DCN0718_Combined_150

INFOGRAPHICS
Winter crop: Wheat and barley
volumes forecast to rise
With production volumes expected to rise for wheat and barley, other commodities
are expected to see a decline in production, writes Oliver Probert
PRODUCTION OF WHEAT AND
barley are set to rise in the coming
2018/19 winter crop, but volumes of less
common commodities like canola and
chickpeas are set to drop, according to
the latest winter crop report from the
Department of Agriculture.
Its June Crop Report suggests overall
winter crop production will decline
ever so slightly to 37.7m tonnes in the
2018/19 crop year, which refers to the 12
months ending March 31.
This would be down a little from the
estimated winter crop production in the
2017/18 crop year, which the Department
has calculated at 37.8m tonnes.
Relatively stable production between
the two seasons will be driven by an
increase in barley and wheat production,
and a decrease in production of canola
and chickpeas.
Dr Steve Hatfield-Dodds, executive
director of the Department of
Agriculture’s statistics division, said
the mixed outlook for Australia’s
winter crops was the result of lower
than average autumn rainfall, which
“significantly” constrained farmers’
planting intentions.
“The total area planted to winter
crops is forecast to decrease by 4% to
21m hectares,” Hatfield-Dodds said.
“This includes a drop in area planted to
canola, chickpeas and lentils.”
Area planted to barley is forecast to
increase 10% to 4.3m hectares, and this
will drive a small production increase of
3% to 9.2m tonnes. Wheat production is
also forecast to grow 3%, to 22m tonnes.
Meanwhile, canola production is
forecast to fall 16% to 3.1m tonnes, and
chickpea production is set to drop a
significant 40% to 616,000 tonnes. But,
Australia’s oats production is forecast to
remain relatively unchanged clocking in
at 1.1m tonnes.
Hatfield-Dodds said sufficient and
timely winter rainfall would be critically
important for crop development, as lower
layer soil moisture at the end of autumn
was recorded below to very much below
average across most cropping regions.
However, the latest BoM analysis
suggests winter rainfall between June
and August 2018 is likely to be around
average in cropping regions in Western
Australia, but below average in most
other cropping regions.
The Department of Agriculture’s
analysis is more positive than that of
agribusiness bank Rabobank, which
recently noted that very low soil
moisture levels across Australia would
curb yield prospects, and could also limit
further plantings into the future.
Rabobank’s analysis forecasts
Australia’s total winter crop will be
just 36.5m tonnes, over 2m tonnes
lower than what the Department of
Agriculture is forecasting.
“High-end yield prospects have been
removed, certainly for canola, but
increasingly for wheat and barley with
average yields, and in some cases lessthan-average
yields considered likely,”
Rabobank senior grains and oilseeds
analyst Cheryl Kalisch Gordon said.
Ms Kalisch said the Australian
winter wheat crop was expected to
come in between 18m and 28m tonnes,
depending on yields and further
planting, which would depend on
further rainfall patterns.
“If we see a wheat crop of 23m
tonnes, we could see Australian wheat
exports fall to their lowest level in nine
years at 15.5m tonnes,” Kalish said.
Figures in million tonnes. *ABARES estimate. **ABARES forecast. Crop year refers to 12 months to March 31.
54
First published in 1891
July 2018
thedcn.com.au