ZEF Bonn

1.4 Global trends in lost lives
Here, the patterns of man-made disasters such as wars and natural disasters converge
to a surprising degree. Both for natural and man-made disasters the number
of disasters shows an increasing trend while the number of fatalities has been decreasing
(Figures 3 and 4). Both the probability of death from natural disasters and
from war has declined, which may be contrary to perceptions in the general public.
Two different explanations have to be sought here. Presumably, the decrease in the
number of drought victims contributed to the trend with regard to natural disasters.
And in the late 20th century, famines have caused fewer fatalities and have shifted
their occurrence, with a few exceptions, from the North (e.g. Russia) and Asia to
Sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, mortality has been reduced significantly. Previous
famines in Russia, China and India resulted in more fatalities than the more recent
ones in Africa, even though these left up to one million people dead in Ethiopia.
Also, the causes of famines connected with droughts lie partly in government failures
and political conflicts (von Braun, Webb, Teklu, 1999).
With regard to war victims, the major reason for the relative decline in the number
of war victims as a general trend can be attributed to learning effects, deterrence
during the Cold War and democratisation. After two disastrous World Wars, the
international community set up new diplomatic instruments to prevent violent conflicts
from escalating into full-scale wars and especially to avoid the drawing in of
ever more actors and countries. More importantly, however, the Cold War put the
risk of escalation with disastrous consequences so high that full-scale wars between
more than two countries became very rare. Lastly and perhaps most importantly, the
prospects of democratic governments declaring war on another country are very
slim. The three waves of democratisation that the 20th century saw also gradually
reduced the odds of full-scale wars developing between whole groups of countries.
Essay
Both for natural and manmade
disasters, their actual
number shows an increasing
trend, while the number of
fatalities has been decreasing.
However, with regard to wars,
there is a general lack of data
on casualties among civilians.
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