PBS AUG1
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BUSINESS SUPPLEMENT<br />
FOREIGN CURRENCY UPDATE<br />
The dollar has had rather a flat month with<br />
the DXY Dollar index, (an index that measures<br />
the US Dollar’s value against a number of other<br />
currencies), moving between 95.5 and 94.1 and<br />
settling at 95.37. This consolidation comes after<br />
several months of a strengthening dollar so it<br />
could signal a pause before another leg higher<br />
rather than a reversal. However much depends<br />
on the outlook for U.S. interest rates and with the<br />
benchmark 10 year yield falling back below 2.9%<br />
rates seem to be muted for now. Look out for hints<br />
from the Federal Reserve for the direction of future<br />
rate policy. Against the Thai Baht, the U.S.<br />
Dollar actually advanced fairly significantly from<br />
32.43 to 33.41 indicating weakness in the Thai<br />
baht.<br />
There has been no real respite for those with<br />
a bullish outlook for the British Pound as it stayed<br />
range bound at its recent lows and then resumed<br />
a move even lower again. It just goes to show that<br />
in the currency markets, enough is never enough.<br />
The British Pound moved from 1.3150 against<br />
the U.S. Dollar to 1.3310 before retreating back<br />
to 1.3200 and then down to 1.3024. The move<br />
could be attributed to a possible no-deal Brexit<br />
scenario, as well as senior resignations from the<br />
UK Government surrounding the ongoing Brexit<br />
negotiations. Against the Thai Baht the British<br />
Pound managed to negate its weakness due to<br />
the softer Thai baht, moving from 43.04 to 43.44.<br />
The US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen cross rate was<br />
the big mover rising from 108.80 to 113.05, a<br />
steep climb. Of course the higher the cross rate,<br />
the weaker the Yen so it’s actually a steep descent<br />
for the Japanese currency. This was also against<br />
a flat dollar indicating that the Yen itself was behind<br />
the move. It may also be driving the trend<br />
of other Asian currencies weakening. Against the<br />
Thai Baht, since it weakened also, the net result<br />
was a flat month with the currency moving just<br />
slightly from 0.2934 to 0.2936<br />
Despite one or two dips below 62 to the U.S.<br />
Dollar, the Russian Ruble was largely flat against<br />
its American counterpart. It moved from 63.68 to<br />
63.36 in trade that was choppy but constrained.<br />
The Trump-Putin summit did little to affect the value<br />
of the Russian currency. Against the Thai Baht,<br />
the Ruble was up from 0.5160 to 0.5500 reflecting<br />
Thai baht weakness during the period.<br />
The Euro has suffered a similar fate as the<br />
British Pound of late, consolidating after a significant<br />
sell off during the past few months with little<br />
in the way of a rebound. Attempts to break the<br />
Euro through 1.1750 against the US Dollar failed<br />
and the Euro settled at 1.1616. Whether further<br />
falls are ahead is difficult to tell but the weakness<br />
certainly persists for now judging by the<br />
inability of the Euro to climb meaningfully from<br />
its lows. Against the Thai Baht, the Euro rose<br />
from 37.60 to 38.75 due to Thai baht weakness.<br />
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