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No. 04 | 2008<br />
Feature<br />
Recycling in <strong>the</strong> alps<br />
Austria shows how packaging recovery works<br />
News Analysis<br />
M����� H���<br />
New Chairman<br />
of CEPI<br />
S������ R���<br />
Hedging against<br />
commodity price risks<br />
Opinion<br />
G����� D���<br />
WEEE from a global<br />
point of view
Contents<br />
Editorial 3<br />
News 4<br />
Feature | Different ways 8<br />
Analysis | Risks in primary materials 16<br />
Opinion | Graham Davy 20<br />
Market | Survey of <strong>for</strong>ecasts 22<br />
Data | International markets 24<br />
M�������<br />
Publisher:<br />
Reed Business In<strong>for</strong>mation GmbH<br />
Gabrielenstraße 9, D-80636 Munich, Germany<br />
Editor in Chief:<br />
Stephan Peter Krafzik<br />
Ph.: +49 (89) 89817-371; email: spk@rbi.de<br />
Editorial Office:<br />
Walter Henkes (whe)<br />
Ph.: +49 (89) 89817-372; email: whe@rbi.de<br />
Kerstin Bendix (kbe)<br />
Ph.: +49 (89) 89817-374; email: kbe@rbi.de<br />
Andreas Schleinkofer (asc)<br />
Ph.: +49 (89) 89817-373; email: asc@rbi.de<br />
2<br />
Editorial Assistant:<br />
Sabine Hatzfeld (sha, deputising)<br />
Management:<br />
Hans-Jürgen Kuntze, Ph.: +49 (89) 89817-303;<br />
email: hjk@rbi.de<br />
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GmbH is Reed Elsevier Deutschland GmbH, Munich, a fullyowned<br />
subsidiary of Reed Elsevier Overseas B.V., Amsterdam<br />
This publication is issued under <strong>the</strong> German Press Law.
Editorial<br />
Cheaper –<br />
even without<br />
competition?<br />
Germany as a pioneer in packaging recycling<br />
Whenever discussion turns to recycling packaging waste,<br />
<strong>the</strong> word Germany often comes up. T<strong>here</strong> was <strong>the</strong> birth-<br />
place of <strong>the</strong> ‘Grüne Punkt’ (Green Dot) in 1990, which<br />
has been adopted by many o<strong>the</strong>r countries in <strong>the</strong> meantime<br />
and is considered <strong>the</strong> hallmark <strong>for</strong> recycling of household<br />
packaging waste. In Germany, packaging recovery is<br />
mainly organised by Duale System Deutschland AG – but<br />
<strong>for</strong> how long is <strong>the</strong> question, as t<strong>here</strong> is now a number of<br />
competitors who are trying to capture shares in <strong>the</strong> market<br />
from DSD.<br />
Comparing German and Austrian systems<br />
The fact that Germany is now experiencing stronger<br />
competition within <strong>the</strong> dual systems is <strong>the</strong> result of appeals<br />
by <strong>the</strong> Federal Cartel Office to create competition- friendly<br />
structures. However, interestingly enough, this increased<br />
competition does not seem to be making a big impression<br />
on disposal costs, at least not in comparison with <strong>the</strong><br />
neighbouring country of Austria.<br />
The CEO of <strong>the</strong> Austrian company ARA AG, Christian<br />
Stiglitz, offers a startling explanation of <strong>the</strong> situation: in a<br />
comparison of both countries, <strong>the</strong> Austrian system comes<br />
off as <strong>the</strong> much more cost-efficient – even though, unlike<br />
Germany, it is not competition-oriented or profit-seeking.<br />
While disposal of a yoghurt carton costs 90 cents in<br />
Germany, in Austria it costs less than half (Euro 0.42). “It<br />
seems that although prices have been reduced over <strong>the</strong><br />
past few years, German systems should still be able to offer<br />
even lower prices to <strong>the</strong>ir customers,” says Stiglitz in his article<br />
<strong>for</strong> Recycling m@gazine. And a fur<strong>the</strong>r point: in Germany,<br />
<strong>the</strong> licence fee <strong>for</strong> disposal is only paid <strong>for</strong> two out of three<br />
pieces of packaging; in Austria, it is at 90 per cent.<br />
Hedging against price risks<br />
A very different topic is <strong>the</strong> issue of how to effectively hedge<br />
against price risks. This particularly affects traders in <strong>the</strong><br />
metals market and material recyclers. Between purchasing<br />
<strong>the</strong> materials and selling <strong>the</strong> recycled products t<strong>here</strong> is often<br />
a period of several months – long enough <strong>for</strong> metal prices<br />
to plummet on <strong>the</strong> stock market. For Recycling m@gazine,<br />
Steffen Rapp of Deutsche Bank analyses hedging options<br />
which offer greater protection against such price risks.<br />
Yours sincerely<br />
Stephan Peter Krafzik<br />
Editor in Chief<br />
spk@rbi.de<br />
3
News<br />
v A new system <strong>for</strong> detection of<br />
banned polybrominated substances<br />
ANNECY | Alcatel Vacuum Technology is introducing a new<br />
technology to confirm <strong>the</strong> absence of polybrominated diphenyl<br />
e<strong>the</strong>rs (PBDE) and polybrominated biphenyls (PBB) in<br />
electrical or electronic products using Ion Attachment Mass<br />
spectrometry (IA-Mass). IA-Mass allows <strong>the</strong> analysis of<br />
samples at a rate that is consistent with a manufacturing<br />
environment. No special lab or highly trained technician is<br />
required <strong>for</strong> IA-Mass. The IA-Mass instrument can be operated<br />
by a regular technician and can take place alongside a<br />
manufacturing line.<br />
The RoHS (Restriction of Hazardous Substances) directive<br />
and its application releases in all European States stipulates<br />
that manufacturers must guarantee that <strong>the</strong>se (PBDE,<br />
PBB) restricted substances are not present in <strong>the</strong>ir products.<br />
The number of samples requiring analysis will reach tens of<br />
thousands each year. Based on AVT, <strong>the</strong> novel IA-Mass method<br />
to check PBB and PBDE in plastics is extremely easy to<br />
use and can obtain co<strong>here</strong>nt results in line with those provided<br />
with GC/MS in a greatly reduced time. z<br />
v Oahu’s Recycling Numbers Down<br />
HONOLULU | Residents of Oahu are recycling and reusing<br />
less waste, fur<strong>the</strong>r burdening <strong>the</strong> Waimanalo Gulch landfill.<br />
State officials say <strong>the</strong> island kept 35 per cent of its waste<br />
out of <strong>the</strong> landfill in fiscal year 2004 and 41 per cent in<br />
2005. But that number dropped to about 31 per cent last<br />
year when <strong>the</strong> island produced nearly 1.8 million tonnes of<br />
solid waste and reused or recycled little more than 500,000<br />
tonnes.<br />
Officials say <strong>the</strong>y are not sure why less waste is being diverted<br />
from <strong>the</strong> landfill, although <strong>the</strong>y add that large construction<br />
or public works projects can push recycling numbers<br />
down because much of <strong>the</strong>ir waste cannot be recycled<br />
or reused. Environmentalists say Oahu residents need to<br />
change <strong>the</strong>ir attitudes about recycling. z<br />
4<br />
v Call <strong>for</strong> urgent action on Ireland’s<br />
waste is too late<br />
DUBLIN | The Irish waste sector has warned that a call from<br />
<strong>the</strong> Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) <strong>for</strong> ‘urgent action’<br />
<strong>for</strong> Ireland to meet its EU 2010 landfill targets could be too<br />
late. A published discussion paper entitled Hitting <strong>the</strong> targets<br />
<strong>for</strong> biodegradable municipal waste: Ten targets <strong>for</strong> change<br />
said that <strong>the</strong> outcome currently being achieved with biodegradable<br />
municipal waste (BMW) is ‘less than satisfactory’.<br />
The EPA’s National Waste Report revealed that 1.4 million<br />
tonnes of BMW were landfilled in 2006. “As recycling rates in<br />
Ireland are now reaching <strong>the</strong> best in Europe — averaging from<br />
40 to 50 per cent — and substantial residual waste remains<br />
to be managed, t<strong>here</strong> is now an inescapable requirement <strong>for</strong><br />
waste to energy to reduce landfill rates to 20 per cent or less<br />
in accordance with nor<strong>the</strong>rn European norms.” Commenting<br />
on <strong>the</strong> EPA report, Green Party environment minister, John<br />
Gormley, said: “This report makes a very welcome contribution<br />
to finding solutions to obstacles in our path.” EPA said<br />
that 92 per cent of BMW was landfilled in 2006 and suggested<br />
ten areas to encourage landfill di<strong>version</strong>. z<br />
v Nucor acquiring DJJ<br />
CINCINNATI | Nucor Corp. has signed a purchase agreement<br />
to acquire <strong>the</strong> stock of SHV North America Corporation,<br />
which owns 100 per cent of <strong>the</strong> David J. Joseph Company<br />
(DJJ), its related affiliates and real estate, <strong>for</strong> around<br />
US-Dollar 1.44 billion. DJJ will be a wholly owned subsidiary<br />
of Nucor Corporation and will maintain its headquarters in<br />
Cincinnati.<br />
DJJ is one of <strong>the</strong> leading U.S. scrap companies. The acquisition<br />
of DJJ will bring a variety of benefits to Nucor. In addition<br />
to DJJ’s scrap operations and expertise, its extensive<br />
brokerage operations provide Nucor with global sourcing of<br />
many key steel-making raw materials. DJJ’s rail services and<br />
logistics capabilities will allow Nucor to leverage <strong>the</strong> largest<br />
private railcar fleet in North America dedicated to scrap<br />
transportation. The addition of DJJ to Nucor’s current scrap<br />
processing capabilities will allow <strong>the</strong> company to process<br />
about four million tonnes of ferrous scrap annually. z
Editorial<br />
v Stena enters <strong>the</strong> Romanian waste<br />
management market<br />
BUCHAREST | The Swedish recycling company Stena has<br />
acquired a majority stake in <strong>the</strong> Romanian company DTM<br />
Waste Recycling SRL. The new name of <strong>the</strong> company after<br />
<strong>the</strong> acquisition is Stena DTM SRL. The main focus of <strong>the</strong><br />
company’s operations will be <strong>the</strong> processing of hazardous<br />
waste and recycling of waste from electrical and electronic<br />
equipment in accordance with <strong>the</strong> European Union’s WEEE<br />
directive.<br />
Stena DTM SRL holds a dominant position in <strong>the</strong> field of<br />
electronics recycling and processing of hazardous waste.<br />
DTM Waste Recycling SRL was set up as late as 2006 and<br />
has rapidly gained <strong>the</strong> respect of its customers by providing<br />
a high and professional quality level of services in waste<br />
management, a fast developing field in <strong>the</strong> Romanian economic<br />
sector.<br />
The new company Stena DTM SRL will have three operating<br />
locations in Romania – Jilava, Ilfov County; Darmanesti,<br />
Bacau County; and Apahida, Cluj County. Its headquarters<br />
will be in Jilava.<br />
The Stena Metall Group is <strong>the</strong> Nordic leader in recycling and<br />
environmental services with operations in 250 locations and<br />
12 countries. For more in<strong>for</strong>mation on Stena Metall Group,<br />
<strong>please</strong> visit www.stenametall.com/English z<br />
v South Africa companies<br />
called to recycle waste<br />
JOHANNESBURG | Collect-a-Can has called <strong>for</strong> companies<br />
to recycle <strong>the</strong>ir waste as a contribution to <strong>the</strong> 2008 Green<br />
Year initiative. The purpose of <strong>the</strong> corporate challenge initiative<br />
is to challenge organisations to embark on a <strong>for</strong>mal<br />
recycling campaign within <strong>the</strong>ir premises. It will involve educating<br />
employees about separating waste at work and home.<br />
“The corporate world can contribute a lot to <strong>the</strong> management<br />
of waste; just think of all those people employed within<br />
large public and private organisations and <strong>the</strong> amount of<br />
waste that is generated daily. The impact on our environment<br />
and landfills will be phenomenal if each of <strong>the</strong>se individuals<br />
recycles <strong>the</strong>ir waste from home and <strong>the</strong> office,” Collect-a-<br />
Can Managing Director Funani Mojono said.<br />
