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INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL<br />

OF SCIENTIFIC UNIONS<br />

GARP<br />

REPORT<br />

OF THE TWELFTH SESSION OF THE<br />

JOINT ORGANIZING COMMITTEE<br />

NAIROBI, 24-30 JUNE 1976<br />

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL<br />

ORGANiZATION


INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL OF<br />

SC IENT I FI C UN IONS<br />

REPORT OF THE TWELFTH SESSION<br />

OF THE<br />

JOINT ORGANIZING COMMITTEE -FOR GARP<br />

******<br />

Nairobi, 24-30 June 1976<br />

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL<br />

ORGANIZATION


8.<br />

ORGANIZATION OF FUTURE WORK<br />

- i i -<br />

8. I Estab Iishrnent <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> JOC Boards .<br />

8.2 Calendar <strong>of</strong> Future Meetings Related to GARP .<br />

8.3 GARPPublications .<br />

8.4 The Joint Planning Staff and <strong>the</strong> GARP Activities Office .<br />

8.5 The GARP Implementation Fund .<br />

8.6 Date and Place <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Next Session .<br />

A. LIST OF PARTICIPANTS<br />

B. AGENDA OF THE TWELFTH SESSION OF JOC<br />

C. REPORT OF THE CHAIRMAN<br />

D. REPORT OF THE JOC OFFICERS' MEETING<br />

ANNEXES<br />

E. REPORT OF THE TWELFTH SESSION OF THE WORKING GROUP ON NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTATION<br />

F. REPORT OF THE THIRTEENTH SESSION OF THE WORKING GROUP ON NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTATION<br />

G. REPORT OF THE JOC AD HOC WORKING GROUP ON THE GLOBAL DATA BASE FOR CLltvlATE RESEARCH<br />

H. EXTENDED CLOUDINESS AND RADIATION STUDY<br />

I. AEROSOL RESEARCH IN CONTEXT OF THE GARP CLI MATE DYNAMI CS SUB-PROGRAMME<br />

J. COMMENTS ON THE WEST AFRICAN MONSOON STUDY<br />

K. REPORT OF THE JOC PLANNING MEETING ON THE GARP POLAR SUB-PROGRAMME<br />

L. GARP IMPLEMENTATION FUND<br />

23<br />

23<br />

24<br />

27<br />

27<br />

28<br />

28


I. ORGAN IZATI ON OF THE SESS ION<br />

I . I Open i ng <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Sess ion<br />

The participants <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>twelfth</strong> <strong>session</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Joint Organizing Committee were<br />

welcomed by Mr. S. Tewungwa, <strong>the</strong> Director-General <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> East African Meteorological<br />

Department and Pr<strong>of</strong>essor D. Odhiambo, <strong>the</strong> Deputy Vice Chancellor <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> University <strong>of</strong><br />

Na i rob i .<br />

In his opening address Pr<strong>of</strong>. Odhiambo thanked <strong>the</strong> JOC for honouring <strong>the</strong> East<br />

African Community by holding <strong>the</strong> meeting in Nairobi and wished <strong>the</strong>m a successful meeting<br />

and a pleasant stay. He said that East Africa intends to participate in as many GARP<br />

experiments as possible and that <strong>the</strong> scientific staff <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> East African Meteorological<br />

Department were looking forward to a period <strong>of</strong> intensive research during <strong>the</strong> various subprogrammes<br />

<strong>of</strong> GARP.<br />

Dr. R.W. Stewart, Chairman <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> JOC,expressed gratitude to <strong>the</strong> hosts for <strong>the</strong><br />

invitation to hold <strong>the</strong> JOC-Xl I in Nairobi.<br />

Opening remarks were also made by <strong>the</strong> representatives <strong>of</strong> ICSU and WMO.<br />

The list <strong>of</strong> participants is given in Annex A*.<br />

1.2 Approval <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Agenda<br />

The final agenda <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>session</strong> is given in Annex B.<br />

1.3 Election <strong>of</strong> Officers<br />

In accordance Hith <strong>the</strong> approved rules <strong>of</strong> procedure <strong>the</strong> following Officers <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

JOC were elected:<br />

2.<br />

REPORT ON JOC ACTIVITIES<br />

Pr<strong>of</strong>. J. Smagorinsky<br />

Dr. G.B. Tucker<br />

Acad. E.K. Fedorov<br />

Pr<strong>of</strong>. K. Hasse Imann<br />

Chairman<br />

Vi ce Cha i rman<br />

Offi cer<br />

Officer<br />

Dr. Stewart <strong>report</strong>ed on th€ events since <strong>the</strong> eleventh <strong>session</strong> <strong>of</strong> JOC in October<br />

1975 (see <strong>the</strong> Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Chairman, given in Annex C and <strong>the</strong> Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> JOC Officers'<br />

meeting in February 1976, given in Annex DJ.<br />

* Due to <strong>the</strong> delay in issuing visas, members <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> JOC Acad. E.K. Fedorov, Acad. A.M.<br />

Oboukhov and invited expert, Pr<strong>of</strong>. M.A. Petrossiants, were unable to attend <strong>the</strong> morning<br />

<strong>session</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> fi rst day <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> JOC <strong>session</strong>. Acad. E.K. Fedorov. was also unable to<br />

participate at <strong>the</strong> JOC Officers' Meeting held on 23 June.


JOC-XI I Report, p. 3<br />

3.2 Re-evaluation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Functions <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Working Group on Numerical Experimentation<br />

The JOC approved <strong>the</strong> evaluation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> WGNE tunctions,based an consulfation<br />

with <strong>the</strong> JOC Officers (See Annex 0, Chapter 6) and described in <strong>the</strong> <strong>report</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> thirteenth<br />

<strong>session</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Group.<br />

The JOG agY'eed to <strong>the</strong> WGNE pY'oposal that:<br />

(a) merribeY'ship <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> WGNE should include scientists who, in addition to geneY'al knowledge<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> fiY'st and second GAHP objectives and numerical experiments Y'eZated<br />

<strong>the</strong>Y'eto, weY'e knowledgeable in Oceanic Modelling and TY'opical MeteoY'ology.<br />

(b) <strong>the</strong> total merribeY'ship <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> WGNE should be Urrrited to 8-9 peY'sons<br />

(a) expeY'ts knowledge ab le in <strong>the</strong> Y'espective GAHP sub-pY'ogY'ammes should be invited<br />

to paY'ticipate in <strong>the</strong> meetings as appY'opriate.<br />

In view <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> above, <strong>the</strong> JOG Y'equested <strong>the</strong> GhaiY'man <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> WGNE,in consultation<br />

with <strong>the</strong> DiY'ectoY' <strong>of</strong> JPS, to take <strong>the</strong> neaessary steps to add two merribeY's to <strong>the</strong> WGNE as soon<br />

as possible. The new merribeY's should Y'epY'esent ar>eas <strong>of</strong> Oceania Modelling and TY'opical<br />

MeteoY'ology.


JOC-XI I Report, p. 4<br />

4. THE GARP CLIMATE DYNAMICS SUB-PROGRAMME<br />

4. I Scope <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> GARP Cl imate Dynamics Sub-programme<br />

The JOC examined with care <strong>the</strong>impl icatlons for <strong>the</strong> GARP Cl imate Dynamics Subprogramme<br />

<strong>of</strong> Resolution 4.5/1 (EC-XXVI I I), with special attention to Annex 3, entitled<br />

"Integrated International Effort Related to Studies <strong>of</strong> Climatic Change". It was agreed<br />

that <strong>the</strong> decisi6ns regarding <strong>the</strong> objectives, <strong>the</strong> principal tasks and <strong>the</strong> planning and<br />

coordination <strong>of</strong> this effort were helpful.<br />

The following principal tasks are identified in <strong>the</strong> above mentioned Annex:<br />

(a) Improvement <strong>of</strong> our understanding <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> physical basis <strong>of</strong> cl imate with a view to<br />

developing <strong>the</strong> capabi lity to predict future trends in th.e probable range <strong>of</strong><br />

fluctuations and <strong>the</strong> occurrence <strong>of</strong> extremes.<br />

(b) Development <strong>of</strong> means <strong>of</strong> assessing and predicting <strong>the</strong> effects <strong>of</strong> human activities<br />

on climate.<br />

(c) Development <strong>of</strong> our knowledge <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> effects <strong>of</strong> cl imatie changes on human activities,<br />

particularly food producHon, I'/ith aviewto mitigating <strong>the</strong> undesirable<br />

effects.<br />

The responsibilities for <strong>the</strong> execution <strong>of</strong> principal task (a) was readily accepted<br />

by JOC and it was recognized that <strong>the</strong> responsibility for principal task (c) belonged to<br />

o<strong>the</strong>r bodies. As regards principal task (b), JOC considered <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong> mos t suitable means<br />

or scientific bases would be <strong>the</strong> models being developed within GARP. In its present<br />

formulation, principal task (b) was <strong>the</strong>refore felt to be partly within <strong>the</strong> responsibilities<br />

<strong>of</strong> JOC, whereas <strong>the</strong> Executive Committee had assigned it solely to CAS.<br />

The representative <strong>of</strong> JOC on <strong>the</strong> EC Panel <strong>of</strong> Experts on Cl imatic Change was<br />

requested to inform <strong>the</strong> Panel <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> interest <strong>of</strong> JOC in principal task (b). He should<br />

suggest to <strong>the</strong> Panel ei<strong>the</strong>r that JOC be assigned <strong>the</strong> same responsibi Iity for this as for<br />

principal jask (a) or that <strong>the</strong> formulation <strong>of</strong> principal task (b) be revised to read<br />

"Assessment and prediction <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> effects <strong>of</strong> human activities on cl imate".<br />

In addition to <strong>the</strong> practical benefits <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> GARP Climate Dynamics Sub-programme,<br />

it should be emphasized that proper understanding <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Cl imate System is a prerequisite<br />

for studies <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> global and regional ecology <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> earth. It was recognized that ICSU,<br />

particularly through its Scientific Committee on Problems <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Environment (SCOPE), tries<br />

to promote intensified research In this field, and obviously It 15 desIrable that best<br />

possible Iiaison is maintained between <strong>the</strong>se programme and GARP activities related to<br />

cl imatic problems. Proper understanding <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se problems is in turn <strong>the</strong> fundamental basis<br />

for assessing man's possible influence on climate and <strong>the</strong> impact <strong>of</strong> cl imate changes on man.<br />

Also in this sense <strong>the</strong> GARP Cl imate Dynamics Sub-programme wi I I hopefully provide important<br />

information for <strong>the</strong> handl ing <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se problems and thus be <strong>of</strong> direct use for UNEP in fulfi<br />

I ling its task for internationally coordinating activities in this field.<br />

4.2<br />

4.2. I<br />

Overai I Programme Planning<br />

The JOC considered a paper on <strong>the</strong> subject submitted by a JPS consultant, Dr. G.<br />

Paltridge, containing among o<strong>the</strong>r things one view <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> scientific basis and rationale for<br />

<strong>the</strong> GARP Cl imate Dynamics Sub-programme (see also Section 4.6).


JOC-XI I Report, p. 8<br />

The Committee fur><strong>the</strong>r> suggested that <strong>the</strong> WGDC consider> <strong>the</strong> possibility <strong>of</strong> a special<br />

meeting <strong>of</strong> exper>ts in 1977 to finalise r>equests for> specific satellite har>iMar>e for> monitoPing<br />

<strong>the</strong> vaY'iab les mentioned above.<br />

4.5 Parameterization Procedures <strong>of</strong> Physical/Chemical Processes to be Included in<br />

Cl i mate Mode Is<br />

At its last two meetings, <strong>the</strong> JOC has given priority to <strong>the</strong> study <strong>of</strong> a series <strong>of</strong><br />

specific physical/chemical processes that are <strong>of</strong> fundamental importance in <strong>the</strong>- development<br />

<strong>of</strong> climate models. Those chosen are particularly relevant for <strong>the</strong> climate models, but it<br />

should be emphasized that most parameterizing procedures being developed for short and<br />

extended range wea<strong>the</strong>r forecasting are also <strong>of</strong> importance in this context. It should be<br />

emphasized particularly, however, that <strong>the</strong> extended integrMions in time which are required<br />

for cl imate studies may imply particular requirements.<br />

4.5. t<br />

On <strong>the</strong> basis <strong>of</strong> previous discussions <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Committee (see Report <strong>of</strong> JOC-XI,<br />

Section 4.3 and Annex G) <strong>the</strong> JOC cons i dered <strong>the</strong> actions necessary to imp lement <strong>the</strong> three<br />

tasks suggested in Para. 4.3.3 <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> JOC-XI Report,. namely:<br />

Task Detailed observation <strong>of</strong> characteristic clouds in selected areas<br />

Task II Assembly <strong>of</strong> global data sets <strong>of</strong> three-dimensional cloudiness<br />

Task I I I Global energy budget at wel I defined interface.<br />

Among o<strong>the</strong>r> things 3 <strong>the</strong> JOC for>matly identified <strong>the</strong> fir>st two tasks as an integr>al<br />

unit to be called STRATEX. It is clear that <strong>the</strong> detai led planning <strong>of</strong> STRATEX must now be<br />

carried out by those scientists who intend to become directly involved in <strong>the</strong> experiments.<br />

In <strong>the</strong> light <strong>of</strong> this, <strong>the</strong> JOC requested <strong>the</strong> cooperation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> IAMAP Radiation Commission<br />

and Commission on Cloud Physics to engage those who are interested in conducting experiments<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> kind proposed (Task I and Task 11) to cooperate in <strong>the</strong> planning and implementation<br />

<strong>of</strong> a series <strong>of</strong> such experiments.<br />

It is suggested that a special ad hoc group under <strong>the</strong> chairmanship <strong>of</strong> Pr<strong>of</strong>essor<br />

