DCN October Edition 2019

INDUSTRY ANALYTICS
Varied conditions and modest
prospects for winter crops
The latest report from the Australia Bureau of Agricultural
and Resource Economics reveals mixed prospects for Australia’s winter crop
WINTER CROP PRODUCTION IS
forecast to rise by 11% in 2019–20 to 33.9
million tonnes but falls short of the 10-year
average to 2018-19 by 16%.
Wheat and canola production is forecast
to increase 10% and 6% respectively, but
both are expected to fall significantly below
the 10-year average to 2018-19.
Barley production is forecast to increase
by 14% to around 9.5 million tonnes which
brings it 6% above the 10-year average.
“Crop production deteriorated in regions
across New South Wales and Queensland,
due to unfavourable growing conditions
over winter. Crop production in these states
is forecast to be very much below average,”
according to ABARES acting executive
director Peter Gooday.
“On the other hand, crops in Victoria
were in good to very good condition at the
beginning of spring thanks to generally
favourable growing conditions over winter.
“Crops in Western Australia received
timely winter rainfall to help boost yield
prospects to around average for most crops
after a late break to the season.
WINTER CROP PRODUCTION, AUSTRALIA, 2014-15 TO 2019-20 (KT)
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
33,866
2019-20 f
30,433
2018-19 s
38, 396
2017-18
f ABARES forecast. s ABAR ES estimate. Notes: Includes barley, canola, chickpeas, faba beans, field peas, lentils, linseed,
lupins, oats, safflower, triticale and wheat. Due to a change in scope by the ABS of its agricultural data collections, crop
production is shown for establishments with an estimated value of agricultural operations (EVAO) of $5,000 or more
until 2014-15, and an EVAO of $40,000 or more from 2015-16.
56,678
2016-17
37,687
2015-16
39,197
2014-15
“South Australia received sufficient
winter rainfall in most major growing
regions, but the same can’t be said for
northern cropping regions with their
prospects generally below average.
“Early spring rainfall will be important
to final crop outcomes.”
According to the latest seasonal outlook
issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, early
spring rainfall is likely to be above average
in Western Australia and below average
in most other cropping regions. October
rainfall is likely to be below average in most
cropping regions.
“If realised, above average September
rainfall in Western Australia would give
cereal crops in the state a strong chance of
achieving average to above average yields,”
Mr Gooday said.
Mr Gooday said the seasonal conditions
outlook for early spring in eastern
Australia is likely to constrain crop
prospects in southern New South Wales,
and northern cropping regions in Victoria
and South Australia.
However, there’s a good chance that
most cropping regions in southern Victoria,
and central and southern South Australia
will still achieve average yields.
Mr Gooday said outlook for summer
crops is unfavourable due to poor seasonal
conditions in northern New South Wales
and Queensland.
“Area planted to summer crops is
forecast to fall by 28% in 2019–20 to
around 758,000 hectares — production
of grain sorghum, cotton and rice are all
forecast to fall,” Mr Gooday said.
Smileus
58 October 2019
thedcn.com.au