He said waste discharged in <strong>the</strong> environment has negative<br />
impacts, while an integrated waste and environmental management<br />
system curbs <strong>the</strong> quantity of waste discharged<br />
through recycling. Cans are <strong>the</strong> most recycled <strong>for</strong>m of packaging<br />
in Africa, making a major contribution to preserving<br />
<strong>the</strong> natural environment and tourist attractions.<br />
According to figures from <strong>the</strong> Department of Water Affairs<br />
and Forestry, more than 42 million cubic metres of waste is<br />
generated in South Africa every year. The largest proportion,<br />
42 per cent, is generated in Gauteng. z<br />
5
News<br />
v Converted Organics acquires United<br />
Organic Products and Waste Recovery<br />
BOSTON | Converted Organics Inc. (NASDAQ: COIN) has<br />
acquired <strong>the</strong> assets of United Organic Products, LLC of<br />
Gonzales, CA, as well as <strong>the</strong> assets, including <strong>the</strong> intellectual<br />
property, of Waste Recovery Industries, LLC of Paso Robles,<br />
CA. These acquisitions make Converted Organics <strong>the</strong><br />
owner of <strong>the</strong> proprietary technology and process known<br />
as <strong>the</strong> High Temperature Liquid Composting (HTLC) system,<br />
which processes various biodegradable waste products into<br />
liquid and solid organic-based fertiliser and feed products.<br />
Converted Organics has also acquired a leading liquid fertiliser<br />
product line, as well as a state-of-<strong>the</strong>-art production<br />
facility that services a strong West Coast agribusiness customer<br />
base through established distribution channels.<br />
In addition to acquiring assets and technology, Converted<br />
Organics also announced that <strong>the</strong> employees of United<br />
Organic Products, LLC will join Converted Organics. COIN has<br />
also announced an agreement with Rhode Island Resource<br />
Recovery Corporation to build an organic fertiliser facility. z<br />
v ERP celebrates five years<br />
and looks <strong>for</strong>ward<br />
BRUSSELS | The European Recycling Plat<strong>for</strong>m announced<br />
that it has celebrated its five year anniversary — a milestone<br />
in its evolution from an alternative to national compliance<br />
schemes to a leading pan-European provider of WEEE<br />
solutions. ERP can look back with satisfaction on <strong>the</strong> last<br />
five years and is anxious to continue its strong growth trend<br />
in <strong>the</strong> coming years. With over 1,200 members and over<br />
250,000 tonnes of WEEE collected and treated, it is clear<br />
ERP has launched a winning business model. Each of <strong>the</strong><br />
countries w<strong>here</strong> <strong>the</strong>y are directly operational boast impressive<br />
numbers <strong>for</strong> tonnage collected. In Germany, <strong>for</strong> example,<br />
ERP consistently collects over 4,000 tonnes of WEEE each<br />
month. Even operations that are relatively new on <strong>the</strong> market,<br />
such as ERP UK, collect upwards of 3,000 tonnes per<br />
month. ERP’s market share ranges from 10 to 25 per cent in<br />
each country. This growth has been overseen by <strong>the</strong>ir senior<br />
management team, including Umberto Raiteri (CEO), Christophe<br />
Pautrat (COO) and Nicola Magaraggia (CFO). z<br />
6<br />
v New CEPI Chairman:<br />
Magnus Hall, Holmen CEO<br />
BRUSSELS | The Confederation of<br />
European Paper Industries (CEPI) is<br />
<strong>please</strong>d to announce <strong>the</strong> appointment<br />
of Magnus Hall as <strong>the</strong> new CEPI Chairman.<br />
Hall started his chairmanship in <strong>the</strong><br />
beginning of January and will hold <strong>the</strong> post until <strong>the</strong> end of<br />
2009. Frits Beurskens, <strong>for</strong>mer CEPI Chairman, will keep <strong>the</strong><br />
Vice Chairman post <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> next two years to guarantee a<br />
smooth transition.<br />
Hall has been <strong>the</strong> President and CEO of Holmen since April<br />
2004. He holds an MSc degree in Industrial Management and<br />
Engineering from Linköping Institute of Technology in Sweden<br />
and was a Fulbright Scholar at Georgetown University in <strong>the</strong><br />
U.S. in 1985. He has been with Holmen since <strong>the</strong>n and has<br />
previously worked as VP Marketing and Sales and President of<br />
<strong>the</strong> Publication Paper division. He is also Chairman of <strong>the</strong> Forest-Based<br />
Sector Technology Plat<strong>for</strong>m (FTP) and Vice Chairman<br />
of <strong>the</strong> Swedish Forest Industries Federation. z<br />
v Divestment of Metso’s panelboard<br />
business to Dieffenbacher finalised<br />
NASTOLA | Metso has finalised <strong>the</strong> divestment of certain<br />
Metso Panelboard operations to Dieffenbacher GmbH + Co.<br />
KG, Germany. The panelboard business in Nastola, Finland,<br />
and part of <strong>the</strong> MDF business in Sundsvall, Sweden, was<br />
transferred to <strong>the</strong> ownership of Dieffenbacher on 1 February.<br />
The transaction, whose value was not disclosed, does not<br />
have a significant impact on Metso’s net income.<br />
The panelboard operations in Finland with all its 60<br />
employees and in Sweden with its 40 employees have<br />
been transferred to Dieffenbacher GmbH. The refiner-related<br />
operations in Sundsvall, Sweden, will remain in Metso’s<br />
ownership and are not included in <strong>the</strong> transaction. After <strong>the</strong><br />
divestment, <strong>the</strong> panelboard business will not be reported as<br />
a separate business line, but <strong>the</strong> unit will continue to supply<br />
fibre preparation technology to <strong>the</strong> global MDF industry as<br />
part of Metso Paper. Metso is a global engineering and technology<br />
corporation with 2006 net sales of approximately €5<br />
billion. z
Editorial<br />
v BOV environment conference<br />
to focus on waste management<br />
MALTA | Bank of Valletta, in conjunction with <strong>the</strong> Malta<br />
Business Bureau incorporating Malta Federation of Industry,<br />
Malta Chamber of Commerce and Enterprise and Malta<br />
Hotels and Restaurants Association, is organising a conference<br />
entitled “Tackling waste toge<strong>the</strong>r – turning obligations<br />
into an opportunity”. The conference will be held on Wednesday<br />
at <strong>the</strong> San Gorg Corinthia Hotel in St Julian’s. Bringing<br />
toge<strong>the</strong>r a panel of both international and local speakers,<br />
<strong>the</strong> conference will address <strong>the</strong> issue of waste management<br />
and legislation regarding commercial waste. The conference<br />
will also discuss <strong>the</strong> opportunities available <strong>for</strong> reducing <strong>the</strong><br />
financial burden <strong>for</strong> industry, as well as EU funding opportunities.<br />
As such, it is of particular interest to manufacturers<br />
and o<strong>the</strong>r organisations involved in commercial activities.<br />
Participants wishing to attend can apply through BOV’s<br />
Customer Service Centre by e-mail to csc@bov.com, or from<br />
any BOV branch. The price is €35/Lm15. The rate <strong>for</strong> MBB<br />
members and students is €25/Lm10.73 (VAT incl.). z<br />
v International stainless steel course<br />
now available in Korean<br />
BRUSSELS | The course, offered globally by <strong>the</strong> Internation-<br />
al Stainless Steel Forum (ISSF), is a 16-module programme<br />
covering all aspects of stainless steel. Its focus is to improve<br />
<strong>the</strong> knowledge of all individuals and companies who work<br />
with stainless steel. “Increasing knowledge across all levels<br />
of staff ultimately improves productivity <strong>for</strong> companies and<br />
minimises errors,” ISSF Secretary General Staffan Malm said.<br />
Following agreement with <strong>the</strong> Korean Iron and Steel Association<br />
(KOSA), six of <strong>the</strong> modules available via e-learning were<br />
translated into Korean, enabling students to complete an<br />
intermediate certificate in <strong>the</strong>ir local language. The e-learning<br />
approach offers interactive flash presentations with images,<br />
animations and video, almost halving <strong>the</strong> time of study<br />
compared with <strong>the</strong> more traditional methods of study. “The<br />
e-learning delivery method makes <strong>the</strong> learning rich, fast and<br />
exciting,” says Malm. Sung Joon Pak from KOSA expressed<br />
his delight at <strong>the</strong> arrangement and <strong>the</strong> ability <strong>for</strong> students to<br />
enhance <strong>the</strong>ir knowledge of <strong>the</strong> material. z<br />
v Caterpillar ® equipment systems to<br />
be standard in Europe and Turkey<br />
EUROPE | Caterpillar will equip most of its Core, Mining &<br />
Paving machines with EquipmentManager and Product Link<br />
— <strong>the</strong> remote asset management solution by Caterpillar. The<br />
remote tracking and management system will be a standard<br />
feature in <strong>the</strong> European and Turkish markets. Caterpillar<br />
will deliver <strong>the</strong>se capabilities as an integral part of most<br />
core Caterpillar machines. Product Link will be available as<br />
an option <strong>for</strong> Caterpillar machines. Caterpillar will phase in<br />
EquipmentManager / Product Link throughout <strong>the</strong> first quarter<br />
2008, after which Product Link will come as standard<br />
equipment, along with a three-year subscription to Asset<br />
Watch, <strong>the</strong> remote asset management portion of EquipmentManager.<br />
This is a system that provides <strong>the</strong> full depth<br />
of asset management, maintenance and health in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
required by equipment managers to effectively manage <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
fleets. EquipmentManager is a secure, web-based application<br />
that uses key indicators from equipment such as hours,<br />
location and diagnostic codes. Combined with powerful<br />
tools such as mapping, maintenance scheduling and troubleshooting<br />
instructions, EquipmentManager quickly sorts<br />
through machine data to identify events that require attention<br />
and delivers in<strong>for</strong>mation in a meaningful and actionable<br />
manner. Using satellite technology, Product Link is <strong>the</strong> hardware<br />
that enables in<strong>for</strong>mation flow between on-board systems<br />
and <strong>the</strong> web-based application. The remote management<br />
system provides machine location and hours as well<br />
as time and geo-fencing capabilities. z<br />
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7
Feature | Separation System<br />
Different ways<br />
Outstanding per<strong>for</strong>mance by Austrian’s packaging recovery system<br />
Since <strong>the</strong>ir foundation, <strong>the</strong> recovery systems in Austria<br />
and Germany developed in parallel and were role models<br />
<strong>for</strong> most recovery systems in o<strong>the</strong>r European countries.<br />
However, a few years ago <strong>the</strong>y began showing diverging<br />
development. While <strong>the</strong> Austrian system <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> most part<br />
is acting <strong>the</strong> same by still following <strong>the</strong> principles of non-<br />
profit, <strong>the</strong> German system has chosen ano<strong>the</strong>r path to fol-<br />
low. Instead of <strong>the</strong> non-profit orientation with sustainable<br />
low prices, a profit-oriented competition of international<br />
waste groups fight <strong>for</strong> customers.<br />
Fur<strong>the</strong>rmore, <strong>the</strong> German government installed a deposit<br />
system <strong>for</strong> disposable beverage packaging in 2003 which<br />
failed completely to reach <strong>the</strong> goal of promoting reusable<br />
packaging. These two major developments led to different<br />
results <strong>for</strong> customers, consumers and <strong>the</strong> environment.<br />
The Austrian Solution<br />