J. London be established to examine <strong>the</strong> logistic possibilities, and to solicit appropriate<br />

support.<br />

The Committee fur><strong>the</strong>r> invited <strong>the</strong> views <strong>of</strong> COSPAR Wor>king Gr>oup 6 on <strong>the</strong><br />

implementation <strong>of</strong> Task III.<br />

4.5.2 Aerosol Processes<br />

The JOC noted that <strong>the</strong> ad hoc group established by JOC at its Eleventh Session<br />

wi I I meet at <strong>the</strong> time <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Meeting <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> IAMAP Radiation Commission (August 1976). The<br />

components <strong>of</strong> a programme for advancing our knowledge <strong>of</strong> Atmospheric Aerosol Dynamics as<br />

expressed by JOC (see Report <strong>of</strong> JOC-XI, para. 4.1.5.2) remain unchanged (see Annex I).<br />

4.5.3<br />

4.5.3.1 Carbon Di oxi de<br />

The' precise role <strong>of</strong> land plants and oceans for changes <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> carbon dioxide con-tent<br />

is sti I I unclear. Particular attention should be paid to:


JOC-XI I Report, p. 9<br />

(i) <strong>the</strong> role <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> ocean sediments in <strong>the</strong> regulation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> calcium and carbonate<br />

content <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> oceans<br />

(ii) <strong>the</strong> possible and I ikely impact on <strong>the</strong> carbon dioxide content <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> atmosphere <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> accelerating changes in <strong>the</strong> distribution <strong>of</strong> world forests and in general<br />

changing land use.<br />

The JOC noted <strong>the</strong> priority given by <strong>the</strong> XXVI 11th Session <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> WMO Executive<br />

Committee to this problem area, <strong>the</strong> interest shown by SCOPE and also <strong>the</strong> interest <strong>of</strong> UNEP<br />

to support an intensified activity in this field. The JOC was <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> opinion that a Study<br />

Conference on <strong>the</strong> Carbon Cycle should be arl'anged as a cooperative effort <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> bodies<br />

mentioned.<br />

4.5.3.2 Ozone<br />

The JOC noted that very active research is going on in this field and considered<br />

that no action on its part is necessary. The Committee awaits a <strong>report</strong> from <strong>the</strong> Ozone<br />

Commission in due course.<br />

4.5.4<br />

The study <strong>of</strong> sea-ice dynamics is one <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> central topics dealt with in <strong>the</strong><br />

Polar Sub-programme. Plans now under development are discussed in <strong>the</strong> <strong>report</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

Toronto Planning Meeting <strong>of</strong> that sub-programme(Annex K). The JOC asked Pr<strong>of</strong>essor D.J.<br />

Baker to extract fY'om <strong>the</strong> <strong>report</strong>, and produce a document on those aspects <strong>of</strong> direct relevance<br />

to <strong>the</strong> GARP Climate Dynamics Sub-programme concern with sea-ice dynamics.<br />

4.5.5<br />

The JOC requested <strong>the</strong> Director <strong>of</strong> JPS to engage a consultant (or take o<strong>the</strong>r<br />

appropriate steps) to advance a programme on <strong>the</strong> hydrological cycle (see Report <strong>of</strong> JOC-XI,<br />

para. 4.1.5.4).<br />

4.6 Immediate Action on Overal I Planning<br />

The Committee recommended:<br />

(i) that a small nurriber <strong>of</strong> individual experts be asked to prepare scientific bases<br />

for <strong>the</strong> development <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> GARP Climate Dynamics Sub-programme.<br />

(ii) that <strong>the</strong>se scientific bases be available as input to a meeting <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> JOC Board<br />

on Climate Dynamics Sub-programme to be held not later than December 19 76.<br />

(iii) that in <strong>the</strong> light <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> input mentioned in (ii) this meeting be charged with<br />

producing an authoritative preliminary scientific plan for <strong>the</strong> GARP Climate<br />

DynaJTrics Sub-programme for consideration by <strong>the</strong> JOC in Apri l 1977 and for<br />

submission to <strong>the</strong> WMO Executive Committee in May 1977.<br />

(iv) that <strong>the</strong> individual scientific bases mentioned above in (i) and (ii) be published<br />

as soon as available as <strong>the</strong> initial <strong>report</strong>s <strong>of</strong> a new GARP publications series<br />

devoted to <strong>the</strong> Climate Sub-programme.


· JOC-XII Report, p ,11<br />

At present, a precise estimate <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> effect <strong>of</strong> various levels <strong>of</strong> resources is not<br />

possible. Even so, a tentative indication <strong>of</strong> what might be achieved with limited resources<br />

is given below, although <strong>the</strong>re is some difference <strong>of</strong> opinion within JOC on whe<strong>the</strong>r it is<br />

appropriate to make such estimates at this time, or postpone <strong>the</strong> decision until more precise<br />

information on resources for <strong>the</strong> FGGE wi I I be avai lable.<br />

Consider first <strong>the</strong> combination <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> sou<strong>the</strong>rn hemisphere mid-latitude constant<br />

level balloon system and <strong>the</strong> drifting bUoy system beneath it which were designed to provide<br />

a composite <strong>of</strong> two hydrostatic reference levels for remote sounding temperature inversions<br />

in <strong>the</strong> eye Ion i ca II y acti ve mi d-I ati tudes over <strong>the</strong> vast sou<strong>the</strong>rn hemi sphere ocean expanses<br />

which are very cloudy. Toge<strong>the</strong>r, <strong>the</strong>se provide two possible reference levels, also <strong>the</strong>y<br />

can be used to provi de an independent measure <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> mean tropospheri c temperature, a<br />

quantity poorly but never<strong>the</strong>less independently measured by <strong>the</strong> remote sounding techniques.<br />

This design is fundamental to <strong>the</strong> concept <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> FGGE 'and a shortfall in ei<strong>the</strong>r <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se<br />

special observing systems would reduce <strong>the</strong> value <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> experiment significantly and would<br />

imply that <strong>the</strong> objectives <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> FGGE as planned will not be met.<br />

If <strong>the</strong> constant level balloons were not avai lable, <strong>the</strong> dual determination <strong>of</strong> reference<br />

level and mean temperature would be lost. The mass distribution would-beiess accurate,<br />

but not necessarily underdetermined. Fur<strong>the</strong>rmore, an independent flight level temperature<br />

and wind determination would also be lost. However, provided <strong>the</strong> buoy system retained its<br />

design integrity and was supplemented in o<strong>the</strong>r ways, one might expect only a modest loss <strong>of</strong><br />

predietabi I ity in <strong>the</strong> sou<strong>the</strong>rn hemisphere in both short and longer time ranges. On <strong>the</strong><br />

o<strong>the</strong>r hand, <strong>the</strong> main impact in <strong>the</strong> nor<strong>the</strong>nn hemisphere might be in <strong>the</strong> longer time range,<br />

beyond a week or ten days. The supplementary effort referred to above would involve a<br />

major effort-to obtain middle latitude cloud dispacement winds from <strong>the</strong> geostationarY satellites<br />

and, equally Important, appl icatlon <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> techniques currently being developed to<br />

make maximum use <strong>of</strong> information inherent in cloud patterns obtained from orbitingsatel lite<br />

mosai cs <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> sou<strong>the</strong>rn hemi sphere.<br />

Clearly if ei<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong> constant level balloon system or <strong>the</strong> drifting buoy system<br />

is not implemented to near <strong>the</strong> stated level <strong>of</strong> requirement3 <strong>the</strong> Experiment is no longer <strong>the</strong><br />

Global Experiment as defined in GAHP Publications Series No. 11: "The First GARP Global<br />

Experiment - Objectives and Plans" and <strong>the</strong> Reports <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> JOC Sessions.<br />

In <strong>the</strong> absence <strong>of</strong> both <strong>the</strong> constant level balloon and drifting buoy systems3 no<br />

experiment conducted could reasonably be defined a a meaningful Global Exper-l-ment.<br />

With regard to <strong>the</strong> geostationary satell ite system, obviously a failure <strong>of</strong> one <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> satel I ites would Imply a major gap in <strong>the</strong> observing system In <strong>the</strong> tropics and mid-<br />

I at I tudes unless a major re-Iocati on <strong>of</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r sate I lites were made. I t must a I so be recognized<br />

that merely four geostationary satellites, even if optimally located, would result in<br />

loss <strong>of</strong> wind data in mid-latitudes which would be particularly serious in -<strong>the</strong> sou<strong>the</strong>rn hemisphere<br />

In <strong>the</strong> absence <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> constant level bal loons.<br />

Therefore arrangements need to be made 3 as a matter or urgenCY3 to launch a<br />

replacement.<br />

Equa I Iy, sh I ps in <strong>the</strong> equator! a I zone, upper-a I r' stations <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> WWW system<br />

scheduled for <strong>the</strong> FGGE and <strong>the</strong> complete network <strong>of</strong> Omega stations are vital requirements<br />

for this international experiment. The JOC recognized that much more developed con-tingency<br />

plans are needed.<br />

It should be noted fur<strong>the</strong>r that <strong>the</strong> ARGOS location and data collection system on<br />

board one or more <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> polar orbiting satel lites is absolutely vital to <strong>the</strong> FGGE.


JOG-XII Report, p.13<br />

The Committee agroeed that mechanisms should exist that would ensuroe that decisions<br />

could be taken on a wide spectroum <strong>of</strong> proob lems on time scales froom one day to severoal manths.<br />

Short-term decisions on day-to-day operations are not a matter for <strong>the</strong> central<br />

management; ra<strong>the</strong>r, <strong>the</strong>y should be taken by <strong>the</strong> individual systems operators. Long-term<br />

decisions are <strong>the</strong> concern <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Inter-governmental Panel on <strong>the</strong> FGGE with scientific<br />

advice for <strong>the</strong> JOG and its Board on <strong>the</strong> FGGE. However, a mechanism needs to be formulated<br />

to cater for decision-making on intermediate time-scales ranging from days to a few months.<br />

A certain flexibi lity is needed for <strong>the</strong> operation <strong>of</strong> some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> observing systems;<br />

this should provide opportunities for adjustments and corrective actions if data gaps<br />

develop due to unexpected performances <strong>of</strong> parts <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> composite observing system.<br />

In view <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> above factoros, <strong>the</strong> JOC agroeed on <strong>the</strong> need foro a monitoring and<br />

management system foro <strong>the</strong> direction <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Global Experiment in order to optimize <strong>the</strong><br />

efficiency <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> FGGE composite global observing system. The Committee agreed that <strong>the</strong><br />

design and operation <strong>of</strong> a monitoring and management system should take into account:<br />

(i) The need to maintain <strong>the</strong> functioning <strong>of</strong> individual components <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> FGGE<br />

observing system<br />

(ii) The need for essentially "corrective actions" based on <strong>the</strong> performance <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong>se components. Excluded aroe short-term technical corrections to be<br />

handled locally, and long-term decisions which are <strong>the</strong> responsibility <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> Inter-governmental Panel on <strong>the</strong> FGGE and <strong>the</strong> JOC<br />

(iii) The nianagement system should be operoated as an activity <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> GAO. The staff<br />

should include a small group <strong>of</strong> about three scientists familiar with -<strong>the</strong> scientific<br />

objectives <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> FGGE and <strong>the</strong> related regional experiments (MONEX, WAMEX<br />

and POLEX)<br />

(iv) The JPS/GAO should be requested to identify tasks and responsibilities <strong>of</strong> such<br />

a group.<br />

5.6 The Tropical Wind Observing Ships (TWOS)<br />

The plan for FGGE includes a system <strong>of</strong> about 50 ships for providing meteorological<br />

soundings in <strong>the</strong> tropics. It should be emphasized that <strong>the</strong>se ships need not occupy a<br />

stationary position throughout <strong>the</strong> Special Observing Periods, but a clear plan for <strong>the</strong>i r<br />

contribution to <strong>the</strong> FGGE is essential in order -ro assess whe<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong> observational requirements<br />

as laid down by JOG wi II be satisfied or not.<br />

The ships to be provided for this purpose wi I I be <strong>of</strong> two kinds:<br />

(i) ships primarily devoted to <strong>the</strong> FGGE<br />

(ii) ships having primari Iy oceanographic research objectives, but wi II ing to contribute<br />

to <strong>the</strong> Tropical Wind Observing System.<br />

The JOG noted that about 25 ships have been preliminari Iy promised by nations and<br />

that those essentially are <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> first kind. In order to reach <strong>the</strong> target <strong>of</strong> about 50<br />

ships for <strong>the</strong> TWOS, <strong>the</strong> JOG considered it most important that as many ships as possible<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> second kind wi I I make wind soundings.


