DCN October Edition 2019

LINER TRADES TO THE AMERICAS
Container ship Olga Maersk sailing close to Wellington, NZ
liftings rose by 4.3% - to 231,800 TEU (2017:222,300 TEU, 2016:
223,200 TEU). For the final three months of 2018 average freight
rates rose southbound, but by no more than 4%, while northbound
rates were mostly stagnant (no no-one’s surprise).
CTS figures come with the usual asterisk: “it should
be noted that CTS statistics may be substantially revised
afterwards, when new information and corrections are
processed”, and the underscore that carriers at this end of
Australasian trades often find poor correlation with the
figures compiled in the northern hemisphere.
THE TRADE IN MEAT
The stars of the northbound trade – meat and wine - are shining
brightly this year.
Meat & Livestock Australia reports that global beef demand has
been strong so far in 2019, particularly among Australia’s major
export markets. In the first half of the year, total beef exports
increased 6% and grainfed shipments reached record levels.
Shipments to the US have increased 8% amid strong demand
for lean frozen manufacturing beef to offset the swelling volume
of domestic fatty trim, MLA says, while orders for chilled grassfed
primal cuts also recorded solid growth.
A left-of-field influencer could well be the widespread outbreaks
6 %In the first half of the year, total beef
exports increased 6% and grainfed
shipments reached record levels
26 October 2019
of African swine flu amongst Chinese pig herds. More than a
third of the country’s pig population has now been wiped out –
some 100m animals – and the disease is present in all mainland
provinces and reportedly spreading to neighbouring countries,
including Mongolia, Russia, Vietnam and Cambodia.
Pork import replacements are simply not capable of meeting
demand and so China has looked to source replacement meats,
especially beef, from Australia. One shipping line reports an 82%
increase year-on-year in beef shipments from Brisbane to China,
alone, while MLA says China-led growth across both high and
lower value product, expanding 59% year-on-year in the first six
months of 2019. Will this demand divert beef from North America?
“The US will always want what they want [of Australian beef]
The stars of the northbound trade –
meat and wine - are shining brightly
this year.
and pay the price,” an executive confidently predicts. “They’re still
taking the cheaper cuts [ground beef for burgers] and we’re quite
happy to sell them … it’s a marriage of convenience.”
As for sheepmeats, MLA reports that drought-constrained supply
combined with strong demand – again from China and the USA –
has kept domestic farmgate prices high, while a declining Australia
dollar and limited competition has underpinned export growth.
“After years of contraction, per capita US sheepmeat
consumption has been edging higher since 2013, underpinned
by growing familiarity and willingness to try lamb amongst
millennials, increased incidence on US menus and a post-GFC
economic recovery,” MLA says.
Australian lamb exports during the first four months of 2019
jumped 27% year-on-year, to 23,000 tonnes shipped weight,
spurred on by limited supply coming off Colorado feedlots. New
thedcn.com.au
Ventura