“Since <strong>the</strong> beginning of <strong>the</strong> ARA System close cooperation<br />
with all stakeholders was one of <strong>the</strong> major facts <strong>for</strong> our success,”<br />
says Christian Stiglitz, CEO of <strong>the</strong> Austrian ARA AG.<br />
8<br />
Christian Stiglitz<br />
“For us it was clear that sustainable change of behav-<br />
iour was only possible when all <strong>the</strong> involved groups w<strong>here</strong><br />
willing to contribute <strong>the</strong>ir share. We invested a lot of ef<strong>for</strong>t in<br />
educating trade, industry an municipalities affected by <strong>the</strong><br />
Austrian Packaging Ordinance. we also spent a lot of time<br />
searching <strong>for</strong> strong partners in waste management. Last but<br />
not least <strong>the</strong> consumers needed to recognise <strong>the</strong> purpose<br />
and advantages of separating packaging and to be trained<br />
on how to collect it properly.”<br />
This experience was reached by looking at <strong>the</strong> already<br />
existing collection systems in Germany and France. But this<br />
wasn’t <strong>the</strong> only lesson learned. The Austrian legislators also<br />
not only analysed already existing packaging laws but also<br />
improved some of <strong>the</strong> regulations. For example, <strong>the</strong> Austri-<br />
an packaging ordinance includes regulations <strong>for</strong> household<br />
packaging and commercial and industrial packaging.<br />
Distinctively favourable tariffs in Austria<br />
As a privately run stock company, ARA was founded in 1993<br />
and is owned by Altstoff Recycling Austria Verein – an asso-<br />
ciation that also functions as <strong>the</strong> sole shareholder. Every<br />
company that manufactures, imports or distributes packaged<br />
products can become a member of this association<br />
and participate in <strong>the</strong> decision-making process as ARA coowner.<br />
Only companies belonging to <strong>the</strong> waste management<br />
industry are excluded from membership to avoid conflict of<br />
interest. At <strong>the</strong> moment, some 200 leading companies are<br />
members of <strong>the</strong> association. The mission given to ARA by <strong>the</strong><br />
owners association has remained unchanged since 1993: to<br />
fulfil <strong>the</strong> collection and recycling quotas at <strong>the</strong> lowest possible<br />
sustainable cost to all customers.<br />
This mission was <strong>the</strong> driving <strong>for</strong>ce during <strong>the</strong> first 15 years<br />
and still is and t<strong>here</strong><strong>for</strong>e it is imperative that all possible<br />
optimisations are implemented in collection and recy-
Editorial<br />
Tariff comparison<br />
license <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> disposal of...<br />
Foto: Franz Pfluegl - FOTOLIA<br />
yogurt container<br />
0,90 0.90 0.42 1.23 1.16 0.16 0.13<br />
DSD (Germany) ARA (Austria)<br />
values in € cents, source: DSD, ARA, price basis 2007<br />
plastic bag crayon box<br />
cling. More than 10 years ago, <strong>the</strong> ARA system was <strong>the</strong><br />
first collection and recycling system in Europe who put out<br />
<strong>the</strong>se services to tender – quite some time be<strong>for</strong>e <strong>the</strong> DG<br />
competition made that mandatory. Since <strong>the</strong>n this process<br />
has been repeated continuously and improvements<br />
implemented permanently.<br />
This persistent procedure has resulted in decreasing tariffs<br />
since 1995 – up to 50 per cent. In fact ARA tariffs have<br />
been below <strong>the</strong> German prices <strong>for</strong> quite a long time.<br />
It is amazing <strong>the</strong>n that in spite of competition between 10<br />
dual systems, German tariffs are still considerably above <strong>the</strong><br />
Austrian prices. For instance <strong>the</strong> licence fee <strong>for</strong> a yoghurt<br />
pot costs at <strong>the</strong> German DSD EUR 0.90 per year; at ARA<br />
EUR 0.42. The costs <strong>for</strong> a plastic bag amounted to EUR 1.23<br />
(DSD) and EUR 1.16 (ARA). “It seems that although prices<br />
were reduced in <strong>the</strong> past years, German systems could offer<br />
even lower prices <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir customers. But since profit is <strong>the</strong><br />
centre stage <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir business, possible reductions are not<br />
passed on in <strong>the</strong>ir entirety. With that kind of business policy,<br />
<strong>the</strong> customers – more precisely German consumers – lose<br />
several hundred millions,” Stiglitz believes.<br />
In contrast to <strong>the</strong> above described situation, ARA system is<br />
acting as a non-profit company. It doesn’t bag surpluses as<br />
profits, but gives it back to <strong>the</strong> supply chain. “We are in debt<br />
to our customers, <strong>the</strong> consumers and <strong>the</strong> environment. Their<br />
interests come first. Compared to that, <strong>the</strong> long standing<br />
In Germany, <strong>the</strong> licencing fees<br />
<strong>for</strong> packaging is consistently<br />
more expensive than Austria.<br />
structure in Germany was broken up bit by bit, <strong>for</strong>ced by a<br />
decision from <strong>the</strong> German Federal Cartel Office. The question<br />
now is: who benefits from this development?” Stiglitz<br />
describes <strong>the</strong> difference between <strong>the</strong> situation in Germany<br />
and Austria.<br />
Impurity quotas in Austria are decreasing<br />
As result of <strong>the</strong> close cooperation with <strong>the</strong> Austrian<br />
municipalities since 1993, <strong>the</strong> ARA system has succeeded<br />
in motivating <strong>the</strong> Austrian citizens to collect packaging<br />
separately and ensures <strong>the</strong> necessary collection quality.<br />
With this cooperation ARA capitalises on <strong>the</strong> confidence that<br />
citizens place in municipal waste management. Because<br />
waste has always been within <strong>the</strong> responsibility threshold of<br />
<strong>the</strong> municipalities, consumers consider <strong>the</strong>m <strong>the</strong> most trusted<br />
and reliable source <strong>for</strong> in<strong>for</strong>mation on this matter. The<br />
communication workload is carried by so called waste-consultants<br />
who are employees of municipalities or communal<br />
waste management associations. With agreed financial<br />
contribution towards <strong>the</strong> personnel costs of <strong>the</strong>se waste-consultants<br />
ARA is able to make use of this valuable and highly<br />
trusted communication channel. As part of a comprehensive<br />
communication strategy, waste consultants in<strong>for</strong>m citizens<br />
in <strong>the</strong>ir specific region while ARA in<strong>for</strong>ms and motivates <strong>the</strong><br />
consumers by running a nationwide campaign. On <strong>the</strong> one<br />
side, this communication strategy ensures that consum-<br />
9
Feature | Separation System<br />
ers get <strong>the</strong> same message from both <strong>the</strong> municipality and<br />
ARA. On <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r side, <strong>the</strong> communication is flexible and<br />
regionally adaptable. Because waste consultants work in<br />
small regions <strong>the</strong>y have a detailed knowledge of <strong>the</strong> local<br />
situation. That is why <strong>the</strong>y are able to react fast and accurately.<br />
The advantage of this regional communication becomes<br />
visible especially <strong>for</strong> local changes in <strong>the</strong> collection systems:<br />
without almost any time and in<strong>for</strong>mation loss adjustments<br />
can be communicated correctly to <strong>the</strong> affected inhabitants.<br />
This was proved recently when <strong>the</strong> collection of lightweight<br />
packaging was changed to plastic bottle collection in several<br />
regions in Austria.<br />
This change was made possible because of landfill ordinance<br />
regulations and was realised in coordination with<br />
<strong>the</strong> local communities. It showed outstanding results shortly<br />
after introduction. Not just <strong>the</strong> quantity of <strong>the</strong> collected<br />
plastic bottles could be raised but also <strong>the</strong> quality of <strong>the</strong><br />
collected material has improved incredibly. More than three<br />
million Austrians are using this new collection system and<br />
<strong>the</strong> amount of impurities within <strong>the</strong> yellow bin <strong>for</strong> lightweight<br />
packaging has decreased. The comparative value averages<br />
to 19 per cent throughout Austria. Even <strong>the</strong> collection in <strong>the</strong><br />
federal capital Vienna reached a quota which never seemed<br />
to be achievable in a city of over a million inhabitants – less<br />
than 15 per cent impurities.<br />
In total, <strong>the</strong> Austrians collect about 740,000 tonnes of<br />
packaging per year. The ARA system provides more than 1.2<br />
million collection bins and additionally 1.4 million households<br />
are serviced by door-to-door-collection <strong>for</strong> lightweight<br />
packaging.<br />
In comparison – <strong>the</strong> competitive situation in Germany leads<br />
in <strong>the</strong> opposite direction. Communication measures towards<br />
<strong>the</strong> consumers have ceased almost completely because<br />
none of <strong>the</strong> collection services is willing to spend money<br />
on something that o<strong>the</strong>r competitors benefit from. As a<br />
10<br />
result <strong>the</strong> quota of impurities within <strong>the</strong> collection is rising<br />
dramatically and bins are removed to reduce costs. But<br />
thinning out <strong>the</strong> collection system causes dissatisfied consumers<br />
who are no longer willing to collect packaging properly.<br />
At <strong>the</strong> moment experts estimate <strong>the</strong> impurity quota of<br />
lightweight-packaging amounts between 40 and 65 per<br />
cent.<br />
90 per cent support <strong>the</strong> separate collection<br />
“In Austria we are on <strong>the</strong> right track. Our customers, <strong>the</strong><br />
public authority and <strong>the</strong> waste co-operatives confirm this.<br />
The consumers also approve of <strong>the</strong> system: <strong>the</strong> excellent<br />
collection morale, <strong>the</strong> good collection quality and <strong>the</strong> high<br />
acceptance prove this,” explains Stiglitz and refers to a<br />
recently conducted survey of <strong>the</strong> Austrian Gallup Institute<br />
on behalf of <strong>the</strong> ARA system. Ninety per cent of <strong>the</strong> interviewed<br />
persons said that <strong>the</strong> collection of recyclable materials<br />
makes sense.<br />
Ninety-five per cent collect packaging separately from<br />
residual waste and six out of ten Austrians don’t see any<br />
additional ef<strong>for</strong>t <strong>for</strong> separate collection. Seventy-six per<br />
cent cannot imagine living without separate collection.<br />
Two reasons <strong>for</strong> acceptance are <strong>the</strong> tight net of collection<br />
containers all over <strong>the</strong> country and <strong>the</strong> knowledge of <strong>the</strong><br />
citizens about <strong>the</strong> value of recyclable materials <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> protection<br />
of natural resources: eight out of ten interviewees<br />
underline that <strong>the</strong> clean disposal of recyclable waste is also<br />
important <strong>for</strong> tourism and a positive public sentiment of<br />
Austria.<br />
“It was always very important to us, to explain to people not<br />
only how to collect but also why. Only if citizens like you and<br />
me understand <strong>the</strong> purpose of <strong>the</strong> separate collection, <strong>the</strong>y<br />
are favourable to it,” Stiglitz describes one factor of success<br />
<strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> high acceptance of <strong>the</strong> ARA system by Austrian citizens.
