Flight International - 04

The UK could supply Kyiv with Tranche 1 Typhoons,
but the aircraft may not suit conditions in Ukraine
The true scale of Ukraine’s air force losses are unclear,
with Kyiv closely guarding such sensitive information.
But in a late-February report entitled Ukrainian
innovation in a war of attrition, the US Center for Strategic
and International Studies (CSIS) cites a figure of
57 combat jets having been lost since mid-2022.
The CSIS attributes this figure to research
conducted by the Oryx group, which claims to have
documented the loss of 18 of Kyiv’s MiG-29s, 16
Su-25s, 15 Su-24s and eight Su-27s.
Losing such a high percentage of its aerial combat
mass would represent a significant blow to Ukraine’s
hopes of capably defending its skies now, and also
after the conflict concludes.
“With fewer aircraft available, each plane endures
more sorties and wears down faster,” the CSIS
report’s authors note. “Without replenishment from
the West, Ukraine could lose the ability to defend its
airspace and target Russian ground forces.”
Surplus assets
Noting that the US Air Force has current plans to
divest more than a combined 200 of its Boeing
F-15, Fairchild Republic A-10 and F-16 strike aircraft,
the report suggests: “Ukraine could use some of
these aircraft – along with trainers and spare parts
– particularly for close air support missions to aid
Ukrainian ground forces.”
Our analysis of Cirium data shows that the US
military has a 62% share of the combined 5,652
fighters operated by NATO members today, with
Washington’s forces accounting for a total of 3,503
jets (see table, p75).
With the nation’s main operating bases having been
targeted, Ukraine’s remaining combat aircraft must
operate from dispersed locations. Once airborne,
they face the dual threat posed by air-defence
systems and Russian air force strike aircraft armed
with long-range air-to-air missiles. But also lacking
air superiority above its neighbour’s territory, Kyiv’s
adversary is largely restricted to deploying cruise
missiles against targets from within Russia.
“What’s interesting through the lens of Ukraine
– those outside looking in would say – is that combat
air hasn’t turned up,” observes Air Marshal Harv
Smyth, the RAF’s deputy commander (operations).
“What has been interesting to watch is the Ukrainians:
their appetite to take attrition, to put themselves
in harm’s way, to deliver effect that they can only
deliver with air, and their innovative way to be able to
achieve temporal control of the air so that they can
get in to deliver that effect and get back out,” he says.
“What’s interesting
through the lens of Ukraine
– those outside looking in
would say – is that combat
air hasn’t turned up”
Air Marshal Harv Smyth Deputy commander (operations),
Royal Air Force
“Are you going to allow it all to be attrited in the
first six months and have nothing left, if all you’ve got
is a small air force? Actually, you want to keep those
because they are quite precious assets to allow you
to go after the killer blows when you can achieve
them,” he said during a Royal Aeronautical Society
lecture in London on 1 February.
“It doesn’t have to cost millions or billions,” Smyth
notes. “Some of this can be done quite innovatively
for not that much money, and really have quite an
effect on your adversary.”
Referring to the Russian air force’s performance in
the war, he says: “We know a lot of their equipment –
particularly the newer stuff – is very good. The Su-35
is a very good aeroplane. [But] it’s about the person in
the cockpit, and how well they have been trained.
74 Flight International April 2023