Competition Report 2006 - Deutsche Bahn AG

Freight traffi c growth roughly halved
In the year under review, there was less positive impetus
from the economic environment than in 2004,
which led to a more moderate increase in traffi c performance
in the overall German market (rail, inland
shipping, pipelines and road 2 ).Growth totalled approx.
2.7 per cent, based on provisional data, and is thus
around only half the previous year’s level (5.9 per cent).
After an increase of 8.2 per cent in 2004, traffi c performance
in the rail freight market rose by 4.7 per cent
in the year under review. This means that rail enjoyed
better growth than all other transport modes and
succeeded in expanding its market share for the third
year in succession. For the non-DB railways in Germany,
this increase in traffi c performance soared to
approx. 55 per cent, so that their market share of rail
freight transport has increased once again, and now
accounts for around 15.1 per cent.
In the road haulage market, traffi c performance grew
by only an estimated 2.5 per cent against 4.8 per cent in
2004. The reason for this slower growth is again less impetus
from the economic environment. Compared with
their German competitors, foreign trucks booked a far
steeper increase in traffi c performance, again expanding
their market share. Both intra- and intermodal competitive
pressure and pressure on prices remained high.
In the year under review, inland shipping achieved
only a slight increase of 0.8 per cent, far lower than in
2004 (+ 9.5 per cent). Following substantial growth
rates in the fi rst half of the year as part of the recovery
process after the eff ects of the low water in 2003, performance
by inland shipping dropped substantially in
the following months. In addition to declining impetus
from the economy, the fi gures were adversely aff ected
by the extremely low water levels during the last
quarter.
1) Taking into account the review of traffi c performance calculation
by the German Institute of Economic Research (DIW), the
trend for private motorised traffi c, and thus in the overall market,
have been far better since 1994 than previously indicated in the
offi cial statistics. However, owing to several methodological weaknesses
in the calculation of traffi c performance by DIW, the
un revised fi gures still serve as a basis.
2) Road inclusive of local traffi c performance by German trucks
and excluding cabotage traffi c by foreign trucks in Germany.
Market and Competition
Rail expands its passenger transport market share
Economic environment: low positive impetus. (Change from 2004
in per cent)
Gainfully employed*
Disposable income
– nominal
Private consumption – real
Fuel price – nominal
Modal Split: shares of rail and public road transport rose again
at the expense of private car traffi c. (Figures in per cent, basis:
traffi c performance, fi gures rounded)
8.2
8.3
8.6 9.0
100
80
1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1
60
40
20
82.2
8.7
8.9 9.0 9.0
2002 2003
2004 2005**
Rail expands its freight transport market share
Economic environment: slight downturn from previous year.
(Change from 2004 in per cent)
Manufacturing industry
Automotive industry
Crude steel (in tonnes)
Building investments –2.3
81.7
3.1
81.3
4.0
3.6
–4.0
–3.4
80.9
2004 2005*
Modal Split: rail increased at the expense of inland shipping
and road. (Figures in per cent, basis: traffi c performance,
fi gures rounded)
100 15.0 15.5 15.8 16.1
80
60
40
20
0.4
0.6
2004
rail air private car public road
2005**
* new defi nition as from 2005, e.g. including “one-euro jobs”; ** prov. fi gures
Sources: Federal Statistical Offi ce and DB data
69.5 70.3 69.6 69.5
3.9
4.0
12.6 3.0 11.3 3.0 11.7 3.0 11.4 3.0
2002 2003
2004 2005*
*Estimate; Sources: Fed. Statistical Offi ce, Fed. Offi ce for Motor Traffi c and DB data
2.2
rail inland shipping road pipelines
4.4
–0.3
0.0
1.4
8.1
13