Feature | Separation System<br />
Equal terms of competition <strong>for</strong> all companies<br />
As <strong>the</strong> ARA System is obligated to treat its licensees on<br />
equal terms, <strong>the</strong> conditions <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> economy in Austria are<br />
much more balanced. To guarantee fair competition <strong>for</strong> all<br />
affected companies on <strong>the</strong> market, ARA examines and audits<br />
800 customers per year <strong>for</strong> compliance. By means of mar-<br />
keting and sales ARA also succeeds in keeping <strong>the</strong> number<br />
of participating companies – who partake in both collection<br />
and recovery <strong>for</strong> free – on a low level. This so called free rid-<br />
er quota is estimated to be at 10 to 15 per cent in <strong>the</strong> area<br />
of household packaging. Each year about 850 additional<br />
companies sign contracts with ARA. This means a net growth<br />
of <strong>the</strong> total number of clients of about 300 per year. By <strong>the</strong><br />
end of 2007 ARA serviced approximately 15,000 customers.<br />
In Germany large companies get special conditions. Fur<strong>the</strong>rmore<br />
<strong>the</strong> free rider quota is considerably higher. Experts<br />
estimate that only 60 per cent of <strong>the</strong> obligated companies<br />
in Germany contribute to <strong>the</strong> financing of <strong>the</strong> household collection.<br />
They are t<strong>here</strong><strong>for</strong>e under increasing pressure to cut<br />
costs through non-sustainable measures.<br />
ARA secures <strong>the</strong> market <strong>for</strong> small and medium<br />
sized waste management companies<br />
The ARA system has had positive effects on <strong>the</strong> Austrian<br />
economy: it secures some 3,000 jobs in waste management<br />
and allows a multifarious Austrian waste management<br />
industry to thrive. The ARA system closely cooperates with<br />
more than 200 regional waste management companies,<br />
recycling companies and waste management associations<br />
all over Austria, thus establishing a dense network <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
For <strong>the</strong> competing collection systems, citizen<br />
service and sustainability are not <strong>the</strong> decisive<br />
factors in Germany - cost is. That is why<br />
important in<strong>for</strong>mation and motivation <strong>for</strong><br />
consumers to seperate waste has been omitted.<br />
Containers with low fill rate and high litter<br />
polution rate are disposed of in order to save<br />
costs. The results: <strong>the</strong> motivation of citizens<br />
to seperate <strong>the</strong>ir waste disappears and <strong>the</strong><br />
entire waste disposal system falls apart.<br />
12<br />
efficient and cost-effective collection and recovery of packaging<br />
waste.<br />
In Germany <strong>the</strong> market is dominated by a few multinational<br />
waste management groups and most of <strong>the</strong>m hold <strong>the</strong>ir own<br />
collection and recovery system. It is clear that <strong>the</strong>se collection<br />
systems do not put all services to tender but first use<br />
<strong>the</strong> capacity of <strong>the</strong>ir own facilities. As a result, many small<br />
local waste operators have already disappeared and a takeover<br />
wave led to a reduction of <strong>the</strong> number of companies<br />
offering disposal services.<br />
In Austria <strong>the</strong> collection of packaging is working properly.<br />
More than 70 per cent of PET-bottles are recovered and<br />
more than 50 per cent recycled mechanically. This is one of<br />
<strong>the</strong> reasons why a deposit system <strong>for</strong> disposable beverage<br />
packaging as put into <strong>for</strong>ce in Germany was not implemented.<br />
To <strong>the</strong> contrary: <strong>the</strong> Austrian solution to <strong>the</strong> problem was<br />
a voluntary agreement between <strong>the</strong> Ministry of <strong>the</strong> Environment<br />
and <strong>the</strong> beverage industry – instead of a compulsory<br />
measure. The agenda achieved its aims: <strong>for</strong> instance 80<br />
per cent of <strong>the</strong> beverage packaging <strong>for</strong> consumers becomes<br />
Price war instead of citizen service<br />
Quota <strong>for</strong> Austrian/German collection containers (Gelbe Tonne)<br />
40–65%<br />
19%<br />
Germany Austria<br />
Source: ARA, German media reports (e.g. FAZ from 9.8.2006)
Package Recycling<br />
Editorial<br />
30 *<br />
Yearly Costs per Resident<br />
16<br />
Germany Austria<br />
* € 18 licensing cost + € 12 Cost of Operations <strong>for</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> disposable beverage packaging deposit system<br />
Source: DSD, Deutsche Pfandsysteme GmbH., ARA calculations, price basis 2005<br />
refilled or recycled. The goal <strong>for</strong> disposable PET bottles is to<br />
recycle at least 50 per cent of <strong>the</strong> amount put in <strong>the</strong> market.<br />
Beyond that a yearly increasing amount of PET has to be<br />
recycled <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> production of new PET beverage bottles – a<br />
bottle-to-bottle recycling. To reach <strong>the</strong>se goals <strong>the</strong> collection<br />
of PET bottles had to be increased by <strong>the</strong> ARA system, first<br />
by changing <strong>the</strong> lightweight packaging to a plastic bottle<br />
collection and second by extending <strong>the</strong> collection at events,<br />
public locations and o<strong>the</strong>r special collections on-site.<br />
Bottle-to-bottle recycling <strong>for</strong> Austria<br />
Since August 2007, Austria’s first bottle-to-bottle<br />
recycling plant is in full operation – less than one year<br />
after construction began. The plant is owned and run by<br />
a partnership between five of Austria’s biggest beverage<br />
producers – Coca-Cola Beverages Austria, Radlberger, Rauch,<br />
Spitz and Vöslauer – and provides ecological recycling of<br />
PET bottles in Austria. Its operation is a prerequisite <strong>for</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> beverage industry to reach <strong>the</strong> goal of <strong>the</strong> Agenda of<br />
Sustainability. At <strong>the</strong> moment 6,000 tonnes of food-grade<br />
recycled PET are produced annually <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> use in new<br />
bottles. With its Agenda of Sustainability, Austria proves that<br />
t<strong>here</strong> are o<strong>the</strong>r and vastly more efficient ways to protect<br />
<strong>the</strong> environment instead of installing a deposit system <strong>for</strong><br />
disposable beverage packaging at enormous costs.<br />
Including <strong>the</strong> cost of operation of <strong>the</strong> disposable<br />
beverage packaging deposit system, <strong>the</strong><br />
German system <strong>for</strong> used pagaging is twice<br />
that of Austria per capita. In Austria, this<br />
deposit system is not in place.<br />
German deposit system failed<br />
To achieve <strong>the</strong> minimum recovery quota requested by<br />
<strong>the</strong> European Community some countries established a<br />
mandatory deposit <strong>for</strong> disposable beverage packaging. A<br />
study of Roland Berger Strategy Consultants proves that a<br />
deposit is not a sustainable and efficient instrument to fulfil<br />
<strong>the</strong> European packaging directive.<br />
In Germany <strong>the</strong> deposit system was installed <strong>for</strong> a different<br />
reason. The goals were to first stabilise <strong>the</strong> refillable<br />
beverage packaging quota and second to minimise <strong>the</strong><br />
littering problem. The deposit system installed in 2003 by<br />
Germany was a very complex and expensive system. The<br />
existing infrastructure of <strong>the</strong> dual recovery systems was<br />
ignored and a new take back material stream established<br />
through retail outlets, shops, gas stations etc. Installing this<br />
system cost EUR 726 million; to run <strong>the</strong> deposit system <strong>the</strong><br />
German economy pays EUR 793 million per year. Taking into<br />
consideration that only 2.7 per cent of <strong>the</strong> packaging quantities<br />
are disposable beverage packaging, <strong>the</strong> costs of <strong>the</strong><br />
deposit system are immense compared to its ecological<br />
benefits. The deposit system is <strong>the</strong>n triple <strong>the</strong> cost of household<br />
collection.<br />
The deposit system missed <strong>the</strong> environmental goal of <strong>the</strong> German<br />
packaging ordinance spectacularly: after a short positive<br />
effect at <strong>the</strong> start of <strong>the</strong> deposit system <strong>the</strong> quota of reusable<br />
packaging declined. Only beer fulfils <strong>the</strong> politically aimed<br />
quota <strong>for</strong> reusable packaging of 80 per cent. The quota <strong>for</strong><br />
refillable non-alcoholic beverages has been almost free fall:<br />
while it was 57.5 per cent be<strong>for</strong>e <strong>the</strong> mandatory deposit in<br />
2003, it is now at an all time low of 29.9 per cent four years<br />
later – with no end in sight. O<strong>the</strong>r goals such as <strong>the</strong> significant<br />
increase of material recovery and litter reduction were<br />
also missed: recovery went up a mere 10 to 15 per cent and<br />
<strong>the</strong> effect on littering was not measurable.<br />
13
Feature | Separation System<br />
“To invest almost EUR 800 million and accept a yearly cost<br />
of ano<strong>the</strong>r EUR 800 million with <strong>the</strong>se results is not justi-<br />
fied! I ask <strong>the</strong> environmental authorities in all EU member<br />
states to look at this failure be<strong>for</strong>e <strong>the</strong>y decide on mandato-<br />
ry deposit systems in <strong>the</strong>ir country,” says Stiglitz.<br />
The study of Roland Berger Strategy Consultants confirms<br />
that Austria is on <strong>the</strong> right track with its Agenda of Sustain-<br />
ability <strong>for</strong> beverage packaging.<br />
Waste reduction as a new goal<br />
For five years now ARA is also obligated to support waste<br />
avoidance and waste reduction activities. One of <strong>the</strong> first<br />
projects in 2003 was <strong>the</strong> financing of a chair <strong>for</strong> resource<br />
management at <strong>the</strong> Technical University of Vienna. One of<br />
<strong>the</strong> goals was to close <strong>the</strong> loop between waste management<br />
and design plus production by creating a knowledge base.<br />
Students should learn how products should be designed<br />
<strong>for</strong> optimised recycling material streams. O<strong>the</strong>r actions<br />
included setting up an initiative to support small and medium<br />
sized enterprises in <strong>the</strong>ir ef<strong>for</strong>t in waste avoidance. This<br />
major project is run in cooperation with <strong>the</strong> City of Vienna,<br />
<strong>the</strong> province of Lower Austria and <strong>the</strong> Austrian Camber of<br />
Commerce. Small and medium sized enterprises can apply<br />
<strong>for</strong> investment grants that are directed towards waste avoidance.<br />
If <strong>the</strong> submitted project fulfils <strong>the</strong> guidelines of this<br />
In Germany, licensing fees <strong>for</strong> disposal<br />
in a dual system (DSD) is<br />
only paid <strong>for</strong> two out of three pieces<br />
of packaging. Two-thirds of <strong>the</strong> company<br />
t<strong>here</strong><strong>for</strong>e carry <strong>the</strong> entire costs<br />
of disposal of packaging through <strong>the</strong><br />
packaging disposal container (Gelbe<br />
Tonne). In Austria, thanks to intensive<br />
cooperation between business,<br />
municipalities and communities<br />
and under <strong>the</strong> supervision of ARA,<br />
90 per cent of <strong>the</strong> amounts disposed<br />
of within <strong>the</strong> packaging life cycle are<br />
licensed with <strong>the</strong> ARA by <strong>the</strong> producers<br />
of <strong>the</strong> waste and in accordance<br />
with <strong>the</strong> rules.<br />
14<br />
initiative, one third of <strong>the</strong> investment cost will be covered.<br />
ARA also is very active in <strong>the</strong> waste management of large<br />
events. Besides setting up an optimised collection system<br />
<strong>for</strong> large events, ARA supports organisers in planning waste<br />
avoidance measures. During <strong>the</strong> event, ARA experts teach<br />
visitors how to avoid waste and how to separate packaging<br />
properly.<br />
Competition in <strong>the</strong> household sector<br />
must not endanger achievements<br />
Recently <strong>the</strong> household packaging sector in Austria was discovered<br />
as a new market by <strong>the</strong> new entrepreneurs in Germany.<br />
Of course ARA will take up this challenge; after all<br />
competition in trade and industrial sectors has exists since<br />
1996 and ARA managed quite well. “T<strong>here</strong> is nothing wrong<br />
with competition – government however must make sure<br />
through appropriate legislation that t<strong>here</strong> is a level playing<br />
field <strong>for</strong> all competitors especially in this sensitive area. It<br />
must also be taken into consideration whe<strong>the</strong>r competition<br />
in <strong>the</strong> household packaging arena endangers <strong>the</strong> national<br />
ecological and economical achievements and benefits created<br />
over <strong>the</strong> years. It must also not decrease <strong>the</strong> flexibility<br />
