Flight International - 04

Environment Mobility
Some aerospace analysts have serious doubts about
the viability of the envisioned air taxi operations.
“There’s been so much focus on the technologies
and the aircraft, but not enough focus put on the
operators of those aircraft… [and] how the hell they
are going to make money,” AeroDynamic Advisory
analyst Kevin Michaels said during an aerospace
industry event near Seattle in February.
Air taxi business models tend to assume operators
will recoup their costs by flying eVTOL assets for
thousands of hours annually, he says. But the aircraft
could have notable operating constraints, including
limitations imposed by charging and restrictions on
operating in poor visibility or icy conditions.
“You’re planning on flying 3,000 hours per year…
are you kidding me?”, Michaels says. “That’s what
twin-aisles fly.”
He sees the eVTOL sector as having a “venture capital”
mentality: “tell a big story, maybe one of the 10 will
work. That’s not the way our industry functions.”
Analysts also cite the challenges of developing wholly
new infrastructure and air traffic control systems.
“Just think about the… organisational nightmare of
trying to pull together all this infrastructure across jurisdictions,
across state lines,” BofA Securities financial
3,000
Number of hours per year air taxi business models assume
eVTOL assets will be flying for, if they are to recoup costs
analyst Ron Epstein said at the same event. “Not that
it’s insurmountable – but it’s pretty insurmountable.”
Others are far more optimistic. Eric Allison, head
of product at Joby, told FlightGlobal on 27 January
that he believes his company’s ambitious certification
timeline puts the 2028 Olympics within reach.
“The administrator deserves kudos for putting
forward a bold vision of leadership in the space,”
he says. “To have a meaningful commercial service
in place, I think, is well within the way we see this
evolving. It’s very feasible.”
Complicated airspace
Joby has already been working with the city of Los
Angeles through its partnership with Delta, Allison
says. He concedes that the area around Los Angeles
International airport is “one of the most complicated
airspaces around”, due to the airport’s proximity to the
urban core and “extremely high utilisation”.
“LAX and JFK are quite important markets, so we
certainly are giving a lot of attention to those areas,”
Allison says. “We’ve all been impressed in the way the
FAA has leaned in on what they need to do to push
things along on an aggressive timeline. I think that
there’s a lot of agency-level enthusiasm.”
Among the possible first companies to market,
Archer and Joby are doing “foundational work” on
certification and testing that will help launch the
entire industry, Allison says. There is risk that the FAA
will ask start-ups to undertake costly and time-intensive
redesigns of their aircraft before granting
approval to operate in the national airspace. Both
Archer and Joby say they have been in close communication
with the FAA through their respective
development processes, however.
Lessor Avolon has secured customers
for 500 of Vertical Aerospace’s VX-4
converted Cessna Caravan next year, with a target
of certification by 2025.
“Getting to market can cost hundreds of millions
of dollars – even billions,” notes Doral. “A couple
of years ago there was a greater appetite for
risk among investors. But now that appetite has
changed significantly.”
Vertical Aerospace
Global lessor Avolon has invested in UK start-up
Vertical Aerospace, and announced orders for 500
of its VX-4 electric air taxis, now all committed to
customers, mainly major airlines.
“We identified Vertical as the right partner to
start our exploration of the potential for electric
air travel,” say Marc Tembleque Vilalta, head of
Avolon-e. “The best way for us to help the business
scale up from a concept to a full production OEM
was to get involved as a shareholder.
“Near term, we see funding availability as the
limiting factor for most new technology OEMs. Cash
conservation may see the timelines of some concepts
pushed out while access to capital remains limited.”
Universal appeal
John Thomas is chief executive of Connect Airlines,
a US short-haul start-up preparing to launch.
Connect has ordered up to 100 conversion kits from
Universal Hydrogen, in which it has also invested, to
adapt ATR 72 twin-turboprops to using zero carbon
emission powertrains.
The formula for success was clear, he says:
“Technology, lower execution risk, and commercial
viability.” But will 2023 be a year of shakeout for
concept aircraft and powertrains?
“I think we have a few more years,” Thomas says.
“The size of the prize is so large that people will
continue to fund, even if some are late to market.”
April 2023 Flight International 69