Housebuilder October 2018
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Housing Market Intelligence Report<br />
Graph 11. What’s constraining home sales?<br />
(% saying that factor is constraining sales)<br />
100<br />
80<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
0<br />
Jun 08<br />
Jun 10<br />
Jun 12<br />
Jun 14<br />
Buyer confidence<br />
Mortgage availability<br />
House prices<br />
Debys chains<br />
Jun 16<br />
Graph 11: HBF quarterly survey of constraints on sales of new homes<br />
Source: Housing Market Report<br />
There are signs that buyer<br />
confidence has been shaken to<br />
some extent following the EU<br />
referendum, but the level of<br />
constraint this appears to be<br />
causing is less than in 2006<br />
Jun 18<br />
Continued from page 34<br />
on the housebuilding sector’s ability to raise its sales. But the Help to Buy equity loan<br />
scheme has supported growth in sales within the new build sector despite little or no<br />
growth in the wider market. However, there will be a limit to the effect of this support,<br />
as the new build share grows, further expansion will become ever harder to achieve.<br />
The picture painted by the HBF’s quarterly survey figures on constraints to sales<br />
(Graph 11) does not suggest there are too many major issues impeding sales. The<br />
most constricting factor appears to be delays relating to chains. This is an effect that<br />
one might expect with lower liquidity in the overall housing market.<br />
There are signs that buyer confidence has been shaken to some extent following<br />
the EU referendum, but the level of constraint this appears to be causing is less than<br />
in 2006.<br />
conclusion<br />
It may seem odd to be in a similar position to a year ago with hugely mixed feeling,<br />
looking positively at a very strong performance from the housebuilding sector, both<br />
financially and operationally, on one hand and on the other hand still to be left<br />
concerned that there may be deep and dangerous potholes in the road ahead.<br />
For those looking to plan their way ahead it seems a pragmatic approach is in order,<br />
and this seems to be how most housebuilding firms are handling things. Focus on<br />
those things you can control with confidence and good sense, while being aware of<br />
those you can not control and build resilience in case the worst should happen. hb<br />
36 housebuilder october <strong>2018</strong>
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