and improvement potential of <strong>the</strong> collection system. Such<br />
effects that we see in Germany are not desirable ones,” says<br />
Stiglitz. v<br />
Green dot: one-third of payers break off<br />
licensing<br />
fees not paid<br />
licensing<br />
fees paid<br />
Germany Austria<br />
Source: DSD, ARA calculations, proce basis 2005<br />
licensing<br />
fees not paid<br />
licensing<br />
fees paid
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Analysis | Primary Materials<br />
Hedging against<br />
commodity price risks<br />
Three Examples of how to react on <strong>the</strong> market situation<br />
The strong movements in commodity prices over <strong>the</strong> past<br />
few years have had a major impact on many companies’<br />
core business and financial results. Within <strong>the</strong> metal<br />
industry, firms involved in processing, as well as produc-<br />
ers and recycling companies, are all feeling <strong>the</strong> repercus-<br />
sions. Mainly due to <strong>the</strong> very high volatility (fluctuation<br />
intensity), results are hard to predict.<br />
Particularly in <strong>the</strong> recycling industry, price movement risks<br />
principally occur between <strong>the</strong> time of purchase and <strong>the</strong> final<br />
sale of recycled commodities. If, <strong>for</strong> example, various scrap<br />
is bought, recycled over <strong>the</strong> next three months into sepa-<br />
rate components, such as copper, nickel, aluminium, molyb-<br />
denum or o<strong>the</strong>r metals, and <strong>the</strong>n sold, t<strong>here</strong> is <strong>the</strong> risk of a<br />
price decrease in <strong>the</strong> market <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> individual components<br />
between <strong>the</strong> purchase date and <strong>the</strong> sale date. Due to <strong>the</strong><br />
high fluctuation intensity, this risk can assume significant<br />
proportions.<br />
The term ‘hedging’ is often mentioned when referring to price<br />
fluctuation risks. But what does hedging actually involve,<br />
particularly in connection with <strong>the</strong> metal processing and<br />
recycling industries?<br />
In this context, hedging against commodity prices is generally<br />
used, and it can be carried out via several strategies.<br />
Some are offered in <strong>the</strong> financial sp<strong>here</strong>, <strong>for</strong> example by<br />
banks. In this case, hedging instruments are involved that<br />
should be seen as generally completely divorced from <strong>the</strong><br />
physical supply of <strong>the</strong> raw material. Similar to strategies <strong>for</strong><br />
interest or currencies, t<strong>here</strong> are many different possibilities<br />
that can be adapted to <strong>the</strong> market opinion and/or <strong>the</strong> individual<br />
situation in a company.<br />
But <strong>the</strong> first step be<strong>for</strong>e <strong>the</strong> various hedging instruments or<br />
possibilities should even be considered is to ascertain <strong>the</strong><br />
16<br />
actual risk position <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> individual commodities used by<br />
<strong>the</strong> company – i.e. <strong>for</strong> what proportion of <strong>the</strong> core business<br />
can risks and/or losses arise in <strong>the</strong> event of negative price<br />
trends, do prices that have dropped during <strong>the</strong> recycling<br />
process have to be passed on to <strong>the</strong> purchaser.<br />
Once <strong>the</strong> way in which <strong>the</strong> company is exposed to a price<br />
fluctuation risk has been established, various hedging<br />
options may be appropriate.<br />
Financial institutions usually offer pure hedging instruments<br />
(derivatives) that do not encompass a physical supply of <strong>the</strong><br />
raw material. When financial derivatives are used to hedge<br />
against price risks, a distinction is made between procure-<br />
ment management and price management.<br />
Advantages: by separating <strong>the</strong> price from <strong>the</strong> procurement<br />
decision, a recycling company’s entire raw material procure-<br />
ment – and later sale – can, <strong>for</strong> example, be made with dif-<br />
50<br />
40<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
0<br />
1 year volatility of various<br />
base values<br />
DAX<br />
DJ Ind. Avrg<br />
British Petroleum<br />
EUR/USD<br />
USD/JPY<br />
IPE Brent<br />
1.0% Fuel Oil<br />
0.2% Gas Oil<br />
Aluminium<br />
Copper<br />
Nickel<br />
Source: Deutsche Bank AG, Global Markets Research
Editorial<br />
Procurement Management Price Management<br />
Delivery date<br />
Delivery quantity<br />
Most favourable contractual conditions<br />
Best daily price<br />
ferent suppliers on a variable price basis and with different<br />
purchasers, and it can be covered by a single hedge with<br />
one calculation price.<br />
Disadvantages: Hedging by means of a ‘financial derivative’<br />
does not guarantee physical supply. T<strong>here</strong><strong>for</strong>e, if <strong>the</strong> core<br />
business – <strong>the</strong> physical supply – is not effected (<strong>for</strong> example,<br />
because <strong>the</strong> supplier cannot provide <strong>the</strong> specified quantity),<br />
but <strong>the</strong> hedge is still in place, it can result in payments –<br />
depending on hedging strategy – even though <strong>the</strong> core business<br />
is not being per<strong>for</strong>med.<br />
As opposed to physical fixed price supply, a negative market<br />
development can lead to a negative financial rating when<br />
using ‘financial’ hedging instruments (financial derivatives),<br />
depending on hedging strategy.<br />
Market conditions<br />
The basis <strong>for</strong> every ‘financial’ hedge is <strong>the</strong> respective <strong>for</strong>ward<br />
rate curve. This tells a commodities buyer what price a hedge<br />
<strong>for</strong> a future date or period of time can be fixed at. This curve<br />
can take different <strong>for</strong>ms. For example, if <strong>the</strong> <strong>for</strong>ward prices<br />
are higher than <strong>the</strong> prices <strong>for</strong> a short-term delivery, e.g. <strong>the</strong><br />
cash price (delivery in two business days), this is known as<br />
a contango. However, if <strong>the</strong> <strong>for</strong>ward prices are lower than <strong>the</strong><br />
spot price, this is referred to as backwardation.<br />
To calculate <strong>the</strong> <strong>for</strong>ward rate curve, several factors are drawn<br />
on, <strong>for</strong> example <strong>the</strong> short-term price (spot price), storage<br />
costs, interest charges, production costs and <strong>the</strong> influence<br />
of <strong>the</strong> wea<strong>the</strong>r.<br />
T<strong>here</strong> are several options to hedge against a price decline:<br />
in this context, it is certainly useful to be familiar with finan-<br />
Fixed price<br />
Price ceiling or price floor<br />
Commodity purchase<br />
Source: Deutsche Bank AG, Global Markets Research<br />
cial price hedging options and to put <strong>the</strong>m into practice, if<br />
required. To this end, t<strong>here</strong> are numerous different strategies<br />
that can be tailored to a company’s individual requirements<br />
or situation. This article intends to examine <strong>the</strong> following<br />
options in more detail.<br />
1. Securing a fixed price via financial futures trading (swap)<br />
2. Securing a ‘minimum price’ by buying a put option with<br />
full participation in rising market prices<br />
3. Securing a fixed price via a floating-floating swap<br />
Example: swap – securing a fixed price<br />
A company wants to secure a fixed price today <strong>for</strong> a later time<br />
period, e.g. <strong>the</strong> second half of 2008, <strong>for</strong> its nickel sales. A contract<br />
based, <strong>for</strong> example, on <strong>the</strong> monthly average rates of <strong>the</strong><br />
London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel cash price quotations<br />
is negotiated with <strong>the</strong> purchaser. Additionally, a swap hedge<br />
is completed with a bank <strong>for</strong> 2009, through which <strong>the</strong> company<br />
receives a fixed price, while in return paying <strong>the</strong> bank <strong>the</strong><br />
monthly average of <strong>the</strong> daily LME nickel cash price quotations.<br />
Overall, <strong>the</strong> variable payment flows cancel each o<strong>the</strong>r out,<br />
leaving just <strong>the</strong> payment flow <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> fixed price and <strong>the</strong><br />
commodity supply.<br />
This means that <strong>the</strong> secured fixed price is completely independent<br />
of <strong>the</strong> material procurement/sale.<br />
Advantage: with a fixed price swap strategy, <strong>the</strong> company is<br />
hedged against falling prices. It does not have to pay a premium.<br />
Disadvantage: <strong>the</strong> company cannot participate in rising<br />
prices; physical supply is not covered by completing a swap.<br />
Objective: securing a fixed calculation basis.<br />
17
Analysis | Primary Materials<br />
In figures, e.g. <strong>for</strong> nickel: cash price US-Dollar 28,000/metric<br />
tonne, <strong>for</strong>ward price <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> second half of 2008 with monthly<br />
settlement is e.g. US-Dollar 28,300/metric tonne and t<strong>here</strong>-<br />
<strong>for</strong>e US-Dollar 300/metric tonne above <strong>the</strong> cash price.<br />
Example: put option<br />
A company has to pass price decreases on to its purchasers,<br />
but can also usually put through rising prices. Hedging<br />
through buying a put option is an alternative <strong>here</strong>. In this<br />
way, <strong>the</strong> company can participate in rising prices in <strong>the</strong> core<br />
business (if this is set up on a variable price basis) and is<br />
still hedged against falling prices.<br />
A put option works in a similar way to a sort of ‘insurance’. A<br />
minimum price, or strike price, is secured. For prices below<br />
<strong>the</strong> strike price, a compensatory payment <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> benefit of<br />
<strong>the</strong> option buyer is made. For prices above <strong>the</strong> strike price,<br />
<strong>the</strong> put option buyer can fully participate in <strong>the</strong> higher prices<br />
in <strong>the</strong> core business. To do this, however, a premium has<br />
to be paid upon purchase of <strong>the</strong> option.<br />
The size of <strong>the</strong> option premium depends in particular on <strong>the</strong><br />
following factors:<br />
- strike price<br />
- duration<br />
- volatility (fluctuation intensity) of <strong>the</strong> commodity<br />
Advantage: hedge against falling prices; full participation in<br />
rising prices.<br />
Disadvantage: high premium costs; physical supply is not<br />
guaranteed by completing a put option.<br />
Objective: securing a fixed calculation basis, participation<br />
in rising prices.<br />
18<br />
variable price<br />
Purchaser Company<br />
commodity fixed price<br />
variable price<br />
Purchaser Company<br />
variable price<br />
poss. compensatory paymt<br />
raw material premium payment<br />
<strong>for</strong> ‘safe chance’<br />
In figures, <strong>for</strong> nickel: cash price per metric tonne = US-Dollar<br />
28,000, Strike price <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> option e.g. US-Dollar 28,000/<br />
metric tonne, premium: US-Dollar 3,200/metric tonne<br />
As many companies cannot easily take <strong>the</strong> hedging costs –<br />
which are very high due to <strong>the</strong> high volatility in commodities,<br />
<strong>for</strong> example – into account in <strong>the</strong>ir calculation, strategies are<br />
often preferred which are defined as ‘somew<strong>here</strong> between’<br />
futures trading and an option. These can be, <strong>for</strong> example,<br />
fluctuation margin strategies or o<strong>the</strong>r structured hedging<br />
strategies.<br />
Example: securing a fixed price<br />
via a floating-floating swap<br />
In one quarter, a recycling company purchases scrap that<br />
has a nickel content of around ten per cent. As <strong>the</strong> nickel<br />
price has a high fluctuation intensity, it is very much a pricesetting<br />
factor <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> purchased scrap. In this example,<br />
<strong>the</strong> process of recycling <strong>the</strong> scrap into almost pure nickel<br />
takes around three months, meaning its sale begins in<br />
<strong>the</strong> subsequent quarter. If <strong>the</strong> nickel price drops in this<br />
subsequent quarter, <strong>the</strong> price decline would have a negative<br />
impact in terms of <strong>the</strong> selling price <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> recycling company.<br />
To avoid this, <strong>the</strong> following transaction can be completed.<br />
A floating-floating swap works in a very similar way to<br />
securing a fixed price as described above. Here, <strong>the</strong> recycling<br />
company hedges itself <strong>for</strong> one quarter against a falling<br />
nickel price. The average price of <strong>the</strong> previous-quarter prices<br />
established on <strong>the</strong> LME is taken as a basis <strong>for</strong> securing <strong>the</strong><br />
price. In this way, securing <strong>the</strong> price <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> sales prices is<br />
more closely linked to <strong>the</strong> purchase prices.<br />
Securing <strong>the</strong> price is completely independent of <strong>the</strong> material<br />
procurement/sale.