JOG-XII Report, p. 19<br />

It was recognized that <strong>the</strong> oceanographic programme <strong>of</strong> WAMEX was largely concerned<br />

with coastal upwel I ing. It is possible to study coastal effects by using small vessels. The<br />

use <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se vessels could make a valuable contribution to WAMEX if such vessels could be<br />

made avai lable without withdrawal <strong>of</strong> resources from o<strong>the</strong>r parts <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Global Experiment.<br />

The Committee recommended that a Regional Planning Meeting <strong>of</strong> expected participants<br />

in WAMEX be he ld to determine and identify <strong>the</strong> resources that are UkeZy to be needed for<br />

conducting <strong>the</strong> experiment. The Planning Meeting could also set up appropriate mechanisTr{s<br />

for implementing <strong>the</strong> field phase <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> experiment.<br />

6.2.5<br />

The JOG recommended that a scientific <strong>of</strong>ficer may be seconded by <strong>the</strong> participating<br />

countries to <strong>the</strong> GAO/JPS for <strong>the</strong> planning and implementation <strong>of</strong> WAMEX. The JOG also decided<br />

to recommend an extension <strong>of</strong> Dr. Dhonneur's consultancy services to enable him to present a<br />

revised version <strong>of</strong> his <strong>report</strong> at <strong>the</strong> next JOG Officers' Meeting. The revised <strong>report</strong> could<br />

contain <strong>the</strong> comments received from Permanent Representatives <strong>of</strong> countries in Western and<br />

Gentral Africa by way <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir response to WAMEX.<br />

6.2.6<br />

According to a recommendation made at <strong>the</strong> JOG Officers' Meeting in Geneva in<br />

February 1976, it is desirable that <strong>the</strong> overall management system <strong>of</strong> MONEX and WAMEX be<br />

establ ished. The JOG suggested that this system be based on <strong>the</strong> distribution <strong>of</strong> responsibi­<br />

Iity for <strong>the</strong> detal led scientific design and <strong>the</strong> development <strong>of</strong> regional operational plans<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> observing, telecommunication and data processing systems among <strong>the</strong> planning centres<br />

and <strong>the</strong> GARP Acti vitie? Offi ce (GAO).<br />

The following division <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> planning work is suggested:<br />

(a) The GAO wi I I be responsi b IEl for <strong>the</strong> pIann i n9 <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Iarge-sea Ie aspects <strong>of</strong> MONEX<br />

and WAMEX, and <strong>the</strong> overall coordination <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> regional programmes, both amongst<br />

each o<strong>the</strong>r and with FGGE<br />

(b) Three planning centres (for MONEX Summer and \-/inter, and WAMEX) wi 11 deal with <strong>the</strong><br />

planning <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> various (regional ) component programmes.<br />

The JOG agreed to estcibl ish a Board for <strong>the</strong> fur<strong>the</strong>r development <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Monsoon<br />

SUb-programme. The membership <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Board is given in para. 8.1.<br />

6.3<br />

6.3.1<br />

The Polar SUb-programme<br />

The JOG took note <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> conclusions reached at <strong>the</strong> Planning Meeting on <strong>the</strong> GARP<br />

Polar Sub-programme (Toronto, 17-21 May; see <strong>report</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> meeting in Annex K). It also<br />

noted with appreciation <strong>the</strong> efforts <strong>of</strong> its consultant, Pr<strong>of</strong>. D.J. Baker, Jr., both in preparations<br />

for this meeting and subsequent to it.<br />

6.3.2 Resulting from discussions on this topic, <strong>the</strong> JOG reached <strong>the</strong> following conclusions:


11-15 October<br />

18-23 October<br />

1-12 November<br />

November<br />

15- 19 November<br />

29 Novembe r ­<br />

I December<br />

29 Novembe r ­<br />

3 December<br />

6-1 0 December<br />

9-10 December<br />

13-17 December<br />

1977<br />

12-14 January<br />

14-18 February<br />

Fi rst quarte r<br />

First quarter<br />

February<br />

28 February­<br />

4 March<br />

7-12 March<br />

March<br />

Fi rst quarter<br />

Geneva, Switzerland<br />

Mendoza, Argentina<br />

Geneva, Switzerland<br />

Leni ngrad, USSR<br />

Leningrad, USSR<br />

Boulder, Colorado, USA<br />

to be decl dad<br />

Stockholm, Sweden<br />

Brackne 11, UK<br />

Brackne I I, UK<br />

Geneva, Switzerland<br />

Geneva, Switzerland<br />

to be deci ded<br />

to be decided<br />

Miami, USA<br />

New Delhi, India<br />

New De Ihi, Ind i a<br />

to be decided<br />

Seattle, USA<br />

JOC-XI I Report, p. 25<br />

Meeting <strong>of</strong> Experts Seconded to <strong>the</strong> GAO for<br />

Preparation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Final Version <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> FGGE<br />

Data Management Plan<br />

Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research<br />

WMO Commission on Basic Systems, Extraordinary<br />

Session<br />

Workshop on GATE Oceanography<br />

Planning Meeting on Tropical Wind Observing<br />

Ship AI locations and Uti I ization in <strong>the</strong><br />

Sou<strong>the</strong>rn Hemisphere during <strong>the</strong> FGGE<br />

Meeting <strong>of</strong> Experts for Activation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> GARP<br />

Extended Cloudiness and Radiation Study<br />

First Planning Meeting for WAMEX<br />

Meeting <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> JOC Board for Climate Studies<br />

Meeting <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Board <strong>of</strong> Review for Level I I I-b<br />

Data<br />

Informal Meeting <strong>of</strong> Experts on <strong>the</strong> FGGE Data<br />

Management<br />

Meeting <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> JOC Board on <strong>the</strong> FGGE<br />

Inter-governmental Panel on <strong>the</strong> FGGE, Fourth<br />

Session<br />

Informal Meeting on GATE Data Processing<br />

Informal PI ann ing Meeti ng on <strong>the</strong> Organ i zati on<br />

<strong>of</strong> Observing Systems Tests<br />

Workshop on GATE Oceanography<br />

Third Planning Meeting for <strong>the</strong> Mbnsoon<br />

Experiment (MONEX)<br />

J 0 i nt IfvIS-AMS Sympos i urn on <strong>the</strong> Mbnsoon<br />

Second Planning Meeting for WAMEX<br />

Meeting <strong>of</strong> Experts on Sea Ice Dynamics


JOC-XI I Report, p. 26<br />

13 Apri I<br />

14-20 April<br />

25-31 May<br />

1-3 June<br />

(tentati ve )<br />

Second quarter<br />

Second qua rte r<br />

Second quarter<br />

Second quarter<br />

Second quarter<br />

Second quarter<br />

September<br />

September­<br />

October<br />

Third quarter<br />

Third quarter.<br />

Th i rd quarter<br />

Third quarter<br />

Third quarter<br />

Stockholm, Sweden<br />

(p roposed)<br />

Stockholm, Sweden<br />

(proposed)<br />

Helsinki, Finland<br />

Helsinki, Finland<br />

Washington D.C.<br />

to be deci ded<br />

Stockholm, Sweden<br />

(tentative)<br />

Geneva, Switzerland<br />

to be deci ded<br />

Geneva, Switzerland<br />

Tashkent, USSR<br />

Geneva, Switzerland<br />

Geneva, Switzerland<br />

to be decided<br />

to be deci ded<br />

to be dec ided<br />

to be dec i ded<br />

JOC Officers 1 Meeti ng<br />

Joint Organizing Committee, Thirteenth Session<br />

Joint JOC/SCOR Study Conference on General<br />

Circulation Models <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Ocean and <strong>the</strong>ir<br />

Relation to Climate<br />

Working Group on Numerical Experimentation,<br />

Fifteenth Session<br />

Ad-hoc Working Group on Specification <strong>of</strong><br />

Satel Iite Observations for <strong>the</strong> Cl imate Decade<br />

Workshop on Sea Surface Temperature and<br />

Oceanography (GATE)<br />

Meeting <strong>of</strong> Experts on Telecommunication and<br />

Data Processing Systems for <strong>the</strong> FGGE<br />

Informal Meeting on <strong>the</strong> Reserve, Contingency<br />

and Emergency Planning<br />

Informal Meeting on GATE Data Processing<br />

Informal Meeting on <strong>the</strong> Management <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

Global Experiment<br />

Conference on Energetics <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Tropical<br />

Atmosphere<br />

Inter-governmental Panel on <strong>the</strong> FGGE, Fifth<br />

Session<br />

Informal Planning Meeting on <strong>the</strong> Composite<br />

Observing System in <strong>the</strong> Equatorial Tropics<br />

Meeting for Coordination <strong>of</strong> MONEX Activities<br />

Study Conference on <strong>the</strong> GARP Polar Sub-programme<br />

Workshop on Atmospheric BUdgets (GATE)<br />

Informal Meeting on GATE Data Processing


8.3 GARP Publ ications<br />

JOC-XI I Report, p. 27<br />

8.3. I The following <strong>report</strong>s have been publ ished since <strong>the</strong> Eleventh Session <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> JOC:<br />

GSR No. 17 Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Second Session <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> WMO Executive Committee Inter-governmental<br />

Panel on <strong>the</strong> First GARP Global ExperIment - Geneva, September 1976<br />

GSR NQ. 18<br />

GSR No. 19<br />

WGNE Report<br />

No. II<br />

WGNE Report<br />

No. 12<br />

Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Inter-governmental Planning Meeting for <strong>the</strong> First GARP<br />

Global Experiment - Geneva, February 1976<br />

Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Extraordinary Session <strong>of</strong> WMO Executive Committee<br />

Inter-governmental Panel on <strong>the</strong> First GARP Global Experiment ­<br />

Geneva, February 1976<br />

Proceedings <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> JOC Study Group Conference on Four-dimensional<br />

Data Assimi lation - Paris, November 1975<br />

Research Activities in Atmospheric and Oceanic Model ling - Apri I 1976<br />

8.3.2 The following <strong>report</strong>s are planned to be publ ished in <strong>the</strong> GARP Publ ications Series:<br />

(i) Numerical Methods used in Atmospheric Models (Volumes I and J I)<br />

(i i) Parameterization <strong>of</strong> Physical Processes in General Circulation Models<br />

(i i i) The Monsoon Experiment<br />

(i v) The Po Iar Experi ment<br />

(v) Air-flow over and around Mountains<br />

(vi) AMTEX Scientific Results<br />

8.4 The Joint Planning Staff and <strong>the</strong> GARP Activities Office<br />

8.4.1 The present status <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Joint Planning Staff and <strong>the</strong> GARP Activities Office<br />

is given be low:<br />

Pr<strong>of</strong>essional Staff and Consultants:<br />

B.R. Doos<br />

V. Bol di rev<br />

G. Paltridge<br />

J. Perry<br />

T. Nitta<br />

M. Rubin<br />

D. Rodenhu is<br />

E. Jati Ia<br />

J. Kuettner<br />

Director JPS/GAO<br />

Scientific Officer JPS<br />

Consultant JPS<br />

Consultant JPS<br />

Scientific Officer GAO<br />

Scientific Officer GAG<br />

Scientific Officer GAG<br />

Consultant GAO<br />

Advi ser to Secretary-Genera I <strong>of</strong> WMO GAO


JOC-X I I Report, p. 28<br />

Secretarial Staff<br />

Mrs. M. Stanojevic<br />

Mi ss A-H. Johnsen<br />

Mrs. P. Ni cho I Is<br />

Administrative Assistant<br />

Clerk-Typist<br />

Senior Secretary<br />

JPS/GAO<br />

8.4.2 Since <strong>the</strong> last JOC <strong>session</strong>, <strong>the</strong> following consultants have been actively engaged<br />

in various planning activities.<br />

Mr. E. Tiernan (USA)<br />

Dr. L. Moen (Sweden)<br />

Dr. N. Gustafsson (Sweden)<br />

Mr. T. Kaneshige (USA)<br />

Dr. I. Gal indo (Mexico)<br />

Dr. H. Kraus- (FRG)<br />

Dr. I. Sitnikov(USSR)<br />

Mr. K. Pechmann (USA)<br />

Dr. G. Dhonneur (France)<br />

Dr. R. Keshavamurty (India)<br />

Pr<strong>of</strong>. T.N. Krishnamurti (USA)<br />

Pr<strong>of</strong>. T. Murakami (USA)<br />

Pr<strong>of</strong>. D.J. Baker, Jr. (USA)<br />

Pr<strong>of</strong>. F. Mesinger (Yugoslavia)<br />

Dr. M. Cullen (UK)<br />

8.5 The GARP Imp lementati on Fund<br />

FGGE<br />

FGGE Data Management<br />

FGGE Data Management<br />

FGGE Data Management<br />

Tropical Sub-programme<br />

Tropical Sub-programme<br />

Tropical Sub-programme<br />

Tropical Sub-programme<br />

Monsoon Sub-programme<br />

Monsoon Sub-programme<br />

Monsoon Sub-programme<br />

Monsoon Sub-programme<br />

Polar Sub-programme<br />

JPS<br />

GAO<br />

Numerical Experimentation SUb-programme<br />

Numerical Experimentation SUb-programme<br />

In <strong>the</strong> document (see Annex L) by <strong>the</strong> Secretary-General <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> WMO, a budget <strong>of</strong><br />

$ 168.800 was proposed for <strong>the</strong> year 1977 on <strong>the</strong> assumption that WMO and ICSU would contribute<br />

equal amounts into <strong>the</strong> GARP Implementation Fund.<br />

The Committee endorsed <strong>the</strong> proposed budget.<br />

8.6 Data and Place <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Next Session<br />

The Committee tentatively agreed to <strong>the</strong> suggestion that <strong>the</strong> next <strong>session</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

JOC would take place in Apri I-May 1977.<br />

The Committee took note <strong>of</strong> a possibi I ity to organize its next <strong>session</strong> in<br />

Stockholm, Sweden.<br />

The Committee also agreed that two meetings <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> JOC Officers be held:<br />

6-7 September 1976, Moscow and in April 1977, prior to <strong>the</strong> next JOC <strong>session</strong>.


I. The followi ng Members were present:<br />

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS<br />

B. Bol in<br />

P.K. Das<br />

E.K. Fedorov (Officer)<br />

K. Gambo<br />

K. Hasselmann (Officer)<br />

J . T. Houghton<br />

C. Lei th<br />

A.M. Oboukhov<br />

J. Smagorinsky (Chairman)<br />

R.W. Stewart<br />

G.B. Tucker (Vice-Chairman)<br />

Pr<strong>of</strong>. P. More I was unable to attend <strong>the</strong> <strong>session</strong>.<br />

I I. The following Observers attended <strong>the</strong> <strong>session</strong><br />

From ICSU<br />

From UNEP<br />

From WMO<br />

Inv i ted exp erts :<br />

J. Woods<br />

G. Rao<br />

O. M. Ash ford<br />

W.L Godson<br />

N. Kljukin<br />

0.0. Adefol al u<br />

S. Mbele-Mbong<br />

G. Paltridge<br />

M.A. Petrossiants<br />

A. Wiin-Nielsen<br />

JOC-XI I Report, ANNEX A<br />

The JOC/ICSU liaison <strong>of</strong>ficer, Pr<strong>of</strong>. T.F. Malone,was unable to attend.<br />

I I I. Pr<strong>of</strong>. B.R. Doos, Director <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Joint Planning Staff (JPS) acted as secretary<br />

for <strong>the</strong> <strong>session</strong>; Dr. V. Boldirev served as <strong>joint</strong> secretary.


INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL OF<br />

SCIENTIFIC UNIONS<br />

TWELFTH SESS ION<br />

NAIROBI, JUNE 1976<br />

I. ORGANIZATION OF THE SESSION<br />

1.1 Opening <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>session</strong><br />

1.2 Approval <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> agenda<br />

JOINT GARP ORGANIZING COMMITTEE<br />

AGENDA<br />

1.3 Election <strong>of</strong> Chairman, Vice-chairman and Officers<br />

2. REPORTS ON JOC ACT! VIT IES<br />

2. I Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Chairman<br />

2.2 Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> JOC Officers' Meeting<br />

3. THE NUMERICAL EXPERIMttNTATION PROGRAMME<br />

3.1 Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Working Group on Numerical Experimentation<br />

3.2 Re-evaluation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> functions <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Working Group on<br />

Numerical Experimentation<br />

4. THE CLIMATE DYNAMICS SUB-PROGRAMME<br />

4. I Present status<br />

4.2 Overall strategy for future work<br />

4.3 Plan <strong>of</strong> action<br />

5. THE GLOBAL EXPERIMENT<br />

5. I Review <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> planning<br />

5.2 Contingency planning<br />

5.3 The Board <strong>of</strong> Review for Level I I I-b Data<br />

5.4 Research aspects <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> FGGE<br />

5.5 JOC Board for FGGE<br />

5.6 Operational direction <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> FGGE<br />

JOC-XI I Report, ANNEX B<br />

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL<br />

ORGAN IZAT ION


JOC-XII Report, ANNEX B, p. 2<br />

6. OTHER GARP SUB-PROGRAMMES AND RELATED PROJECTS<br />

6.1 The Tropical Sub-programme<br />

6.2 The Monsoon Sub-programme<br />

6.3 The Polar Sub-programme<br />

6.4 Air-Flow over and around Mountains<br />

7. OCEANOGRAPH IC PROGRAMMES<br />

7. I Commi ttee on Oceanography and GARP<br />

8. ORGANIZATION OF FUTURE WORK<br />

8. I Future meetings and planning activities<br />

8.2 GARP publications<br />

8.3 The Joint Planning Staff and <strong>the</strong> GARP Activities Office<br />

8.4 GARP Implementation Fund<br />

8.5 Date and place <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> next <strong>session</strong>


REPORT OF THE CHAIRMAN<br />

JOC-XI I Report, ANNEX C<br />

As has come to be normal, a substantial amount <strong>of</strong> activity has taken place since<br />

JOC-XI in Tokyo. Most <strong>of</strong> this wi I I be considerenduring JOC-XI I under <strong>the</strong> appropriate<br />

topics for discussion, but a few highl ights are worth noting here.<br />

In January <strong>of</strong> 1976, Pr<strong>of</strong>essor Doos and I travel led to Baghdad at <strong>the</strong> invitation<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Iraqi Meteorological Service, to discuss possible Iraqi contributions to <strong>the</strong> FGGE.<br />

We were very wel I received <strong>the</strong>re and had discussions with very senior people. As a result,<br />

Iraq sent a delegation to <strong>the</strong> Inter-governmental Planning Meeting for <strong>the</strong> FGGE and very<br />

seriously considered making a substantial contribution to <strong>the</strong> FGGE. Unfortunately, in <strong>the</strong><br />

event, it appears that this contribution wi I I not materialize.<br />

In <strong>the</strong> same vein, later in <strong>the</strong> year, Pr<strong>of</strong>essor Doos made a tour <strong>of</strong> oi I producing<br />

countries in <strong>the</strong> Middle East, in order to ascertain whe<strong>the</strong>r any funds for <strong>the</strong> FGGE might<br />

be forthcoming. These approaches have not so far produced any definite results, although<br />

<strong>the</strong>re remains some possibi Iity <strong>of</strong> something positive developing in <strong>the</strong> future.<br />

In February, <strong>the</strong> Inter-governmental Planning Meeting for <strong>the</strong> FGGE was held in<br />

Geneva. 44 nations were represented and commitments and indications for resources which<br />

might be available for <strong>the</strong> Global Experiment were made. I represented JOC at <strong>the</strong> meeting.<br />

Following this meeting, an extraordinary <strong>session</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> FGGE Panel was held, also in Geneva,<br />

to consider <strong>the</strong> impl ications for <strong>the</strong> FGGE <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> indications and commitments made by <strong>the</strong><br />

nations. It was determined that, although commitments sti I I remained sUbstantially short<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> requirements, <strong>the</strong> prospect <strong>of</strong> mounting a global experiment not too different from<br />

that which had been defined by <strong>the</strong> JOC, was good. Planning should be pressed forward.<br />

Despite <strong>the</strong> economic difficulties which most nations were experiencing, <strong>the</strong>re was a substantial<br />

feel ing <strong>of</strong> optimism at <strong>the</strong> Panel <strong>session</strong>.<br />

This Panel <strong>session</strong> was followed by a JOC Officers' Meeting, a <strong>report</strong> <strong>of</strong> which has<br />

al ready been circulated and so need not be dealt with here.<br />

Much unfinished business remains in connexlon with GATE. The Tropical Experiment<br />

Board met in Geneva in May. It appears that <strong>the</strong> GATE data analysis is going slower than<br />

pi anned, and continUing pressure wi I I have to be made to keep <strong>the</strong> work moving. However,<br />

<strong>the</strong> delays which have occurred are nei<strong>the</strong>r particularly surprising nor partiCUlarly<br />

disturbing to those fami liar with major efforts <strong>of</strong> this kind.<br />

The GARP Cl imate Sub-programme in particular and cl imate change in general have<br />

been prominent in discussions taking place both within ICSU and within <strong>the</strong> WMO. The international<br />

concern over <strong>the</strong> problem <strong>of</strong> cl imate fluctuations has risen very substantially over<br />

<strong>the</strong> last few years, notably because <strong>of</strong> agricultural problems in various parts <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> world.<br />

A large number <strong>of</strong> different organizations are turning <strong>the</strong>ir attention to climate-related<br />

studies. How unnecessary dupl ication <strong>of</strong> effort can be avoided is becoming a problem demanding<br />

serious attention. The way in which GARP fits into evolving arrangements wi I I be <strong>of</strong><br />

great importance to JOC over <strong>the</strong> next few years.<br />

I should Iike to close this <strong>report</strong> with a personal note, since it is my last as<br />

Chairman <strong>of</strong> JOC. The past four years have been perhaps <strong>the</strong> most interesting and stimulating<br />

<strong>of</strong> my life. JOC itself has been certainly <strong>the</strong> best <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> large number <strong>of</strong> international<br />

<strong>committee</strong>s with which I have been associated. The qual ity <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> individuals on <strong>the</strong><br />

Committee, <strong>the</strong> frankness and high level <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> debate and <strong>the</strong> wi I I ingness to be decisive<br />

have been remarkable. Chairing <strong>the</strong> Committee has frequently been I ike trying to control a<br />

team <strong>of</strong> very spirited horses, and I wi I I not deny that it has sometimes been exhausting.<br />

However, it has been a stimulating and rewarding- experience for which I would like to<br />

thank al I members <strong>of</strong> JOC.


JOC-XI I Report, Annex D, p. 3<br />

This solution requires some development although much existing hardware can be<br />

used. It appears that this solution wi I I permit more uniform processing than<br />

version 3.<br />

The disadvantage with this solution is that <strong>the</strong> sounding wi I I not be avai lable<br />

on-board in "real time".<br />

Version 3: On board processing and retransmission via geostationary satel Iite to a ground<br />

station.<br />

The main advantages with this solution are that few hardware developments are<br />

needed and that <strong>the</strong> sounding wi I I be avai lable on board in "real-time". Such<br />

a system would thus be more attractive for later use at land stations.<br />

The main disadvantage with this solution is that <strong>the</strong> ship board equipment is<br />

relatively much more complex, and may require more highly ski I led personnel<br />

to keep it operating. Ano<strong>the</strong>r important disadvantage with this solution<br />

is <strong>the</strong> higher cost (twice as expensive as version 2).<br />

The Officers agreed on <strong>the</strong>deslrablJ ity that an expert be engaged to provide <strong>the</strong><br />

Director <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>GAO with information on <strong>the</strong> field rei iabi I ity and <strong>the</strong> complexity <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

operation regarding versions 2 and 3.<br />

2.2 Back-Up space communication I ink in Africa<br />

The Officers considered <strong>the</strong> need for establ ishing a back-up communication I ink<br />

in Africa prior to <strong>the</strong> Global Experiment.<br />

A possible solution to this problem is described in Appendix A. The proposed back­<br />

up system wi I I make use <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> TIROS-N/ARGOS Data Collection and Location system. It wi I I<br />

transmit meteorological data from field stations to any regional centre and to <strong>the</strong> G.T.S.<br />

through on board storage and transmission to NOAA Space Data Acquisition Faci I ities.<br />

3. THE CLIMATE DYNAMICS SUB-PROGRAMME<br />

The Officers reviewed <strong>the</strong> tentative schedule <strong>of</strong> specific activities for <strong>the</strong> fur-<strong>the</strong>r<br />

development <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> GARP Cl imate Dynamics SUb-programme.


10.2 Lectures<br />

JOC-XI I Report, Annex 0, p. 9<br />

The Officers agreed to invite <strong>the</strong> following scientists to make presentations <strong>of</strong><br />

some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> key problem areas within GARP:<br />

B. Bol in; The GARP Cl imate Dynamics Sub-programme<br />

K. Hasselmann: The Role <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Oceans in Cl i mate Mode I ling<br />

J. Smagorinsky; The Monsoon Experiment<br />

An invited expert: The West African Monsoon Study.<br />

10.3 Experts to be invited<br />

A. Wi in-Nielsen: Chairman <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> JOC Working Group on Numerical Experimentation<br />

H. Charnock<br />

S. Tewungwa: Director-General I East African Meteorological Department<br />

An expert on <strong>the</strong> West African Monsoon Study.


JOC ....XII Report,. Annex D, Appendix C, p. 2<br />

Thus COG, like JOC, wil I effectively put pressure on some scientists to deflect<br />

or even change entirely <strong>the</strong> direction <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir research. Some research orientations wi I I<br />

take precedent over o<strong>the</strong>rs. Indeed, if this were not <strong>the</strong> case COG would be largely un­<br />

necessary or largelY ineffective.<br />

Such pressure wi I I only be wel I received if COG is composed <strong>of</strong> outstanding<br />

scientists, commanding <strong>the</strong> greatest respect for <strong>the</strong>ir scientific judgement. We are aware<br />

that <strong>the</strong> membership <strong>of</strong> COG, as proposed, wi I I include several such people. However, we<br />

feel uncomfortable with <strong>the</strong> way in which <strong>the</strong> membership is decided, in that a large pro­<br />

portion <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> members are ex <strong>of</strong>ficio, and <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>rs wi I I be regarded as representatives<br />

<strong>of</strong> various groups. In our opinion it would be better if each member were chosen as an in­<br />

dividual, with <strong>the</strong> criteria essentially those <strong>of</strong> scientific or technological excellence,<br />

toge<strong>the</strong>r with ensuring that <strong>the</strong> ful I range <strong>of</strong> required expertise relative to GARP exists<br />

i·n <strong>the</strong> Comm ittee .<br />

The JOC Officers note with gratitude that SCOR proposes <strong>the</strong> inclusion <strong>of</strong> two<br />

nominees <strong>of</strong> JOC in COG. We are in ful I accord with <strong>the</strong> intent: to provide <strong>the</strong> very<br />

closest I iaison between JOC and COG. However, for <strong>the</strong> time being we prefer to postpone<br />

identifying any nominee to COG. As we have stated above, we tend not to favour <strong>the</strong> notion<br />

<strong>of</strong> representation, and it is difficult for nominees not to be representatIves. Never<strong>the</strong>less,<br />

we agree that <strong>the</strong>re are certain viewpoints which JOC would I ike to ensure were expressed<br />

within COG.<br />

We <strong>the</strong>refore propose to wait unti I <strong>the</strong> membership <strong>of</strong> COG is settled. We may<br />

<strong>the</strong>n find that al I needs we see are met, including <strong>the</strong> need for close association between<br />

COG and JOC, and so no additional proposals by JOC would be required. This situation would<br />

have <strong>the</strong> added advantage <strong>of</strong> restraining somewhat <strong>the</strong> sIze <strong>of</strong> COG, which we suspect to be a<br />

bit large.<br />

On <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r hand, if we do identify some needs remaining to be fl I led after <strong>the</strong><br />

COG membership is chosen, we can <strong>the</strong>n act appropriately ei<strong>the</strong>r by suggesting one or two<br />

additional members or by proposing some o<strong>the</strong>r arrangements.<br />

I would welcome your reactions to <strong>the</strong>se frank comments. It would be especially<br />

useful to have it before JOC XI I, in mid-June.<br />

S j neared y,<br />

R. W. Stewart<br />

Chairman JOC


JOC-XII Report, Annex D, AppendIx D, p.. 2<br />

Fur<strong>the</strong>rmore, we recommend to <strong>the</strong> nations <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> TEB that <strong>the</strong>y support <strong>the</strong> pro­<br />

gramme by making resources avai lable for visitors ei<strong>the</strong>r through institutional resources,<br />

exchange <strong>of</strong> scientists on a I: I basis, or possibly through independent bi lateral agreements<br />

which have already been established.<br />

3. RECOMMENDATION ON THE GATE INTERNATIONAL DATA MANAGMENT SYSTEM<br />

Several important components in <strong>the</strong> design <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> international GATE data manage­<br />

ment system are <strong>the</strong> 5 Subpprogramme Data Centres and <strong>the</strong> 2 Archives (WDC-A and WDC-B). As<br />

we approach <strong>the</strong> final year <strong>of</strong> data processing, it is essential to know exactly <strong>the</strong> data<br />

products which wi I I be produced with proper val idation and wi I I be placed in <strong>the</strong> archives<br />

for future scientific research.<br />

Existing plans for <strong>the</strong>se groups appear to be sometimes too ambitious in scope,<br />

or in o<strong>the</strong>r cases, not comp Iete. Now that <strong>the</strong> data are beg inn i ng to flow to <strong>the</strong>se centres<br />

and <strong>the</strong> resources <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se Centres are known (and I imited), it Is important to specify In<br />

detai I what wi I I be done (and wi I I not be done) so that <strong>the</strong> scientific community wi I I have<br />

no misconceptions.<br />

We request <strong>the</strong> GAO to encourage each <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> SDCs to prepare a final, complete and<br />

real istic plan for <strong>the</strong> operation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> SDCs during <strong>the</strong>ir final year (or so) <strong>of</strong> work. The<br />

plan should be presented at <strong>the</strong> meeting <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> TEB.


