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Bangkok April 2021

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BUSINESS SUPPLEMENT

FOREIGN CURRENCY UPDATE

The U.S. Dollar

The U.S. Dollar reversed

recent losses as the interest

rate on the 10-year note

rose to its highest level in 14

months, testing 1.75 per cent.

The DXY Dollar index, the index

that measures the U.S.

Dollar’s value against a basket

of major currencies, rose from

89.94 to 91.74. Against the

Thai Baht, the U.S. Dollar rose

quite strongly from a recent flat

line of 30.00, (which had been

a closely contested level for

several months) up to 30.65, a

two per cent increase.

The British Pound

After hitting a recent high at

1.4170, The British Pound fell

back to 1.3833 before steadying

at 1.3870. This could mark

the end of long bull run, or it

may simply be a temporary

retracement ahead of further

rises. With uncertainties about

Brexit largely now out of the

picture, the latter scenario

could take precedent. Yet a

stronger U.S Dollar has arguably

been behind the Pound’s

losses. Against the Thai Baht,

the Pound gained ground

slightly due to the stronger Dollar

outweighing the small pullback

of late. The Pound stood

at 42.75 rising from 42.06. If

the pound regains strength

against the U.S. dollar then the

rise against the Thai Baht could

continue in earnest.

The Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen weakened

against the U.S. Dollar

from 105.71 to 108.90. When

the USDJPY rate rises, this indicates

a fall in the value of the

Yen since a dollar buys more

Yen than it did previously. Once

again, U.S. Dollar strength is

likely to be behind the move,

although the Yen may have

lost ground as it gave up some

of its safe haven status in reaction

to rising stock markets

and other risk assets. Against

the Thai Baht, the Yen fell very

slightly from 0.2814 to 0.2806

The Russian Ruble

The Russian Ruble has continued

to trade in a very tight

range against the U.S. Dollar

moving from 74.33 to 74.06.

The millpond action suggests

volatility may be ahead since it

represents maximum disagreement

between buyers and sellers.

Against the Thai Baht the

Ruble moved from 0.4010 to

0.4154, following the weakening

of the Thai Baht against the

US Dollar.

The Euro

The Euro butted heads with

the 1.2200 mark against the

US Dollar but could not hold

that level, giving back recent

gains to trade down to 1.1908.

U.S. Dollar strength only gave

more impetus to potentially end

what may have already been a

fading rally. ECB and Federal

Reserve decisions were both

mildly dovish and so it will be

for the markets to decide the

next move. Against the Thai

Baht, the Euro fell slightly from

36.85 to 36.62.

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