Editorial<br />
Advantage: through <strong>the</strong> strategy of securing a fixed price<br />
(swap), <strong>the</strong> company is hedged against failing prices. T<strong>here</strong><br />
are no ‘premium costs’. The hedging price <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> ‘sale’ is<br />
based on <strong>the</strong> prices <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> ‘purchase period’. Due to <strong>the</strong><br />
set-up of <strong>the</strong> <strong>for</strong>ward rate curve (spread), <strong>the</strong> sales price is<br />
higher than <strong>the</strong> purchase price.<br />
Disadvantage: <strong>the</strong> company cannot participate in rising<br />
prices. Physical supply is not covered by securing a fixed<br />
price (swap).<br />
Objective: securing a fixed calculation basis.<br />
In figures, e.g. <strong>for</strong> nickel: spread: US-Dollar 200/metric tonne.<br />
If <strong>the</strong> price is fixed at US-Dollar 28,000/metric tonne in <strong>the</strong><br />
‘purchase quarter’, <strong>the</strong> recycling company is hedged with a<br />
price of US-Dollar 28,200 <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> ‘sales quarter’. The hedging<br />
instruments described <strong>here</strong> are only a small selection of <strong>the</strong><br />
available options. T<strong>here</strong> are both numerous strategies and<br />
numerous commodities that can be considered <strong>for</strong> financial<br />
hedging strategies.<br />
Steffen Rapp<br />
Regarding commodities <strong>for</strong> which t<strong>here</strong> is no direct price<br />
securing option, it is often worthwhile to compare <strong>the</strong><br />
price trends <strong>for</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r commodities that are ‘financially<br />
tradable’with <strong>the</strong> price trend <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> commodity used in <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
own company, and to hedge <strong>the</strong> risks that could arise using<br />
a financial hedging strategy <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> ‘tradable commodity’, if<br />
necessary. v Steffen Rapp, Deutsche Bank<br />
19
Opinion | Graham Davy<br />
Come toge<strong>the</strong>r...<br />
The European Market: one directive, but 27 <strong>version</strong>s of WEEE<br />
Following up on his recent speech given at <strong>the</strong> January<br />
IERC (International Electronic Recycler’s Congress)<br />
conference in Austria, Graham Davy, Global Chief<br />
Executive of Sims Recycling Solutions, takes a look at<br />
global responses to <strong>the</strong> challenge of e-waste. As one of<br />
<strong>the</strong> very few organisations that are capable of viewing ewaste<br />
from a global perspective, Davy is ideally placed to<br />
give his opinion on improving his response to <strong>the</strong> issue.<br />
The European Union (EU) was created to promote <strong>the</strong> free<br />
movement of goods, labour and services but this is not<br />
what is happening with regard to ei<strong>the</strong>r product recycling or<br />
product reuse. Indeed, <strong>the</strong> EU is anything but one market<br />
- while t<strong>here</strong> is one EU directive, t<strong>here</strong> seems to be 27 different<br />
<strong>version</strong>s of Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment<br />
(WEEE) implementation, as well as <strong>the</strong> same number of<br />
interpretations of <strong>the</strong> ‘permitting’ regulations. Each country<br />
is able to put its own blocks on <strong>the</strong> free movement of WEEE<br />
across country boundaries, which results in difficulties <strong>for</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> industry and society in achieving sustainable economies<br />
of scale. In addition, transfrontier shipment regulations are<br />
a barrier to <strong>the</strong> trade of WEEE product and add cost into <strong>the</strong><br />
The Austrian translation of WEEE<br />
is different to those on <strong>the</strong><br />
o<strong>the</strong>r side of <strong>the</strong> alps.<br />
20<br />
supply chain. But should t<strong>here</strong> be <strong>the</strong>se barriers between<br />
<strong>the</strong> generally well-developed economies of Europe?<br />
Following implementation of <strong>the</strong> Restriction of use of certain<br />
Hazardous Substances (ROHS) Directive, affected electronics<br />
manufacturers were able to produce one product <strong>for</strong> all 27<br />
countries. However, post-WEEE requires recyclers and <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
customers to have 27 different solutions <strong>for</strong> recovery and<br />
recycling. The result is that European recyclers working on<br />
<strong>the</strong> international stage are placed at a disadvantage.<br />
Complex pictures all over <strong>the</strong> world<br />
Looking at <strong>the</strong> United States t<strong>here</strong> is very little in <strong>the</strong> way of<br />
a unified federal response to e-waste – more like a patchwork<br />
of 50 individual states, w<strong>here</strong> some have e-waste<br />
legislation and o<strong>the</strong>rs don’t. Export controls may be federal<br />
but in practice are often confused with state arrangements<br />
<strong>for</strong> e-waste legislation, while penalties vary hugely. The U.S.<br />
has not signed <strong>the</strong> Basel agreement, giving U.S. exporters<br />
a distinct advantage over European recyclers. Elsew<strong>here</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> picture is equally complex with Canada’s responses<br />
<strong>for</strong>mulated by <strong>the</strong> provinces and Australia having no national<br />
legislation addressing <strong>the</strong> issue.
Editorial<br />
Graham Davy at <strong>the</strong> IERC<br />
in Salzburg, Austria.<br />
Across <strong>the</strong> APAC region, <strong>the</strong> main concerns are very much<br />
responsible recyclers who have invested millions feel <strong>the</strong><br />
pain, whilst unscrupulous merchants are benefiting through<br />
false paperwork and opportunistic middlemen investing little<br />
in real assets. We need to en<strong>for</strong>ce best recycling practices<br />
across <strong>the</strong> world and remove <strong>the</strong> ambiguity of recovery<br />
versus recycling. Indeed, failure to set high standards<br />
focussed on illegal shipments to <strong>the</strong> region, <strong>the</strong> relatively punishes responsible recyclers in favour of cowboy operators.<br />
young recycling infrastructure in <strong>the</strong> area as well as under- We must work harder with central government to aid <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
developed environmental, health and safety standards. From understanding of <strong>the</strong>ir own processes.<br />
a global perspective, it is clear that we are a long way away It would not be overstating things to suggest that <strong>the</strong><br />
from an even playing field.<br />
combination of poor en<strong>for</strong>cement will threaten <strong>the</strong><br />
However, my main concern is that central government existence of responsible recyclers, w<strong>here</strong>ver <strong>the</strong>y are<br />
is not focusing upon implementation and en<strong>for</strong>cement. situated in <strong>the</strong> world. It will also prop up <strong>the</strong> export of<br />
Compliance must be audited and en<strong>for</strong>ced – with punish- WEEE, encourage illegal practices and discriminate against<br />
ments fitting <strong>the</strong> crime – ra<strong>the</strong>r than being a slap on <strong>the</strong> positive sustainability and best practice. In addition, poor<br />
wrist. In addition, we need to put an end to illegal local en<strong>for</strong>cement works as a tax on each citizen as well as<br />
practices and export. Governments should be actively facili- impacting heavily upon <strong>the</strong> environment, <strong>the</strong> biggest driver<br />
tating <strong>the</strong> free movement of output streams <strong>for</strong> secondary of all.<br />
manufacture worldwide.<br />
The recycling industry is a common sense industry – and<br />
As a society, we must also learn to recognise <strong>the</strong> shifting an industry that reacts extremely quickly to changes in<br />
dynamics in manufacturing and be able to react quickly to <strong>the</strong> business environment. But lengthy red tape and even<br />
any changes in <strong>the</strong> trends of recycled material movement. longer reversal procedures are, sadly, letting <strong>the</strong> recycling<br />
Governments apply often competing legislation that flies in sector down when it comes to seeking to achieve higher and<br />
<strong>the</strong> face of common sense recycling strategies. For example, sustainable recycling targets. What we still lack is direction<br />
CRT-based glass production is now prevalent in Asia. Yet, EU from government as to how legislation should be shaped<br />
red tape prevents streams of recycled glass from <strong>the</strong> EU being in order to foster a smooth implementation and transition<br />
exported to willing buyers in Asia <strong>for</strong> closed loop recycling. to longer term strategies <strong>for</strong> willing investors. My view was<br />
Ano<strong>the</strong>r example of <strong>the</strong> result of over-stringent bureaucracy – and still is – that <strong>the</strong> government believes recycling is<br />
can be seen with regard to plastics production, which is <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> easy part of <strong>the</strong> equation and places it low amongst<br />
<strong>the</strong> most part carried out in Asia. Again due to EU regulation its priorities. However, <strong>the</strong> responsible recycling industry<br />
it is almost impossible to export recovered plastics – is suffering from a lack of understanding of its dynam-<br />
including single polymer streams – commercially because ics and government would do well to listen and implement<br />