JOC-XI I Report, Annex E. p. 10<br />

5.3 Comments<br />

It was recognized by <strong>the</strong> WGNE that <strong>the</strong> proposed tri-scale partitioning <strong>of</strong> RMS<br />

scores preserved <strong>the</strong> desired simpl icity and could be appl ied equally wel I to synoptic fore­<br />

casts or analyses and to various time-averaged fields (e.g. 5-, 10- or 30-day averages).<br />

The RMS scores <strong>of</strong> combinations <strong>of</strong> such space and time averaged data should prove especially<br />

useful in assessing <strong>the</strong> ski I I <strong>of</strong> extended-range and cl imatic forecasts <strong>of</strong> both <strong>the</strong> conven­<br />

tional state variables (e.g. temperature, pressure and wind) and <strong>of</strong> derived variables such<br />

as precipitation, cloudiness and elements <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> energy balance (e.g. eddy transports and<br />

energy transformation rates).<br />

5.4 Review<br />

After <strong>the</strong> recalculation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> RMS scores <strong>of</strong> a sample <strong>of</strong> conventional predict-<br />

abi I ity experiments along <strong>the</strong> I ines suggested in 5.2 above has been performed as a test case,<br />

it is suggested that <strong>the</strong> WGNE issue guidelines for evaluation <strong>of</strong> forecasts and analyses for<br />

consideration by <strong>the</strong> numerical modelling community at its thirteenth <strong>session</strong> in April 1976.<br />

This issue would conceivably be quite crucial, since <strong>the</strong> evaluation thus made may determine<br />

<strong>the</strong> guidel ines for <strong>the</strong> steering <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> future atmospheric sciences.<br />

6. I<br />

6. I. I<br />

6. NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTATION PROGRAMME RELATED TO THE GARP<br />

CLIMATE DYNAMICS SUB-PROGRAMME<br />

Performance Comparisons <strong>of</strong> Cl imate Models<br />

The prel iminary <strong>report</strong> submitted by <strong>the</strong> WGNE Ad Hoc Group on Cl imate Model Compari­<br />

sons was reviewed by <strong>the</strong> WGNE. The importance <strong>of</strong> this proposed activitiy was reaffirmed<br />

and <strong>the</strong> <strong>report</strong> was endorsed with <strong>the</strong> single revision <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> projected timing (see paragraph<br />

6. 1.2 below).


JOC-XI I Report, Annex E, p. 13<br />

(I) to identify <strong>the</strong> parameterization requirements <strong>of</strong> ocean-atmosphere interactions on<br />

time scales from 10- 1 to 10 2 years from <strong>the</strong> viewpoint <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir role in cl imate<br />

dynamics;<br />

(2) to identify <strong>the</strong> fur<strong>the</strong>r research needed on oceanic processes in order to improve<br />

such parameterizations <strong>of</strong> ocean-atmosphere interaction on <strong>the</strong>se time scales.<br />

The WGNE feels that such a conference would be <strong>the</strong> most effective way to plan<br />

<strong>the</strong> necessary numerical experimentation with ocean models, i.e. by executing <strong>the</strong>m wherever<br />

possible in <strong>the</strong> context <strong>of</strong> a coupled ocean-atmosphere system.<br />

To implement this approach to cl'imate model I ing, <strong>the</strong> WGNE wi I1 invite <strong>the</strong> chair­<br />

men <strong>of</strong> SCOR Working Groups 34 and 49 to its thirteenth <strong>session</strong> in Apri I 1976, and propose<br />

an expansion <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> WGNE membership to include a representative <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> oceanic model ling<br />

community (see Section 12. I).<br />

7. UTILIZATION OF FGGE DATA SETS<br />

The Working Group wishes to fur<strong>the</strong>r stimulate <strong>the</strong> discussion on <strong>the</strong> uti Iization<br />

ot FGGE data sets in <strong>the</strong> research community.<br />

8. THE JOC STUDY GROUP CONFERENCE ON FOUR-DIMENSIONAL DATA ASSI.MILATiON<br />

(Paris, 17-21 November 1975)<br />

The final programme was examined by <strong>the</strong> Working Group. It was decided that <strong>the</strong><br />

Proceedings <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Conference include <strong>the</strong> results <strong>of</strong> discussions concerning <strong>the</strong> assessment<br />

<strong>of</strong> research on tour-dimensional assimi lation: present status and prospects for <strong>the</strong> future.<br />

9. THE JOC STUDY GROUP CONFERENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMERICAL MODELS FOR THE TROPICS<br />

(ExGter, U.K., 4-10 Apri I 1976)<br />

It was decided that about half <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> time <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Study Conference should be de­<br />

voted to <strong>the</strong> presentation <strong>of</strong> scientific papers, and that <strong>the</strong> rest ot <strong>the</strong> time should be<br />

spent in discussion groups which would evaluate <strong>the</strong> state <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> art and identify problems<br />

which remain to be solved.


JOC-XI I Report, Annex E, p. /5<br />

groups stating that despite <strong>the</strong>se problems, it was hoped that al I groups would continue with<br />

<strong>the</strong>ir integrations based on <strong>the</strong>se data.<br />

I 1.3 A representative <strong>of</strong> GFDL stated that he_hoped it would be possible to prepare a<br />

different set <strong>of</strong> analyses for November 1969 (using four-dimensional data assimi lation<br />

techniques) at GFDL within <strong>the</strong> next year. The WGNE decided that those groups currently<br />

carrying out experiments with <strong>the</strong> Montreal data should be encouraged to conduct similar<br />

"xp0riments with <strong>the</strong> GFDL data when it is ava1lable.<br />

I 1.4 In a simi lar token, data sets which wil I be, or have been prepared during <strong>the</strong><br />

GAT[ or DST (Data Systems Test) periods should also be uti! ized,<br />

I!. I Re-evaluation <strong>of</strong> WGNE Functions<br />

17. ORGANIZATION OF FUTURE WORK<br />

12. 1.1 The Working Group discussed <strong>the</strong> organization <strong>of</strong> its work now and in <strong>the</strong> future.<br />

It was real ized that <strong>the</strong> work in <strong>the</strong> past had to a large extent been concerned with <strong>the</strong> pre­<br />

,Iaratlon <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> FGGE through <strong>the</strong> performance <strong>of</strong> Observlng System Simulatlon Experiments,<br />

<strong>the</strong> work on <strong>the</strong> observational sub-programmes and <strong>the</strong> data management for <strong>the</strong> FGGE. The<br />

expectation is that <strong>the</strong>se efforts wi I I become unnecessary in <strong>the</strong> near future when <strong>the</strong> plans<br />

for <strong>the</strong> FGGE.have been finalized.<br />

12. 1.2 The activities <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Working Group in <strong>the</strong> coming years wi I I mainly be concentra-<br />

led on two major areas:<br />

(a) The evaluation <strong>of</strong> prediction experiments using <strong>the</strong> FGGE data sets.<br />

(b) The problems deal ing with <strong>the</strong> incorporation <strong>of</strong> physical processes (para­<br />

meterization) in prediction models wi I I continue.<br />

(c) The evaluation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> impact and importance <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> various components <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> FGGE observation period (OSE = Observing System Experiments).


INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL OF<br />

SCIENTIFIC UNIONS<br />

WORKING GROUP ON<br />

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTATION<br />

TWELFTH SESSION, PARIS, NOVEMBER 1975<br />

I. ORGANIZATION OF THE SESSION<br />

I. I Opening <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>session</strong><br />

1.2 Approval <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Agenda<br />

JOINT GARP ORGANIZING COMMITTEE<br />

AGENDA<br />

2. OBSERVING SYSTEMS SIMULATION EXPERIMENTS (OSSE) FOR THE FGGE<br />

2. I Results <strong>of</strong> additional experiments for re, :ning <strong>the</strong> observational<br />

requirements in <strong>the</strong> equatorial tropics<br />

2.2 Results <strong>of</strong> fur<strong>the</strong>r analysis <strong>of</strong> OSSE for <strong>the</strong> sou<strong>the</strong>rn hemisphere<br />

2.3 Additional OSSE's on <strong>the</strong> buoy array<br />

2.4 Results <strong>of</strong> four-dimensional data assmi lation carried out at <strong>the</strong><br />

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory<br />

JOC-XII Report, ANNEX E, APPEND.lX A<br />

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL<br />

ORGANIZATION<br />

2.5 Results <strong>of</strong> new series <strong>of</strong> OSSE carried out at <strong>the</strong> UK Meteorological Office<br />

2.6 Evaluation <strong>of</strong> Observing Systems Simulation Experiments<br />

3. EXPECTED ACCURACIES OF THE OBSERVATIONS OBTAINED FROM THE INDIVIDUAL COMPONENTS<br />

OF THE FGGE OBSERVING SYSTEM<br />

4. THE DATA MANAGEMENT SYSTEM FOR THE FGGE<br />

4. I The Data Systems Test<br />

4.2 Production <strong>of</strong> Level I I data sets<br />

4.3 Production <strong>of</strong> Level I I I data sets<br />

4.4 Archiving<br />

5. EVALUATION OF NUMERICAL PREDICTABILITY EXPERIMENTS<br />

6. NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTATION PROGRAMME RELATED TO THE GARP CLIMATE DYNAMICS SUB-PROGRAMME<br />

6. I Performance comparisons <strong>of</strong> climate models<br />

6.2 Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> WGNE Ad-hoc Working Group on <strong>the</strong> Global Data Base for<br />

Climate Research<br />

6.3 Climate modelling<br />

6.4 Climate parameterization meeting<br />

6.5 Coupled ocean-atmosphere models


JOC-XI I Report, Annex E, Appendix A, p. 2<br />

I. UT ILI ZAT ION OF FGGE DATA SETS<br />

H. THL JOC STUDY GROUP CONFERENCE ON FOUR-DIMENSIONAL DATA ASSIMILATION<br />

lJ. THE JOC STUDY GROUP CONFERENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMERICAL MODELS<br />

FOR THE TROPICS<br />

10. NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTATION RELATED TO OTHER GARP SUB-PROGRAMMES AND<br />

RELATED PROJECTS<br />

10. I The Monsoon Sub-programme<br />

10.2 Air-flow over and around mountains<br />

I I. THE BASIC DATA SET PROJECT<br />

1/. ORGANIZATION OF FUTURE WORK<br />

12. I Re-evaluation <strong>of</strong> WGNE functions<br />

12.2 Publications<br />

12.) Date and Place <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> next meeting


JOC-XII Report, ANNEX E, APPENDIX C<br />

REVIEW OF RECENT OBSERVING SYSTEMS SIMULATION EXPERIMENTS<br />

INTRODUCTION<br />

I. - At its first <strong>session</strong> <strong>the</strong> WMO/EC Inter-governmental Panel on <strong>the</strong> FGGE<br />

requested <strong>the</strong> JOC to review its recommendations for requirements for Basic and<br />

Speci a I Observi ng Systems, in <strong>the</strong> light <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> most recent Observi ng- Systems<br />

Simulation Experiments (OSSE).<br />

2. In response to this request <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Inter-governmental Panel on <strong>the</strong><br />

FGGE, <strong>the</strong> JOC requested <strong>the</strong> JOC Working Group on Numerical Experimentation to<br />

fur<strong>the</strong>r analyse <strong>the</strong> result <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> existing OSSE on a regional basis and give<br />

quantitative comments on <strong>the</strong> performance <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> various feasible observing<br />

platform arrangements.<br />

PURPOSE OF DOCUMENT<br />

3. The purpose <strong>of</strong> this document Is to Inform <strong>the</strong> Committee on <strong>the</strong> re-analysis<br />

<strong>of</strong> preVious OSSE and <strong>the</strong> results <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> OSSE performed after <strong>the</strong> first <strong>session</strong><br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Panel.<br />

Basic Scheme <strong>of</strong> OSSE<br />

i<br />

Method <strong>of</strong> OSSE<br />

DI SCUSS ION<br />

4. At <strong>the</strong> National Centre for Atmospheric Research, <strong>the</strong> control data sets<br />

(i.e. artificial observations) for <strong>the</strong> experiment were generated by a high resolution<br />

model (i.e. <strong>the</strong> IItruth ll model) and <strong>the</strong> data were introduced into a low resolution<br />

model (i .e. <strong>the</strong> lIass imi lation il model) for <strong>the</strong> four-dimensional assimi lation and<br />

analysis. A simple updating method was used for taking into account new data from<br />

simulated special observing systems which was similar to those proposed by<br />

Bengtsson and More I. The resu Its <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> four-d Imens lonal ana Iys Is performed by<br />

<strong>the</strong> lIass lmi latlon ll model were verified against <strong>the</strong> pseudo-observation obtained<br />

from <strong>the</strong> IItruth" model integration.


JOC-XII Report, Annex E, Appendix C, p. 2<br />

5. At <strong>the</strong> UK Meteorological Office, <strong>the</strong> "truth" model was not only a high<br />

resolution model, but also possessed soph-isticated physical procedures. On<br />

<strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r hand, <strong>the</strong> " ass imi lation" model was a low resolution model and has a<br />

less realistic physical rationale. In introducing new data from a simulated<br />

special observing system, <strong>the</strong> following three methods <strong>of</strong> updating were<br />

used and compared:<br />

(a) simple updating<br />

(b) objective analysis with optimum interpolation<br />

(c) 80%""95% (objective analysis with optimum interpolation) + 5%"'20%<br />

("c limatol og i ca I" data)*<br />

Concerning <strong>the</strong> assumed special observing systens, those proposed by Bengtsson<br />

and More I were simulated. The results <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> four-dimensional analysis performed<br />

by <strong>the</strong> "assimi lation" models were verified against <strong>the</strong> pseudo-observation obtained<br />

from <strong>the</strong> "truth" model integration.<br />

6. At <strong>the</strong> Geophys i ca I Flu id Dynami cs Laboratory, instead <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> si mu I ated<br />

data, real data were used. The "assimi lation" model was <strong>the</strong> GFDL global circulation<br />

model. Three different versions <strong>of</strong> data insertion were tested. The scheme for<br />

updating was <strong>the</strong> forward continuous method. The results <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> four-dimensional<br />

analysis were mrrparedwith <strong>the</strong> analyses obtained at <strong>the</strong> National Meteorological<br />

Center, NOAA, USA.<br />

7. Advanced, sophisticated, finite-difference general cirCUlation models<br />

were used for <strong>the</strong> experi ments. The characteristi cs <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se mode I s are<br />

summarized in Table I.<br />

* The percentage was changed in some experiments. "Ciimatoiogical ii means a time<br />

average for a certain period (about a month) <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> simulated data. The<br />

period was also changed in some experiments.


