCS technology could be erected. In the variant with CCS, it is assumed that starting in 2025, this technology will be the standard, first of all, in new lignite power stations, and starting in 2035, in new hard coal power stations also, and that CO storage is sustainable and safe. No more new coal-fired power stations without CCS 2 technology will be built after 2025. The old coal-fired power stations without CCS will leave the mix by 2046 for reasons of age or economy. In 2050, there are no more coal-fired power stations without CCS in the mix, but there are still 3 GW of hard-coal capacity and 10 GW of lignite capacity with CCS technology. There are still 17 GW of gas power station capacity available to produce peak load energy. The volume of electricity from renewable sources is lower than in the variant without CCS and in Bruttoinlandsprodukt Bevölkerung 2050 totals 243 TWh, accounting for around 66% of the total net electricity volume generated. Conventional baseload power plants also exist. That’s the reason why storage demand is lower than in the variant without CCS, but still has to increase five-fold compared to 2005. The requirements for the expansion and conversion of infrastructural preconditions (transmission grids, smart grids) match those of the variant without CCS and are in line with the somewhat slower increase in renewable energy. In order to achieve the “Blueprint Germany” in the electricity sector, the following strategic safe- guards must be put in place: • By 2030, electricity demand (including new application areas, such as electrification of transport) should be reduced by around 25% until 2030 and subsequently further reduced by 10 percentage points until 2050. • The share of renewable energy in electricity should reach a level of 60% by 2030 and of 95% by 2050. • The remaining fossil electricity generation capacities should only be permitted to operate from 2040 onwards if they are equipped with CCS. • In order to balance out the huge increase in contributions by variable power generation, existing storage capacity (up to now primarily pumped-storage power stations) should be increased by 2030 by a factor of 3.5 and by a factor of 8 by the year 2050. In order to reach these targets, the following set of instruments is proposed: • Introduction of a moratorium for coal-fired power stations without CCS. • Further development of the renewable energy feed-in law (maintaining priority dispatch, innovation-orientated cost degression, promotion of the generation of electricity from biomass only with cogeneration); • Creation of additional market incentives (market model) to provide power and balancing capacity for the different (big and small) consumer groups. • Development of a long-term electricity storage expansion programme that can in the medium and long term supplement the interconnectivity of the German electricity system with neighbouring nations and regions which is also necessary.
PJ 16.000 14.000 12.000 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 Fig. K 14: 0 Primary energy consumption (without non-energetic consumption) in the innovation scenario (variant without CCS), broken down according to energy sources and sectors, index of energy-related CO emissions, 2005 – 2050 2 Primary energy consumption Index – CO 2 emissions Source: Prognos 2009 0 Other conversion 1985 1986 2005 1987 1988 1989 2020 1990 1991 1992 2030 1993 1994 1995 2040 1996 1997 1998 2050 1999 2000 2001 Electricity generation Generation of district heating Hydropower Environmental and Gases Petrol from mineral oil Transport Wind energy waste heat Aviation fuel Fuel oil Industry Solar energy Biomass Biofuels Coal Commercial, trade and Geothermal energy Waste Biogas Diesel from mineral oil Nuclear power Index – CO emissions 2 services sectors Private households Direct energy-related CO 2 emissions decline in the innovation scenario variant without CCS between 2005 and 2050 by 757 million tonnes, or 89%, respectively, and in the variant with CCS by 748 million tonnes, or 88%, respectively. Between 2005 and 2050, primary energy consumption (without non-energetic consumption) falls by 57% from 13,546 PJ to 5,766 PJ. Consumption of conventional energy sources will decline by 85% whilst use of renewable energy will rise in total by a factor of almost 6. Nuclear power and coal will no longer be part of electricity generation (in the variant without CCS), coal will only be used to a lesser degree in metal production. In the innovation scenario, mineral oil products will only continue to be used as aviation fuel and in residual quantities for the generation of process heat; its consumption will decrease by 91%. Natural gas and other gases are the only fossil sources of energy which will have any kind of a role to play in the mix. They will be used in the services and industrial sector to produce process heat. Gases will also be used to generate peak load energy and balancing energy and to a lesser extent to produce cogenerated electricity (accompanied by low-temperature heat). The use of primary energy in electricity generation will be reduced by 49%. Renewable energy sources with their per-definition excellent efficiency will contribute considerably to this development. The around 74% decline in energy used to generate district heating is largely a consequence of falling demand. In the “other conversion” area, conversion declines due to the fall in the use of mineral oil products. In contrast to this, the increased production of biogas and biofuels leads to greater use of biomass. All in all, the use of energy sources in other conversion changes only slightly (-3%). The substitution of fossil fuels with biofuels and the (reduced) use of biomass and biogas in the generation of electricity and heat result in around 1,700 PJ of biomass being used in total for primary energy. This volume exceeds the potential that can be generated in a strictly sustainable manner in Germany. As a condition for the use of imported biomass from Europe or global markets binding regulations and legal standards for the ecological and social integrity of the biomass have to be implemented. Taking the additional measures of the “Blueprint Germany” into consideration, the share of renewable energy sources in overall primary energy consumption reaches a level of around 43% in 2030, of around 65% in 2040 and around 85% in 2050. 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
Page 1 and 2: Blueprint Germany A strategy for a
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Page 21: TWh 200 Fig. K 12: Net electricity
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Page 29 and 30: Conclusions and outlook: changes in
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Blueprint Germany - Öko-Institut eV

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