Europe still regards single polymer material from processed some common sense strategies that safeguard <strong>the</strong> future of<br />
end-of-life products as waste ra<strong>the</strong>r than product. T<strong>here</strong><strong>for</strong>e, environmentally responsible operators. v<br />
21
Market | BaseMetals<br />
Survey of <strong>for</strong>ecasts<br />
Survey of BaseMetals analysts shows interesting results<br />
Last month, BaseMetals.com published a survey of a poll<br />
of researchers, who make a living by analysing <strong>the</strong> metal<br />
markets and listing <strong>the</strong>ir <strong>for</strong>ecasts of average base metal<br />
prices <strong>for</strong> this year. The survey – which reported <strong>the</strong> <strong>for</strong>ecasts<br />
of 22 analysts threw up some interesting results.<br />
Part of an analyst’s function is of course to attempt to<br />
<strong>for</strong>ecast prices – which, as those of us who do it know, is a<br />
pretty thankless task. As far as we are aware of, no one pre-<br />
dicted that <strong>the</strong> base metals would reach <strong>the</strong> giddy heights<br />
recorded in <strong>the</strong> past couple of years. This was due to <strong>the</strong><br />
huge influx of fund money into commodities. In fact, too<br />
much emphasis is probably placed on this aspect of an<br />
analyst’s work. That said, analysts don’t hesitate to take<br />
credit when <strong>the</strong>ir <strong>for</strong>ecasts prove to be accurate, but <strong>the</strong><br />
good ones know that this is more often a reflection of luck<br />
ra<strong>the</strong>r than judgement. When we get it right it is often <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
wrong reasons.<br />
Average annual<br />
actual and <strong>for</strong>ecast<br />
Base Metal Prices<br />
(USD/tonne)<br />
22<br />
40,000<br />
35,000<br />
30,000<br />
25,000<br />
20,000<br />
15,000<br />
10,000<br />
5,000<br />
0<br />
Aluminium<br />
2006 actual<br />
2007 actual<br />
2008 <strong>for</strong>ecast<br />
Copperium<br />
With <strong>the</strong> exception of zinc, <strong>the</strong> metals all outper<strong>for</strong>med <strong>the</strong><br />
average of analysts’ expectations in 2007 – in <strong>the</strong> case of<br />
lead spectacularly so. Apart from aluminium, which was only<br />
8.5 per cent higher than <strong>the</strong> consensus, <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>rs also outstripped<br />
expectations by a good margin. This year <strong>the</strong> consensus<br />
is that o<strong>the</strong>r than tin, prices will fall across <strong>the</strong> board,<br />
most notably in <strong>the</strong> cases of zinc and nickel. This year <strong>the</strong><br />
aluminium price is expected to fall by 4.5 per cent from last<br />
year’s average of US-Dollar 2,640. The decline would be<br />
greater were it not <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> fact that four analysts expect <strong>the</strong><br />
average price to be higher this year than in 2007. The highest<br />
<strong>for</strong>ecast is <strong>for</strong> an average of US-Dollar 2,850, while <strong>the</strong> lowest<br />
is US-Dollar 2,306. In any case, one wonders w<strong>here</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
bulls expect prices to get to given that <strong>the</strong>y are currently trading<br />
around 400 US-Dollar below <strong>the</strong> <strong>for</strong>ecasted high average.<br />
BaseMetals.com’s base case <strong>for</strong>ecast is near <strong>the</strong> lower end of<br />
<strong>the</strong> range at US-Dollar 2,350, but even this may prove optimistic<br />
if <strong>the</strong> economic environment continues to deteriorate.<br />
Zincerium<br />
Leaderium<br />
Nickel<br />
Tin
Editorial<br />
60,000 Highelium Low<br />
50,000<br />
40,000<br />
30,000<br />
20,000<br />
10,000<br />
0<br />
Aluminium<br />
Our <strong>for</strong>ecast <strong>for</strong> copper of US-Dollar 6000 is <strong>the</strong> lowest of<br />
<strong>the</strong> sample, of which <strong>the</strong> high is US-Dollar 7,800. This is<br />
from one of three analysts who believe <strong>the</strong> average price this<br />
year will be higher than in 2007. We can only assume that<br />
<strong>the</strong>se analysts take a more sanguine view about <strong>the</strong> global<br />
economy than most o<strong>the</strong>rs and/or <strong>the</strong>y expect production<br />
to once again fall short of expectations. In any event, <strong>the</strong><br />
consensus is that <strong>the</strong> copper price will average 5.1 per cent<br />
lower this year than in 2007. We think this optimistic on a<br />
Panglossian scale.<br />
Copperium<br />
Zincerium<br />
Leaderium<br />
Nickelium<br />
No one expects <strong>the</strong> zinc price to be higher this year, although<br />
<strong>the</strong> spread between <strong>the</strong> highest and lowest <strong>for</strong>ecast ties<br />
with lead as being <strong>the</strong> greatest at 38 per cent. However, <strong>the</strong><br />
highest <strong>for</strong>ecast of an average of US-Dollar 2,850, as well<br />
as a number of o<strong>the</strong>rs, suggests that prices are expected to<br />
rally strongly, given that <strong>the</strong> market is currently trading below<br />
US-Dollar 2,300. We think this extremely unlikely and our<br />
<strong>for</strong>ecast of US-Dollar 2,200 is <strong>the</strong> lower end of expectations.<br />
The consensus is that lead prices will fall on average by just<br />
3 per cent this year to US-Dollar 2,511. Again we think this<br />
is optimistic and are <strong>for</strong>ecasting US-Dollar 2,200. As noted,<br />
t<strong>here</strong> is a wide divergence of opinion – although having said<br />
that, <strong>the</strong> high <strong>for</strong>ecast of US-Dollar 3,300 is ra<strong>the</strong>r out on a<br />
limb as is <strong>the</strong> low of US-Dollar 2,050, with most <strong>for</strong>ecasts in<br />
Tinkelium<br />
High and low <strong>for</strong>ecasts 2008 base<br />
metals prices (US-Dollar/tonne).<br />
<strong>the</strong> US-Dollar 2,000-2,500 range. Four analysts believe <strong>the</strong><br />
average price will be higher this year than in 2007.<br />
The nickel price is expected to record a substantial fall this<br />
year, with <strong>the</strong> consensus pointing to a 25.5 per cent slump<br />
to US-Dollar 27,782. All analysts agree that <strong>the</strong> price will fall,<br />
although t<strong>here</strong> is a wide spread on <strong>the</strong> extent of <strong>the</strong> decline,<br />
with a high of US-Dollar 30,864 (14 US-Dollar/lb) and a<br />
low of US-Dollar 24,000 – which is our <strong>for</strong>ecast – compared<br />
with US-Dollar 37,275 last year. As <strong>for</strong> tin, most analysts<br />
expect <strong>the</strong> average price this year to be higher than in 2007<br />
and even those who do not are predicting prices at near historically<br />
high levels. Again, BaseMetals.com is near <strong>the</strong> bottom<br />
of <strong>the</strong> scale, with a <strong>for</strong>ecast of US-Dollar 13,000.<br />
Finally, we’ve made two observations:<br />
• Firstly, <strong>the</strong>se metals do not trade in a vacuum and <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
price movements are often dependent not only on <strong>the</strong> major<br />
contracts (particularly copper) and o<strong>the</strong>r commodities (such<br />
as oil and precious metals). Looking at <strong>the</strong> table of <strong>for</strong>ecasts,<br />
it appears that some analysts have failed to take this<br />
into account.<br />
• Moreover, most analysts seem to have a ra<strong>the</strong>r rose-tinted<br />
view of <strong>the</strong> global economic outlook and <strong>the</strong> <strong>for</strong>ecasts generally<br />
portray that t<strong>here</strong> is a good deal of ‘fence sitting’ going<br />
on. Given how <strong>the</strong> markets have moved in <strong>the</strong> past couple of<br />
years this is entirely understandable, but only serves to confirm<br />
that <strong>for</strong>ecasting is a mug’s game. u<br />
23
Data | Market<br />
S����� �� L����� M���� E������� (�� �, � = �������)<br />
Store 21.02.08 20.02.08 Landing Delivery<br />
HG Alu 951,250 952,725 550 2025<br />
Ingots 317,650 318,450 800<br />
Baltimore 6,300 6,350 50<br />
Bilbao 13,650 13,650<br />
Chicago 975 975<br />
Detroit 250 250<br />
Johor 46,200 46,350 150<br />
Kwangyang 12,025 12,025<br />
Moji 50 50<br />
New Orleans 275 275<br />
Pusan 31,050 31,550 500<br />
Rotterdam 45,200 45,200<br />
Singapore 161,675 161,775 100<br />
T-Bars 337,550 337,975 75 500<br />
Baltimore 151,500 151,750 75 325<br />
Chicago 60,150 60,175 25<br />
Detroit 15,925 15,925<br />
Göteborg 1,650 1,650<br />
Helsingborg 3,025 3,025<br />
Hull 12,900 12,900<br />
Johor 1,100 1,100<br />
Kwangyang 1,825 1,825<br />
Liverpool 12,400 12,400<br />
Long Beach 6,350 6,350<br />
New Orleans 2,575 2,625 50<br />
Pusan 2,800 2,800<br />
Rotterdam 17,550 17,550<br />
Singapore 27,675 27,675<br />
St. Louis 9,925 10,025 100<br />
Vlissingen 10,200 10,200<br />
Sows 296,050 296,300 475 725<br />
Baltimore 77,500 77,550 25 75<br />
Bilbao 375 375<br />
Chicago 19,350 19,350<br />
Detroit 42,550 42,550<br />
Göteborg 2,275 2,275<br />
Johor 7,975 7,725 250<br />
Long Beach 525 525<br />
New Orleans 2,850 2,925 75<br />
Pusan 175 200 25<br />
Rotterdam 30,175 30,175<br />
Singapore 110,775 111,125 200 550<br />
St. Louis 1,525 1525<br />
Alum. Alloy 40,220 40,440 220<br />
Ing. A380.1 22,560 22,760 200<br />
Bilbao 500 500<br />
Bremen 120 120<br />
Genoa 18,040 18,240 200<br />
Hamburg 60 60<br />
Liverpool 720 720<br />
24<br />
Store 21.02.08 20.02.08 Landing Delivery<br />
Rotterdam 100 100<br />
Singapore 40 40<br />
Triest 2380 2,380<br />
Vlissingen 600 600<br />
Ing. 226 16,300 16,320 20<br />
Antwerp 980 980<br />
Johor 2,980 2980<br />
Liverpool 300 300<br />
Rotterdam 5,220 5,240 20<br />
Singapore 5,000 5,000<br />
Triest 20 20<br />
Vlissingen 1,800 1,800<br />
Ing. D12S 380 380<br />
Singapore 300 300<br />