JOC-XI I Report, Annex E, Appendix C, p. 7<br />

12. The analyses obtained at GFDL by a 4-dimensional data assimi lation<br />

method were compared with <strong>the</strong> Leve I III data obta i ned at <strong>the</strong> NaHona I Meteoro­<br />

logical Center (NMC), USA, from an objective analysis based on Flattery's Hough·<br />

function method. Results seem to show that a minimum RMS difference on <strong>the</strong><br />

average <strong>of</strong> 6 m/sec exists between <strong>the</strong> wind analyses for <strong>the</strong> tropics and nor<strong>the</strong>rn<br />

hemisphere sUb-tropics, and that at greater densities <strong>the</strong> range <strong>of</strong> difference<br />

is smaller.. As to <strong>the</strong> temperature RMS difference, <strong>the</strong> minimum difference is<br />

2 0 C and <strong>the</strong> maximum about aOc.<br />

REFERENCES: I. Nitta, T., Lorenc, A., Gilchrist, A. and Wi I liamson, D., 1975:<br />

Observing Systems Simulation Experiments for <strong>the</strong> First GARP<br />

Global Experiment. The GARP Programme on Numerical<br />

Experimentation, Report No. 10 (in preparation)<br />

2. WMO/ICSU, 1974: Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> JOC-X<br />

3. WMO/ICSU, 1974: Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> WMO/EC Inter-governmental Panel<br />

on <strong>the</strong> First GARP Global Experiment, First Session.<br />

GARP Special Report No. 14.<br />

4. WMO/ICSU, 1975: Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> JOC Working Group on Numerical<br />

Experimentation, Eleventh Session.


INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL OF<br />

SCIENTIFIC UNIONS<br />

JOINT GARP ORGANIZING COMMITTEE<br />

JOC-XII Rep9rt 1 ANNEX F<br />

REPORT OF THE THIRTEENTH SESSION OF THE WORKING GROUP ON<br />

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTATION<br />

(EXETER, U.K., 31 MARCH-2 APRIL 1976)<br />

GENEVA, MAY 1976<br />

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL<br />

ORGANI ZATI ON


I. INTRODUCTION<br />

JOC-XI I Report, Annex F, p. 3<br />

1.1 The Working Group on Numerical Experimentation held its thir<strong>the</strong>enth <strong>session</strong> at<br />

Exeter, United Kingdom, at <strong>the</strong> Ma<strong>the</strong>matics Department, University <strong>of</strong> Exeter, 31 March ­<br />

2 Apri I 1976, with <strong>the</strong> following participation:<br />

Pr<strong>of</strong>essor A. Wiin-Nielsen, Member (Chairman)<br />

Dr. L. Bengtsson, Member<br />

Mr. F. Bushby, Member<br />

Dr. L. Gates, Member<br />

Dr. A. Robert, Member<br />

Dr. S. Schneider, Member<br />

Pr<strong>of</strong>essor K. Hasselmann, Invited Expert<br />

Pr<strong>of</strong>essor A.R. Robinson, Invited Expert<br />

Pr<strong>of</strong>essor B.R. Doos, Director, JPS and GAO<br />

Dr. T. Nitta, Scientific Officer, GAO<br />

Dr. S.Z. Zi I itinkevich was unable to attend. Pr<strong>of</strong>essors Hasselmann and Robinson participated<br />

in <strong>the</strong> discussion on <strong>the</strong> agenda item 6.3.<br />

1.2 The approved agenda <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> meeting is attached as Appendix A.<br />

2. OBSERVING SYSTEM SIMULATION EXPERIMENTS (OSSE) FOR FGGE<br />

2.1 Additional OSSE' s on <strong>the</strong> drifting bUoy observing systems<br />

Because previous OSSE' s on <strong>the</strong> effect <strong>of</strong> different buoy distributions In <strong>the</strong><br />

Sou<strong>the</strong>rn hemisphere had been somewhat inconclusive, a new set <strong>of</strong> experiments was conducted<br />

by <strong>the</strong> UK Meteorological Office at Bracknell. These experiments were more real istic than<br />

previous experiments at Bracknel I because better models were used both for <strong>the</strong> "truth"<br />

and for assimi lation, and in addition to optimum interpolation a repeated insertion technique<br />

was adopted in <strong>the</strong> assimi lation process.


JOC-XI I Report, Annex F, p. 5<br />

It is important to stress that in <strong>the</strong> sou<strong>the</strong>rn hemisphere winter <strong>the</strong> improvements<br />

in surface analysis due to <strong>the</strong> addition <strong>of</strong> a buoy network to <strong>the</strong> basic observing system are<br />

I ikely to be considerably greater than <strong>the</strong>y were in this OSSE. The improvements due to <strong>the</strong><br />

buoy network wi I I also be greater if for any reason <strong>the</strong> basic observing system is not as<br />

good as was assumed during <strong>the</strong> latest experiment.<br />

3. EXPECTED ACCURACIES OF THE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE<br />

INDIVIDUAL COMPONENTS OF THE FGGE OBSERVING SYSTEM<br />

Dr. Bengtsson presented a working paper on expected accuracies <strong>of</strong> observations<br />

from space observing systems and aircraft <strong>report</strong>s. The paper was a revised version <strong>of</strong> an<br />

earl ier <strong>report</strong> which has been reviewed by different users consisting <strong>of</strong> both operational<br />

and research groups.<br />

Although <strong>the</strong>re are considerable difficulties in obtaining accurate estimates <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> errors, <strong>the</strong> WGNE feels that it would be useful for <strong>the</strong> different model I ing groups that<br />

some quantitative values were given. These values must be regarded as best possible esti­<br />

mates based on obtained statistICs and should be updated successively as more complete<br />

information becomes avai lable.<br />

It is found that <strong>the</strong> space observations have a more complex error than conventional<br />

data and <strong>the</strong> Working Group recommends <strong>the</strong>refore that data assimilation procedures are de­<br />

veloped so that such error structures can be taken into consideration.<br />

3.1 Sate I Iite temperature errors<br />

The satel I ite temperature errors are given in Table I. The errors should be re­<br />

garded as free <strong>of</strong> gross systematic errors. It is found that <strong>the</strong> error increases with <strong>the</strong><br />

latitude and depends on <strong>the</strong> wea<strong>the</strong>r situations such that <strong>the</strong> error is larger at high lati­<br />

tudes and in areas <strong>of</strong> clouds.<br />

Satel I ite temperature errors are also correlated in time as wel I as in <strong>the</strong><br />

vertical and <strong>the</strong> horizontal directions. Table 2 presents a matrix <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> error correlation


Table I - RMS error for satel Iite temperature sounding<br />

1000 mb 2.9 ± 0.7<br />

850 mb 2.7 ± 0.6<br />

700 mb 2.3 ± 0.5<br />

500 mb 2.0 ± 0.5<br />

300 mb 2.2 ± 0.6<br />

200 mb 2.5 ± 0.7<br />

100 mb 2.9 ± 0.7<br />

50 mb 2.2 ± 0.5<br />

Mean 2.5 ± 0.7<br />

Table 2 - Error correlation matrix for satel I ite temperature error<br />

1000 mb 850 700 500 300 200 100 50<br />

1000 mb 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.2 0 0 0 0<br />

850 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0 0 0<br />

700 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.3 0 0 0<br />

500 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.3 0 0 0<br />

300 0 0.1 0.3 0.3 1.0 0.1 0 0<br />

200 0 0 0 0 0.1 1.0 0 0<br />

JOC-XI I Report, Annex F, p. 7<br />

100 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.0 0.4<br />

50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.4 1.0<br />

4. THE DATA MANAGEMENT SYSTEM FOR THE FGGE<br />

The WGNE reviewed <strong>the</strong> present status <strong>of</strong> planning for <strong>the</strong> data management for <strong>the</strong><br />

FGGE. Whi le <strong>the</strong> WGNE real ises that it has been a practical necessity to subdivide <strong>the</strong> total<br />

task into many separate parts it never<strong>the</strong>less expressed concern that <strong>the</strong> many interfaces


6.3<br />

6.3. I<br />

JOC-XI I Report, Annex F, p. I I<br />

Joint JOC-SCOR Study Conference on General Circulation Models <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Ocean<br />

and <strong>the</strong>ir Relation to Cl imate<br />

Introduction and Considerations<br />

-------------------------------<br />

The WGNE recognizes <strong>the</strong> importance <strong>of</strong> focussing <strong>the</strong> efforts <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> atmospheric<br />

and oceanic model I ing communities on <strong>the</strong> problem <strong>of</strong> cl imate in a co-ordinated fashion, and<br />

endorses <strong>the</strong> idea <strong>of</strong> a <strong>joint</strong> conference as an appropriate mechanism to achieve this end.<br />

In accordance with <strong>the</strong> request <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> JOC, <strong>the</strong> WGNE has appointed a representative<br />

to take part in <strong>the</strong> planning <strong>of</strong> a Joint JOC/SCOR Study Conference on <strong>the</strong> Role <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Oceans<br />

in Models <strong>of</strong> Cl imate, and an <strong>organizing</strong> <strong>committee</strong> consisting <strong>of</strong> representatives <strong>of</strong> JOC,<br />

WGNE and SCOR Working Groups 34 and 49, has been formed for this purpose. In planning <strong>the</strong><br />

Study Conference, <strong>the</strong> Organizing Committee has taken into consideration:<br />

i) The desires <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> JOC and WGNE to proceed toward <strong>the</strong> development <strong>of</strong> comprehensive<br />

coupled ocean-atmospheric models for climatic research on <strong>the</strong> basis <strong>of</strong> fur<strong>the</strong>r<br />

model I ing studies <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> ocean and atmosphere as separate components while model ling<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> coupled ocean-atmospheric system proceeds at <strong>the</strong> same time.<br />

i i) The desire <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> SCOR Working Group on Internal Dynamics <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Ocean (W.G. No. 34)<br />

to review <strong>the</strong> observations and model I ing <strong>of</strong> oceanic processes, and to review re­<br />

lated cl imatic model I ing on time scales between 6 months and 100 years; and<br />

i i i) The desire <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> SCOR Working Group on Ma<strong>the</strong>matical Model I ing <strong>of</strong> Oceanic Pro­<br />

cesses (W.G. No.49) to review recent research on <strong>the</strong> model I ing <strong>of</strong> selected<br />

oceanic processes, to assess <strong>the</strong> current status <strong>of</strong> models <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> oceanic general<br />

circulation and to develop a focussed view <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> relation <strong>of</strong> ocean models to <strong>the</strong><br />

problem <strong>of</strong> cl imate (as described to WGNE-XI I I by Pr<strong>of</strong>essor A. Robinson) ..


JOC-XI I Report, Annex F, p. 12<br />

6.3.2<br />

As a result <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> initial meeting <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Organizing Committee, <strong>the</strong> following<br />

actions were taken with respect to <strong>the</strong> planning <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Joint JOC/SCOR study conference:<br />

(a) An Organizing Committee was establ ished as fol lows:<br />

Pr<strong>of</strong>essor K. Hasselmann, (JOC), Co-Chairman<br />

Pr<strong>of</strong>essor A. Robinson (SCaR W.G. 34), Co-Chairman<br />

Dr. K. Bryan, (SCaR W.G. 49)<br />

Dr. W.L. Gates, (WGNE)<br />

Pr<strong>of</strong>essor A.S. Monin<br />

(b) The titZe <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Conference is suggested to be:<br />

"Joint JOC/SCOR Study Conference on General Circulation lv10dels <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Ocean and<br />

<strong>the</strong>ir relation to Climate".<br />

(c) The time and place <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Study Conference are suggested as one week sometime<br />

during <strong>the</strong> period Apri I - June 1977 in Helsinki.<br />

(d) It is suggested that attendance at <strong>the</strong> Study Conference be limited to invited<br />

participants in <strong>the</strong> range 30-50 persons<br />

i) Those participants invited to present a review wi I I be asked to prepare<br />

a written summary in advance <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Conference, whi le o<strong>the</strong>r participants<br />

wi I I be invited to contribute to <strong>the</strong> discussion and evaluation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

Conference proceedings as a whole.<br />

ii) It is expected that formal invitations to <strong>the</strong> participants wi I I be issued<br />

on behalf <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Conference organizers by June 1976 in order to al low suf­<br />

ficient time for <strong>the</strong> preparation <strong>of</strong> contributions <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> highest possible<br />

quality.<br />

(e) The Organizing Committee has proposed that <strong>the</strong> prel iminary conference programme<br />

be as shown in <strong>the</strong> Appendix C, with fur<strong>the</strong>r topical elaboration and <strong>the</strong> identifica­<br />

tion <strong>of</strong> specific lectures and speakers to be decided on in subsequent meetings <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> <strong>organizing</strong> <strong>committee</strong>.<br />

(f) It is envisaged that a <strong>report</strong> on <strong>the</strong> Proceedings <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Study Conference (including<br />

both <strong>the</strong> invited papers and <strong>the</strong> discussion) wi I I be prepared immediately following<br />

<strong>the</strong> conference and wi I I be publ ished in <strong>the</strong> GARP publ ication series before <strong>the</strong><br />

end <strong>of</strong> 1977.


