Diplomatic World 67

Certainly, values are important for us, but we must also stay realistic.
We do not like the attitude of many ideologists, to give an
illusion of making the world a better place. We want to add value
by better information. And truth, even if it hurts, is necessary for
a healthy progress.
THIS LEADS DIRECTLY TO THE STATE OF THE
WORLD. INCREASING GEOPOLITICAL INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH SIMULTANEOUS GLOBAL PROB-
LEMS (PANDEMIC CONTROL, GLOBAL WARMING)
WHICH CAN ONLY BE TACKLED WITH A JOINT
EFFORT. CAN THE WORLD STILL BE SAVED?
Unfortunately, I must say politics have become very ideological
and emotional – from all sides. It was much easier during the
Cold War when it was clearly defined who was good and who
was bad, but nobody wanted the neutral distraction. If we look
at the present crisis around the Ukraine, I’m very sorry for them
because they are the ball in this game. I have the impression that
the decisions of the West lack sufficient knowledge and willingness
to try to understand how the Russians think. We do not
need to agree to what they are doing but we need to be aware
how they think. What makes this so difficult is the lack of realism
and pragmatism. We should support Ukraine. I fully agree to that.
But it is not creditable enough.
We should start negotiating – without preconditions. Of course,
there are other issues: China and Taiwan. And not to forget, there
is the economic issue. We have huge problems with the supply
chains, we will face strong inflation – and this is an unsolved
problem especially as we still try to ignore it. This is really dangerous
because inflation hurts societies, it hurts the middle class
and old people. How will our democracies deal with that? I think
we should be brutally honest and clear without trying appeasement
politics. We are going directly into a crisis. I do not want
to be too pessimistic. Mankind needs crisis and we are a very
resistant race. We need this crisis to wake up.
WHILE THE PANDEMIC (HOPEFULLY) SEEMS TO
BE SLOWLY COMING TO AN END, THE CLIMATE
ISSUE IS COMING BACK INTO FOCUS. HOW ARE
WE POSITIONED HERE?
Mankind regularly constructs scenarios about the end of the
world. When the year 1000 after Christ came, many people
believed it would be the end of the world. When the year 2000
approached, we talked about Y2K problem. Mankind has survived
many and very violent epidemics. Covid is therefore not
an exception in history.
Certainly, epidemics spread faster and faster around the globe
through better transportation, but as we can see we learned
to live with it. It might even be a certain warning and help us
to understand that crises can come, and we need a better civil
protection against diseases, catastrophes or other problems like
cyber break downs or electricity black outs. The idea to solve
every issue on super-national, global level is an illusion. Certainly,
global learning is very helpful but as people are different, regions
are different, countries are different, habits are different a lot must
be done on a regional and local level.
Looking for remedies by cartelization and centralisation might
work in a few cases but in general it is a disaster. We must
think more about collaboration than about centralization and
harmonization. A big issue is that so-called climate debate. The
danger of this is that it gets very dogmatic. We have the big need
to contain and reduce pollution and waste. We tried now with a
global top-down approach setting temperature and CO2 targets.
Not everybody will participate and it is also not sure that we can
reach it by human measures. We should rather try a bottom-up
way to contain pollution and waste. Politics in this area is a difficult
issue as certain countries will not follow.
Ideology is another problem because measures are getting
very pragmatic and not measured. For instance, in a dogmatic
way Germany phased-out nuclear. That led to an increased use
of brown coal to produce energy. This is just what should not
happen, but politics sticks to it. General efforts must continue
but it would be very important to find pragmatic ways to provide
energy in a cleaner way also for countries and regions like China,
Indonesia, India and Africa. But on the other hand, nature had
always changed the climate and climate will always change. So,
we must live with these changes. However, we must find ways
to protect the environment. Thinking that we can stop climate
change might be fatal because it does. I would not be too pessimistic.
Although the world and nature never have stability or
safety, the world will go on.
A RATHER GENERAL QUESTION AT THE END: HOW
DO YOU PERSONALLY SEE THE FUTURE OF THE
PLANET?
I think it is always dangerous to be a prophet because you can
be wrong. But at least one must take certain assumptions.
Nature always regenerates and mankind is a resident race. And
if we apply the beautiful phrase of apostle Paul in the second
letter to Timothy: “For God has not given us a spirit of fear, but
of power and love and a sound mind.”, we can look trustworthily
into the future.
In a world that has returned to great power rivalry, understanding
the grand strategy of these powers is crucial. This book introduces
ten key terms for analysing grand strategy and shows how
the world’s great powers – the United States, China, Russia and
the European Union (EU) – shape their strategic decisions today.
Outlining the steps needed for a less confrontational grand strategy
and a more peaceful and stable world order, this lively and
accessible introduction shows how the choices made in each of
these ten areas will determine the course of world politics in the
first half of the 21st century.
Sven Biscop is Director of the Europe in the World Programme at
the Egmont–Royal Institute for International Relations in Brussels
and Professor at Ghent University. He is an Honorary Fellow
of the European Security and Defence College (ESDC), and an
Officer in the Order of the Crown of the Kingdom of Belgium.
THE PROGRESSIVE POST
This is a timely analysis that – crucially – also manages to feel
both very real for the time it is written and future-proof in terms
of the insights it includes and the lessons it uncovers… a great
contribution to the global debates around the current and future
dynamics of great power politics.
JOURNAL OF COMMON MARKET STUDIES
Elegant and sophisticated .
BEATRICE HEUSER, UNIVERSITY OF GLASGOW
A leading European expert giving wise counsel to strategy
makers on both sides of the Atlantic, for a community of values
that has choppy waters behind it, likely to face further rough seas
ahead. Strongly recommended empirically-derived navigation
aids for practitioners!
GENERAL SIR RUPERT SMITH KCB DSO OBE QGM
An excellent and readable book. His analysis is clear and his
suggestions for the future pertinent. He provides a comprehensive
framework for understanding strategies in general, let alone
the Grand Strategies of major powers.
GRAND STRATEGY
AND GREAT POWER POLITICS
PROFESSOR SVEN BISCOP
BARRY R. POSEN, MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE
OF TECHNOLOGY
A timely work accessible to practitioners, illuminating to scholars,
and instructive to students....elegantly combines theory, history,
and current-policy analysis to provide not only a primer on Grand
Strategy, but a guide to how to mobilize the concept to understand
and navigate an increasingly multi-polar world.
HAL BRANDS, JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY AND
AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE
This book is both a conceptual treatment of grand strategy and a
prescriptive argument about 21st century geopolitics. While I do
not agree with all of its conclusions, I believe all readers will find
it most stimulating.
BRENDAN SIMMS, UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE
At a time when it faces a double ‘no deal’ on Brexit and the
Coronavirus Recovery Plan, the European Union badly needs a
strategy. Sven Biscop, who has spent his entire career analysing
the Union’s strengths and weakness is well-placed to help her to
start thinking about one. My recommendation can be summarised
in fewer than ten words: ‘buy this book’.
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