Triest 80 80<br />
LS26 980 980<br />
Antwerp 20 20<br />
Rotterdam 620 620<br />
Singapore 160 160<br />
Vlissingen 180 180<br />
Copper 141,600 135,375 8,400 2,175<br />
A Cathodes 141,600 135,375 8,400 2,175<br />
Antwerp 1,275 1,375 100<br />
Baltimore 650 650<br />
Bilbao 1,375 1,575 200<br />
Dubai 25 25<br />
Hull 14,725 8,725 6000<br />
Johor 125 125<br />
Kwangyang 27,275 27,275<br />
Leghorn 6,750 7,650 900<br />
Liverpool 200 200<br />
New Orleans 26,650 27,125 475<br />
Pusan 13,850 11,475 2,400 25<br />
Rotterdam 7,900 8,250 350<br />
Singapore 7,950 8,050 100<br />
St. Louis 21,325 21,325<br />
Triest 3,175 3,175<br />
Vlissingen 8,350 8,375 25<br />
NASAAC 107,740 107,740 80 80<br />
Ingots 54,820 54,860 40 80<br />
Baltimore 43,440 43,520 80<br />
Chicago 6,440 6,400 40<br />
Detroit 2,000 2,000<br />
Louisville 300 300<br />
Owensboro 1,500 1,500<br />
St. Louis 1,140 1,140<br />
Large Sows 7,420 7,420<br />
Baltimore 6,480 6,480<br />
Chicago 160 160<br />
Owensboro 780 780<br />
Store 21.02.08 20.02.08 Landing Delivery<br />
Small Sows 31,860 31820 40<br />
Chicago 18,860 18,820 40<br />
Detroit 11,360 11,360<br />
Louisville 440 440<br />
Owensboro 980 980<br />
St. Louis 220 220<br />
T-Bars 13,640 13,640<br />
Baltimore 3,620 3,620<br />
Detroit 7,860 7,860<br />
Owensboro 2,160 2,160<br />
Nickel 47,958 47,832 300 174<br />
Cathodes 150 150<br />
Baltimore 96 96<br />
Göteborg 54 54<br />
Full Plate 47,202 47,076 300 174<br />
Baltimore 1,236 1,236<br />
Chicago 486 486<br />
Göteborg 984 984<br />
Hamburg 1380 1,380<br />
Helsingborg 3,120 3,120<br />
Liverpool 3,516 3,564 48<br />
Pusan 84 96 12<br />
Rotterdam 33,282 33,096 300 114<br />
Singapore 84 84<br />
Tyne & Wear 2,694 2,694<br />
Vlissingen 336 336<br />
Briquettes 606 606<br />
Rotterdam 12 12<br />
Singapore 588 588<br />
St. Louis 6 6<br />
HG Tin 10,745 10,700 70 25<br />
Johor 3,700 3,655 70 25<br />
Kwangyang 1,125 1,125<br />
Pusan 170 170<br />
Singapore 5,750 5,750<br />
SHG Zinc 121,525 121,050 875 400<br />
Antwerp 500 500<br />
Bilbao 600 600<br />
Detroit 1,275 1,275<br />
Dubai 12,575 12,575<br />
Johor 19,400 19,650 250<br />
New Orleans 64,575 63,825 775 25<br />
Rotterdam 17,825 17,875 50<br />
Singapore 1,375 1,275 100<br />
Tyne & Wear 275 275<br />
Vlissingen 3,125 3,200 75<br />
Lead 44,875 45,825 150 1,100<br />
Antwerp 1,550 1,400 150<br />
Baltimore 275 275<br />
Bilbao 150 150
Editorial<br />
LME T���� S����<br />
change stocks<br />
Copper +6,225 141,600<br />
A Cathodes +6,225 141,600<br />
HG Tin +45 10,745<br />
Lead -950 44,875<br />
SHG-Zinc +475 121,525<br />
HG-Aluminium -1,475 951,250<br />
Ingots -800 317,650<br />
T-Bars -425 337,550<br />
Sows -250 296,050<br />
Aluminium Alloy -220 40,220<br />
Ingots A380.1 -200 22,560<br />
Ingots 226 -20 16,300<br />
Ingots D12S +126 47,958<br />
L.Sows 226 +126 47,202<br />
Nickel 107,740<br />
Cathodes -40 54,820<br />
Briquettes 7,420<br />
Full Plate +40 31,860<br />
NASAAC 13,640<br />
Ingots - 54,980<br />
Large Sows - 7,780<br />
Small Sows - 31,080<br />
T-Bars<br />
source: London Metall Exchange, 21.02.08, in t<br />
- 13,980<br />
F�����<br />
25.02.08 22.02.08<br />
Copper wire (EUR/t) 5,450.00 5,450.00<br />
I����<br />
22.02.08 21.02.08<br />
Copper, Kassa, to manufacturers<br />
of semifinished products (EUR/t)<br />
6,363.21 6,381.16<br />
Brass MS63 (EUR/t) 4,868.38 4,891.67<br />
T����<br />
wholesale price index (JPY/g) 22.02.08 21.02.08<br />
Platinum 99,9 % 7,485.00 7,504.00<br />
Silver 99,9 % 624.00 624.50-<br />
Gold 99,9 % 3,270.00 3,268.00<br />
K���� L�����<br />
Tin market 22.02.08 21.02.08<br />
Tin ex works, prompt (EUR/t) 17,450.00 17,000.00<br />
Turnover 79 80<br />
L����� M���� E�������<br />
22.02.08. 21.02.08<br />
High-grade Aluminium cash 2,865.50 2,865.00<br />
3 month 2,902.00 2,900.00<br />
15 month 2,937.00 2,938.00<br />
turnover in $, batches of 25 t 214,882.00<br />
Aluminium, Alloy cash 2,605.00 2,562.00<br />
3 month 2,640.00 2,615.00<br />
15 month 2735.00 2,720.00<br />
turnover in $, batches of 20 t 2,963.00<br />
Aluminium, NASAAC cash 2,585.00 2,610.00<br />
3 month 2,620.00 2,612.00<br />
15 month 2,720.00 2,720.00<br />
turnover in $, batches of 20 t 4,743.00<br />
Lead cash 3,284.00 3,315.00<br />
3 month 3,265.00 3,286.00<br />
15 month 3,118.00 3,155.00<br />
turnover in $, batches of 25 t 18,111.00<br />
Copper cash 8,322.00 8,281.00<br />
3 month 8,283.00 8,241.00<br />
15 month 7,830.00 7,815.00<br />
turnover in $, batches of 25 t 121,730.00<br />
Nickel cash 28,550.00 28,400.00<br />
3 month 28,800.00 28,625.00<br />
15 month 28,075.00 28125.00<br />
turnover in $, batches of of 6 t 21,136.00<br />
Zinc cash 2,451.00 2,470.50<br />
3 month 2,475.50 2,490.50<br />
15 month 2,423.00 2,442.00<br />
turnover in $, batches of 25 t 52,262.00<br />
Tin cash 17,335.00 17,450.00<br />
3 month 17,450.00 17,445.00<br />
15 month 17,365.00 17,355.00<br />
turnover in $, batches of 5 t 5,538.00<br />
USD/t - source: Dow Jones<br />
B��� M����� E�����<br />
Diff. in LME Cash Settlement Prices<br />
Bid/Ask<br />
22.02.08<br />
Aluminium Russia A7E Rotterdam 45/50<br />
Aluminium Russia A7 Rotterdam 43/48<br />
EC duty paid Premium 105/110<br />
EC duty unpaid Premium 45/50<br />
Copper, Grade A cif Rotterdam 60/80<br />
Copper, Stand. Grade cif Hamburg 35/40<br />
Copper, Grade A cif Hamburg 60/80<br />
Copper, Standard Rotterdam 35/40<br />
Copper, Grade A cif Italien 60/80<br />
Lead, CIS, duty paid Rotterdam 170/200<br />
Tin, China Rotterdam 270/320<br />
Tin, Malaysia Rotterdam 240/270<br />
Nickel, cathodes 4x4 Russia 350/550<br />
Nickel, uncut Russia 150/250<br />
Zinc, special high gr., duty paid<br />
USD/t<br />
Rotterdam 20/250<br />
L����� P������� M�����<br />
22.02.08. 21.02.08.<br />
Gold, official, 10.30 am ($/troy ounce) 945.75 943.00<br />
Gold, official, 15.00 pm ($/troy ounce) 943.00 945.00<br />
Silver, 12.30 pm, cash (p/troy ounce) 911.96 918.75<br />
Silver, 12.30 pm, cash (cts/troy ounce) 1,794.00 1,798.00<br />
Palladium, am (£/troy ounce) 256.30 259.40<br />
ditto ($/troy ounce) 504.00 507.00<br />
Palladium, offiz. pm ($/troy ounce) 506.00 519.00<br />
Platinum, am (£/troy ounce) 1,098.40 1,110.20<br />
ditto ($/troy ounce) 2,160.00 2,170.00<br />
Platinum, pm ($/troy ounce) 2,155.00 2,180.00<br />
Johnson Mat<strong>the</strong>y base price ($/troy ounce)<br />
Prices <strong>for</strong> unprocessed material f. Europe 22.02.08 21.02.08.<br />
Platinum 2,161.00 2,190.00<br />
Palladium 510.00 515.00<br />
Iridium 450.00 450.00<br />
Rhodium 9,080.00 9,080.00<br />
Ru<strong>the</strong>nium 420.00 420.00<br />
N�� Y��� C���� C�����<br />
22.02.08 change paid low high 21.02.08<br />
Feb. -2.35 378.70 378.70 378.70 381.05<br />
March -2.10 378.95 377.00 379.50 381.05<br />
April -1.95 379.75 379.75 379.75 381.70<br />
May -1.90 380.30 376.50 380.80 382.20<br />
June -1.70 379.80 379.80 379.80 381.50<br />
July -1.60 378.70 377.05 377.90 380.30<br />
Aug. -1.60 377.35 377.35 377.35 378.95<br />
Sep. -1.25 375.40 372.50 374.70 376.65<br />
N�� Y��� C���� G���<br />
22.02.08 change paid low high 21.02.08<br />
Feb. -1.40 944.70 944.70 944.70 946.10<br />
March -1.40 945.00 950.20 950.20 946.40<br />
April -1.40 947.80 939.00 952.50 949.20<br />
June -1.50 952.60 948.00 955.80 954.10<br />
Aug. -1.60 956.60 956.00 956.70 958.20<br />
Okt. -1.70 960.10 960.10 960.10 961.80<br />
Dec.<br />
USD/troy ounce<br />
-1.70 963.60 963.60 963.60 965.30<br />
N�� Y��� C���� S�����<br />
22.02.08 change paid low high 21.02.08<br />
Feb. +8.50 1802.50 1802.50 1802.50 1794.00<br />
March +8.50 1803.50 1777.00 1808.00 1795.00<br />
April +8.60 1809.00 1809.00 1809.00 1800.40<br />
May +8.80 1814.80 1791.00 1817.00 1806.00<br />
July +8.80 1823.10 1793.00 1821.00 1814.30<br />
Sept. +8.80 1830.10 1826.00 1826.00 1821.30<br />
Dec.<br />
cts/troy ounce<br />
+8.80 1839.90 1839.90 1839.90 1831.10<br />
25
Data | Market<br />
N�� Y��� N���� P�������<br />
22.02.08 change paid low high 21.02.08<br />
April -20.40 2,142.80 2,142.80 2,142.80 2,163.20<br />
Juli -20.40 2,142.80 2,142.80 2,142.80 2,163.20<br />
Oct.<br />
USD/troy ounce<br />
-7.00 2,168.00 2,131.10 2,214.50 2,175.00<br />
N�� Y��� N���� P��������<br />
22.02.08 change paid low high 21.02.08<br />
March +2.10 515.00 491.10 524.70 512.90<br />
Juni +5.45 520.00 494.90 528.85 514.55<br />
Sept.<br />
USD/troy ounce<br />
+0.80 523.05 508.50 518.70 522.25<br />
USA<br />
precious metals (troy ounce) 22.02.08. 21.02.08.<br />
Handy & Harman Silver (cts) 1,797.50 1,806.00<br />
Handy & Harman Gold ($) 943.00 945.00<br />
Engelhard Gold ($) 945.25 947.26<br />
Engelhard Gold. processed ($) 1,016.14 1,018.30<br />
Engelhard Silver (cts) 1,783.00 1,787.00<br />
Engelhard Silver. processed (cts) 2,139.60 2,144.40<br />
AMM Palladium trader ($) 494.20 499.30<br />
AMM Platinum producer ($) 2,095.00 2,148.00<br />
AMM Platinum trader ($) 2,138.80 2,153.10<br />
US Copper prices cts/lb 22.02.08. 21.02.08<br />
Wire waste Nr. 2. blank trader 364.00 338.50<br />
Wire waste Nr. 3, rolled 350.00 324.50<br />
AMM Prices 22.02.08. 21.02.08<br />
Aluminium. free market (cts/lb) 134.02 132.44<br />
Antimony 99.65% ($/t) 6,100.00 6,100.00<br />
Lead. free market (cts/lb) 386.55 376.05<br />
Copper-Cathodes. free market<br />
(cts/lb)<br />
156.29 149.72<br />
Magnesium 99.8%. fob Freeport<br />
(cts/lb)<br />
290.00 290.00<br />
Nickel-Cath. free market. Melting<br />
(cts/lb)<br />
1,336.85 1,303.97<br />
Nickel-Cath. free market. Plating<br />
(cts/lb)<br />
1,356.85 1,323.97<br />
Mercury free NY (cts/Fl) 500.00 500.00<br />
Titanium sponge 99.3% ($/lb) 15.50 15.50<br />
Zinc Special High Grade (cts/lb) 115.52 109.62<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r US Prices 22.02.08. 21.02.08<br />
Copper electrolyte produc. 381.05 370.55<br />
E���FX R�������� R����<br />
22.02.08. 21.02.08.<br />
USA USD 1.4834 1.4709<br />
Great Britain GBP 0.7540 0.7521<br />
Canada CAD 1.4968 1.4913<br />
Denmark DKK 7.4549 7.4541<br />
Japan JPY 158.7000 159.2300<br />
Norway NOK 7.8889 7.8626<br />
Sweden SEK 9.3057 9.3083<br />
Switzerland<br />
in Euro - source: Reuters<br />
CHF 1.6105 1.6223<br />
26<br />
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