9. UTILIZATION OF THE FGGE DATA SETS<br />

JOC-XII Report, Annex F, p. 15<br />

As a result <strong>of</strong> meetings arranged to discuss <strong>the</strong> plans for <strong>the</strong> uti I ization <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

FGGE data sets it is apparent that many operational and research groups have formulated<br />

quite specific programmes to use to <strong>the</strong> various levels <strong>of</strong> data for studies related to a<br />

diagnosis <strong>of</strong> atmospheric structures and processes. In addition, some groups have plans to<br />

use <strong>the</strong> data sets for prediction experiments.<br />

Detai led plans have been received from:<br />

i) The Belgrade Model I ing Group, Yugoslavia<br />

i i) The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, U.S.A.<br />

ii i) The World Meteorological Center, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.<br />

iv) The British Meteorological Office, Bracknel I, U.K.<br />

v) The National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, U.S.A.<br />

vi) The European Centre for Medium-Range Wea<strong>the</strong>r Forecasts, Bracknel I, U.K.<br />

i i ) GFDL<br />

The major areas <strong>of</strong> interest indicated by <strong>the</strong> groups are I isted below:<br />

I. Advection problems<br />

2. Geostrophic adjustment<br />

3. Data assimi lation (ordinary analysis, 4-0 assimi lation)<br />

4. Horizontal space arrangement <strong>of</strong> variables<br />

5. Oceanography.<br />

I. Atmospheric model for data assiml lation<br />

2. Data processing for insertion<br />

3. Assimi lation schemes<br />

4. Seasonal variation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> general clrculation<br />

5. Forecasting (one to several weeks)<br />

6. Monsoon, blocking, stratospheric warming, El Nino.


JOC-XII Report, Annex F, p. 19<br />

Based upon this assessment it was fur<strong>the</strong>r agreed that <strong>the</strong> WGNEwould continue to<br />

use its present mode <strong>of</strong> operation in which a member <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> WGNE takes responsibi I ity for each<br />

major problem area for which he co-ordinates <strong>the</strong> activities between meetings. The member<br />

responsible for a given area may create ad-hoc supporting groups for <strong>the</strong> solution <strong>of</strong> specific<br />

problems. The areas are:<br />

1st GARP Objective<br />

2ndGARP Objective<br />

- Analysis and observing system<br />

- Physical processes and <strong>the</strong>ir parameterization<br />

- Prediction problems<br />

- Tropical Meteorology<br />

- Data problems<br />

- Parameterlzation problems pecul iar to climate time scales<br />

- Cl imate models (with different combinations <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> internal and external systems)<br />

- Ocean models.<br />

The problem areas mentioned above and divided according to <strong>the</strong>ir relation to <strong>the</strong><br />

first and second GARP objectives may also be summarized as fbl lows:<br />

A. Data Problems<br />

- Analysis<br />

- Observing System (Simulation) Experiments<br />

- Global Data Base for Cl imatic Research<br />

B. Predictions and Simulation<br />

- Computational Consideration<br />

- Prediction Experiments<br />

- Simulation Experiments<br />

C. Physical Processes<br />

- Parameterization Procedures for Wea<strong>the</strong>r Prediction Purposes<br />

- Parameterization Procedures for Cl imatic Purposes


JOC-XII Report; Annex F, p. 20<br />

D. GenerC'l1 Circulation Models<br />

- Predictabi I ity<br />

- Joint Ocean-Atmosphere Models<br />

- Cl imatic Models<br />

E. Oceanic Model ling<br />

F. GARP Sub-programmes<br />

The WGNE recommends to <strong>the</strong> JOC that <strong>the</strong> membership <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Working Group should in­<br />

clude members who in addition to general knowledge concerning <strong>the</strong> first and second GARP<br />

objectives and numerical experimentation related <strong>the</strong>reto should be knowledgeable in Oceanic<br />

Modelling and in Tropical Meteorology (including problems related to <strong>the</strong> Monsoon Sub-programme).<br />

The Working Group recommends fur<strong>the</strong>r that <strong>the</strong> total membership should be limited to 8-9<br />

persons. It is fur<strong>the</strong>rmore considered <strong>of</strong> importance for <strong>the</strong> future work <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Working<br />

Group that experts knowledgeable in <strong>the</strong> respective GARP Sub-programmes should be invited<br />

to participate in <strong>the</strong> meeting <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> WGNE 3<br />

as appropriate.<br />

The final corrections for Volume I <strong>of</strong> "Numerical Methods used in Atmospheric<br />

Models" were received from Pr<strong>of</strong>. A. Arakawa,and Dr. M. Cullen is now in <strong>the</strong> process <strong>of</strong><br />

editing <strong>the</strong> last chapter. It is expected that <strong>the</strong> printed book wi I I be ready for dis­<br />

tribution in June or July. It wi I I come out as No. )7 in <strong>the</strong> GARP Publ ication Series.<br />

A plan for Volume 2 was presented at <strong>the</strong> neeting and discussed by <strong>the</strong> members.<br />

Dr. A. Robert and Pr<strong>of</strong>. A. Arakawa wi II take ano<strong>the</strong>r month to finalize this pICin'. Anumber<br />

<strong>of</strong> special ists wi I I <strong>the</strong>n be contacted and asked to contribute material for <strong>the</strong> various<br />

chapters. It is hoped that th is mater ia I wi I I be co I Iected and edited before <strong>the</strong> end <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> year.<br />

WGNE agreed to undertake <strong>the</strong> writing <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> document "Parameterization <strong>of</strong> Physical<br />

Processes in General Circulation Models", to appear ultimately as a GARP Publ icotion Series<br />

<strong>report</strong> •


JOC-XI I Report, Annex F, p. 21<br />

This planned publ ication is intended as a comprehensive survey <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> rationale<br />

and physical basis <strong>of</strong> GCM parameterization schemes used in many current GCMs. In addition<br />

to <strong>the</strong> cataloging <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> basic physical description <strong>of</strong> parameterization, <strong>the</strong> potential for<br />

improving such parameterization and <strong>the</strong> distinction between parameterizations most appro­<br />

priate for models deal ing with <strong>the</strong> 1st or 2nd GARP objectives would be considered.<br />

Dr. S.H. Schneider <strong>of</strong> WGNE has agreed to begin compilation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> publication and hopes<br />

to receive written <strong>report</strong>s on individual parameterization schemes trom GCM groups. The<br />

WGNE establishes an ad-hoc <strong>committee</strong> consisting <strong>of</strong> Dr. S.H. Schneider (Chairman)3<br />

Dr. L. Gates and Dr. A. Robert to plan <strong>the</strong> publication.<br />

I 1.3 Data and Place <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Next Meeting<br />

The next meeting <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> WGNE wi I I be at Montreal, Canada, during <strong>the</strong> period<br />

4-6 October 1976, under invitation <strong>of</strong> Dr. A. Robert.


INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL<br />

OF SCIENTIFIC UNIONS<br />

JOINT GARP ORGANIZING COMMITTEE<br />

WORKING GROUP ON<br />

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTATION<br />

THIRTEENTH SESSION, EXETER, U.K., APRIL 1976<br />

I. ORGANIZATION OF THE SESSION<br />

1.1 Opening <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>session</strong><br />

1.2 Approval <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> agenda<br />

AGENDA<br />

JOC-XII Report, ANNEX F, APPENDIX A<br />

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL<br />

ORGANIZATION<br />

2. OBSERVING SYSTEMS SIMULATION EXPERIMENTS (OSSE) FOR THE FGGE<br />

2. I Additional OSSE's on <strong>the</strong> drifting buoy observing systems<br />

3. EXPECTED ACCURACIES OF THE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE INDIVIDUAL COMPONENTS<br />

OF THE FGGE OBSERVING SYSTEM<br />

3. I Satel Iite soundings<br />

3.2 Satel lite winds<br />

3.3 Aircraft winds<br />

4. THE DATA MANAGEMENT SYSTEM FOR THE FGGE<br />

4. I Second meeting <strong>of</strong> experts for <strong>the</strong> development <strong>of</strong> a data management<br />

plan for <strong>the</strong> FGGE<br />

5. EVALUATION OF NUMERICAL PREDICTABILITY EXPERIMENTS<br />

5. I Guidel ines for evaluation <strong>of</strong> forecasts and analyses for consideration<br />

by <strong>the</strong> numerical model I ing community<br />

6. NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTATION PROGRAMME RELATED TO THE GARP CLIMATE DYNAMICS<br />

SUB-PROGRAMME<br />

6.1 Performance comparison <strong>of</strong> cl imate models<br />

6.2 Global Data Base for cl imate research<br />

6.3 JOC Study Conference on "The Role <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Oceans in Models <strong>of</strong> Cl imate"


JOC-XI I Report, Annex F, Appendix A, p. 2<br />

7. NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTATION RELATED TO OTHER GARP SUB-PROGRAMMES AND<br />

RELATED PROJECTS<br />

7.1 The Mbnsoon Sub-programme<br />

7.2 The Polar SUb-programme<br />

7.3 Air Flow over and around Mountains<br />

8. NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTATION USING GATE DATA<br />

8. I The JOC Study Group Conference on <strong>the</strong> Development <strong>of</strong> Numerical<br />

Models for <strong>the</strong> Tropics (Exeter, U.K., Apri I 1976)<br />

9. UTILIZATION OF FGGE DATA SETS<br />

10. THE BASIC DATA SET PROJECT<br />

II. ORGANIZATION OF FUTURE WORK<br />

11.1 Re-organization <strong>of</strong> WGNE<br />

11.2 Publications<br />

I1.3 Date and place <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> next meeting


JOG-XI I Report, Annex F, Appendix B, p. 3<br />

spheric models, <strong>the</strong> boundary conditions imposed at <strong>the</strong> equator should<br />

also be given. The model's horizontal computational grid should also<br />

be shown if it is not present,on any <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> above maps. A description<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> initial conditions used or <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> model's spin-up history should<br />

also be given.<br />

3. Performance data<br />

In <strong>the</strong> initial comparisons, attention will be focused on a limited<br />

number <strong>of</strong> modeled variables for both January and July. For each model,<br />

<strong>the</strong> following performance data should be prepared:<br />

a. Climatic statistics/maps.<br />

(1) Monthly averages. The global (or hemispheric) distribution<br />

·<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> simulated averages for January (31 days) and July (31 days) <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> following mode led variables (and recommended isolines) should be<br />

submitted:<br />

(a) sea-level pressure (isolines: 996 mh,<br />

1000 rub, 1004 rub, ••• )<br />

(b) precipitation rate (isolines: 0.5 mm/day,<br />

1 mm/day, 2 mm/day, 5 mm/day, 10 mm/day,<br />

15 mm/day)<br />

(c) temperature at 500 rub (isolines: -4°C,<br />

(d) geopotcntial height at 500 rub (isolines:<br />

5340 m, 540p m, 5460 m, ••• )<br />

Ce) zonal (west-east) wind speed at 500 rub<br />

(isolines:<br />

-1<br />

4 m sec •<br />

-1 -1<br />

-4m sec ,Om sec ,


JOC-XI I Report, Annex F, Appendix B, p. 4<br />

(f) meridional (south-north) wind speed at 500 rob<br />

-(i.solines:<br />

-1 -1 -1<br />

-2 m sec 0 m sec , 2 m sec , ••• )<br />

(1) Stw1dard deviations. The global (or hemispheric) distribution<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> simulated standard deviations for January (31 days) and July (31<br />

days) <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> fol1oNing variables (and recommended iso1ines) should be<br />

subnrl_ tted:<br />

(a) sea-level pressure or surface pressure (iso-<br />

lines: 2 rob, 4 rob, 6 rob, ••• )<br />

(b) precipitation rate (iso1ines: 1 mm/day,<br />

2 mm/day, 3 mm/ day, ••• )<br />

(c) temperature at 500 rob (iso1ines: 2°C,<br />

(d) geopotentia1 height at 500 rob (iso1ines:<br />

30 m, 60 m, 90 m, ••• )<br />

(e) zonal wind speed at 500 rob (iso1ines:<br />

-1 -1 -1<br />

2 m sec , 4 msec , 6 m sec , ••• )<br />

(f) meridional wind speed at 500 rob (iso1ines:<br />

-1 -1 -1<br />

1 m sec , 2 m sec , 3 m sec , ••• )<br />

The standard deviation should be calculated from daily simulated values<br />

during <strong>the</strong> months <strong>of</strong> January and July; if more frequent data are used,<br />

an estimate <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> diurnal contribution to <strong>the</strong> standard deviation should<br />

be given.<br />

b. Climatic statistics/meridional cross-sections<br />

(1) Monthly c:'erages. The distribution <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> averages for Janu-<br />

ary and July <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> follO\"ing variables should be submitted in meridi-<br />

ona1 cross-section ::ole-to-pole or equator-to-pole, and from lOG) rob<br />

to 200 rob as rnodele:) :


JOC-XI I Report, Annex F, Appendix C, p. 2<br />

b. Atmospheric responses (AGCM's)<br />

c. Responses in coupled GCM's.<br />

(iii) Experiments with simplified coupled models<br />

V DISCUSSION OF OUTSTANDING PROBLEMS AND OUTLOOK


INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL OF<br />

SCIENTIFIC UNIONS<br />

JOC-XI I Report, ANNEX G<br />

THE GARP CLIMATE DYNAMICS SUB-PROGRAMME<br />

REPORT OF THE JOC AD HOC WORKING GROUP ON<br />

THE GLOBAL DATA BASE FOR CLIMATE RESEARCH<br />

(PRINCETON, 21-23 APRIL 1976)<br />

GENEVA, MAY 1976<br />

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL<br />

ORGANIZATION


JOC-XII Report, Annex G, p'. 2<br />

I. INTRODUCTION<br />

TABLE OF CONTENTS<br />

2. Cll MATE DATA SETS ..•.•..•.•..•.•....•...•..•..•...•..•...•...••....•.••.•••. ,5<br />

3. DATA BASE SPECI FICS II<br />

3. I Atmosphere.. . . . . • . • . . . . . . . . . . . . • . . . . . . . . • • . . . . • . • • . • • • . • • • • . . . . • . . • • . • • I I<br />

3.1.1<br />

3.1.2<br />

3.1.3<br />

3.1.4<br />

, Da i I Y stat i on data •.••.••..•...••.•......••.•••...••.•.•....••.•<br />

Da i Iy gri d poi nt ana lyses .....•....••.•••.•.••.•.•••.•.•.•....•.<br />

Monthly mean basic station data ••.••.....•••.••.•.......••••••..<br />

For middle and upper stratosphere .•.•.••.•.•.•••••••.•..•••••..•<br />

3.2 Radiation Balance and Clouds ••.•.••••••.••.••••••.•••••..•••••••.•.•••. 17<br />

3.2. I<br />

3.2.2<br />

GI oba I month I y mean ana lyses .••••••.•••••••.•.••••••••.••.•••.•.<br />

Cloud amounts and he i ghts •••.••••••.••...••..•..••••••.••.••••••<br />

3.3 Observations <strong>of</strong> Surface Conditions •.•.•.••.••.•••••..•.••••..•••.•••.•. 18<br />

3.3.1<br />

3.3.2<br />

3.3.3<br />

3.3.4<br />

3.3.5<br />

World Monthly Surface Station Data •.••.••••..•••••.•••.••.••••.•<br />

Summary <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Day Surface Data •.••..••••••••••••.••••.••.••••••<br />

Data for Snow and I ce Cover •••..•.••••.••••••••.••.••••••.••••••<br />

Stream Flow Data ••••••••••.••••••.•.•.••..••••••••••.••••..•••••<br />

Soi I Moisture .••••••••••••••••.•••.••••••••.••••••••••••••••••••<br />

3.4 Oceans •••••••••••••.•..•••••.•••••••••••••••.••.••••.•...•••••••••.••.• 20<br />

3.4.1<br />

3.4.2<br />

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) ••.••••.••••••••.•••.•.••••••••••••• 20<br />

Sub-'surface Cond i t ions •••••••..••••••••••••.••••.•••.••••••••••• 25<br />

3.5 Aerosol Processes and Minor Constituents <strong>of</strong> Importance for <strong>the</strong><br />

Rad i ati ve Ba lance •.•.•.••.••••••.•••••••••.•••••..•..•••••••••••••.•••. 26<br />

3.6 Non- i nstrumenta I Records •.••••••••..•••••••••.••.••••••••.••••••••••••., 26<br />

4. QUALITY CONSiDERATIONS •.••••.••••••.•••.••.•.••••••••••.••••••••.•••••••••.. 27<br />

4. I Genera I •••••.••....•••.••••.••••••.••••••••••.•...••••.••.••••••.•.•••• 27<br />

4.2 Net Radiation Budget .....•••.•••••...••.••.•••.••.••.••.•.•.•..•.•••••• 28<br />

4.3 Cloudiness •••.•........•.....•••.•.••.••••..•••.••••..••.•••••••.•..• ·· 28<br />

4.4 Surface AI bedo ••••••..••.••.•••••.•.•.••.•.••••..•.•.•....•••.••••••... 29<br />

4.5 Snow and Sea Ice ••.....•....••.••.•••••..•.••.•.....••••..•.•..•••••••. 29<br />

4.6 Precipitation ...•......•..•.••.•.•.•.•••.••.••••.•.••..•.......•••.····29<br />

4.7 So i I Mo i sture ..•.......•.........••.••••.•.....•.•••......••..•..•...•• 30<br />

4.8 Sea Surface Temperature •.•.•••••••....••...•.••......••.....••......... 30<br />

4.9 Comparisons between Existing Data Sets ••• , ..••••...•..••....•....•.•.•. 31<br />

Page<br />

4<br />

11<br />

14<br />

16<br />

17<br />

17<br />

17<br />

18<br />

18<br />

18<br />

18<br />

18


JOC-XI I Report, Annex G, p. 4<br />

I. INTRODUCTION<br />

The ad-hoc Group met at <strong>the</strong> Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton<br />

New Jersey, U.S·.A., from 21 to 23 Apri I 1976. The following individuals took part in <strong>the</strong><br />

meeti ng:<br />

J. Kutzbach<br />

L. Bengtsson<br />

R. Bernstei n<br />

R. Jenne<br />

W. Nordberg<br />

R. Dickson<br />

E. Hol opai nen<br />

A. Oort<br />

J.S. Perry<br />

(JOC consultant,. Chairman)<br />

(JOC Working Group on Numerical Experimentation)<br />

(JOC consultant)<br />

( Invi ted expert)<br />

(I nvited Expert)<br />

(Invited Expert)<br />

(Invited expert)<br />

(Invited expert)<br />

(JOCconsultant)<br />

The objective <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> meeting was to develop a general plan for <strong>the</strong> development <strong>of</strong><br />

a Global Data Base (GOB) for cl imate research, as recommended by <strong>the</strong> JOC at its tenth and<br />

eleventh <strong>session</strong>s.<br />

The Group took note than an earl ier ad-hoc Group met at Boulder, Colorado from<br />

24 to 26 July 1975, had made a number <strong>of</strong> specific recommendations regarding various aspects<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> GOB. The Group reviewed <strong>the</strong> <strong>report</strong> <strong>of</strong> this meeting and has reiterated many <strong>of</strong> its<br />

recommendations specifically in <strong>the</strong> present <strong>report</strong>. Valuable presentations and written<br />

information were provided by R. Jenne, A. Oort, W. Nordberg, R. Dickson and R. Bernstein.<br />

The Group concluded that its principal task was to develop a data base for climate<br />

model I ing research. The requi rements for such a data base are outlined in GARP Publ ications<br />

Series No. 16, and are substantially more stringent than for many o<strong>the</strong>r purposes, e.g.<br />

conventional cl imatology, short-range prediction, etc. This is due to <strong>the</strong> need to define<br />

simultaneously both <strong>the</strong> internal cl imate system and <strong>the</strong> external forcing functions which<br />

control its behaviour. For this reason, <strong>the</strong> Group placed major emphasis on relatively brief<br />

recent periods in which <strong>the</strong> most complete data are avai lable. The general rationale<br />

adopted is discussed fur<strong>the</strong>r in Section 2 below.<br />

The Group recogn i zed that an immense amount <strong>of</strong> data re Ievant to cl i mate mode I ling<br />

research existed in many forms and at many institutions, and much more is scheduled to be<br />

ga<strong>the</strong>red in <strong>the</strong> years preceding <strong>the</strong> GARP Cl imate Dynamics Decade. Highly significant efforts<br />

have been made (for example, at NCAR and GFDL) to organize data sets for research. In


JOC-XI I Report, Annex G, p. 8<br />

Data avai lable and usable<br />

Data avai lable, but<br />

process ing requ i red<br />

Fragmentary data<br />

Quality investigation<br />

requi red<br />

Resea rch sate I lite<br />

(future unclear)<br />

Possible measurement during<br />

GARP Climate Dynamics Decade<br />

Legend for Fi gurel<br />

Less than<br />

GI oba I Coverage<br />

xxxxxxxxxxx<br />

00000000000<br />

R<br />

?<br />

Global<br />

Coverage<br />

XXXXXXXXXXX<br />

00000000000


JOC-XII Report, Annex G, p. 10<br />

Category 3: Regional to Hemispheric/Selected Variables<br />

(Emphasis on 3-dimensional atmospheric structure)<br />

This data category is hemispheric or regional in extent. It is less complete than<br />

Category 2 in terms <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> number <strong>of</strong> variables. For example, planetary radiation budget data<br />

and most di rect estimates <strong>of</strong> atmospheric diabatic heating are lacking or incomplete. However,<br />

<strong>the</strong> three-dimensional atmospheric structure is wel I-defined. Category 3 data sets are<br />

being produced at this time. For example, <strong>the</strong> work at MIT-GFDL has produced excellent data<br />

sets <strong>of</strong> conventional aerological observations for·<strong>the</strong> nor<strong>the</strong>rn hemisphere and substantial<br />

portims <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> sou<strong>the</strong>rn hemisphere for <strong>the</strong> period 1958-1973. Regional to hemispheric sea­<br />

surface temperature analyses are al.so avai lable for this period. Whi le <strong>the</strong> data sets are not<br />

sufficient for complete cl imate diagnostic studies or model verification studies, <strong>the</strong>y are<br />

never<strong>the</strong>less extremely useful, and continued efforts are needed to upgrade <strong>the</strong>ir qual ity<br />

and spatial coverage in selected regions and periods. Potentially, <strong>the</strong> period since <strong>the</strong><br />

early 1950's forms <strong>the</strong> time domain for Category 3 data sets.<br />

Category 4: Local to Regional/Selected Variables)<br />

(Emphasis on surface observations <strong>of</strong> atmosphere and ocean)<br />

This data set category is hemispheric or regional in extent. In some cases it may<br />

be Iimited to individual stations. It is limited primari Iy to surface observations <strong>of</strong><br />

atmospheric and oceanic variables. It is not complete enough to be <strong>of</strong> use in detai led model<br />

verification studies. It wi I I be, however, useful for veryfying variabi lity statistics <strong>of</strong><br />

model simulations. It wi I I also be extremely useful for <strong>the</strong> study <strong>of</strong> processes in selected<br />

regions, particularly with regard to identifying time and space scales and o<strong>the</strong>r characteri­<br />

stics <strong>of</strong> natural climate variabi Iity. The time period <strong>of</strong> interest is one century (roughly,<br />

1880-1980 ).<br />

Category 5: Local to·Regional/Selected Variables<br />

(Emphasis on non-instrumental observations)<br />

This data category is hemispheric, regional or local in extent. As with Category<br />

4, it is useful for defining time and space scales and describing <strong>the</strong> statistical characteri­<br />

stics <strong>of</strong> natural cl imate variabi I ity both for model verification and exploratory diagnostic<br />

studies. Since <strong>the</strong> JOC has identified <strong>the</strong> time scales <strong>of</strong> interest as seasons to about a<br />

century, it is desirable that at least one thousand years <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> climatic record should be<br />

avai lable. Instrumental records and non-instrumental records are required. Accurately<br />

dated ·non-instrumental records are provided by tree-ring data, annually laminated lake<br />

sedinient cores and annually laminated ice cores. Proper cal ibration <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se non-instrumental<br />

sensors is required.


JOC-XI I Report, Annex G, p. 14<br />

in Figure 6.<br />

Recommendations:<br />

pibal <strong>report</strong>s (below 850 mb) since about 1950<br />

- aircraft <strong>report</strong>s (mainly 200 mb) since about 1960<br />

- satell i te deri ved temperatures and winds since about 1970<br />

The periods and regions for which adequate data are avai lable are summarized<br />

(i) Rawinsonde and winds al<strong>of</strong>t observations<br />

Oai Iy time series <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se observations are prepared from data transmitted over<br />

<strong>the</strong> GT5. Improvements in communications can be very beneficial in decreasing <strong>the</strong><br />

loss <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se data, but countries should sti I I be strongly encouraged to also<br />

collect al I <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir data onto cards or tape in order to make a more complete and<br />

accurate exchange possible. This should include <strong>the</strong> whole period <strong>of</strong> record <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> rawindsonde observations.<br />

(i i) Complete NCAR time series fi les back to 1950 (WMO help is needed).<br />

(i i i) Wi nd <strong>report</strong>s from ai t-craft can fi I1 in some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> gaps in <strong>the</strong> data that are<br />

needed to describe <strong>the</strong> circulation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> atmosphere. Data from a number <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

routes between hemi spheres, and in <strong>the</strong> sou<strong>the</strong>rn hemi sphere are not be i ng saved.<br />

It is recommended that JOC ask WMO to contact countries with major international<br />

ai rports to ensure that <strong>the</strong>se data are saved.<br />

(iv) Complete listing <strong>of</strong> where in world data are avai lab le.<br />

(v) Punch pibal data for crucial area (tropics, monsoon region over Africa)<br />

(vi) Add 950 and 900 mb levels in future as standard levels in dai Iy <strong>report</strong>s for<br />

improved atudies <strong>of</strong> atmospheric mass and moisture budgets in <strong>the</strong> boundary layer.<br />

3. 1.2 Oai Iy grid point analyses <strong>of</strong> T, Z are avai lable since about 1963 for <strong>the</strong><br />

nor<strong>the</strong>rn hemisphere at NMC. Global grid point data <strong>of</strong> u, v, T, Z, q are avai lable at NMC<br />

since <strong>the</strong> 1970's. O<strong>the</strong>r versions are avai lable at <strong>the</strong> WMCs and some RMCs.


JOC-XI I Report, Annex G, p. 16<br />

. . . 12 12 12 12<br />

3. 1.3 Monthly mean basIc station data u, v, T, Z, q, <strong>the</strong> varlances u , v T, Z ,<br />

12 . 11 11 I I -'-I J:T 11 .<br />

q and <strong>the</strong> covarlances u v , uT, v T , u Z , v Z , u q between 1000 and 50 mb are being<br />

or have been compi led in <strong>the</strong> MIT $eneral Circulation Library for 1958-1963 at GFDL.<br />

Monthly mean grid point analyses (300 to 500 km resolution) based on <strong>the</strong> mean<br />

station data wi I I become avai lable for <strong>the</strong> nor<strong>the</strong>rn hemisphere from May 1958 up to <strong>the</strong><br />

FGGE. From about 1968 on, monthly global analyses wi I I be made at GFDL. In <strong>the</strong> nor<strong>the</strong>rn<br />

hemisphere it seems possible to give meaningful estimates <strong>of</strong> interannual variabi Iity since<br />

1958, but in <strong>the</strong> sou<strong>the</strong>rn hemisphere one is probably I imited to describing <strong>the</strong> long-term .'-' - YJ\>·<br />

mean state for each calendar month <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> year. In o<strong>the</strong>r words, one can only describe <strong>the</strong><br />

normal annual cycle adequately. Global interannual studies wi I I propobaly not be feasible<br />

before <strong>the</strong> upper ai r netowrk is improved in <strong>the</strong> sou<strong>the</strong>rn hemisphere, perhaps after <strong>the</strong> FGGE<br />

period. An estimated 20 to 30 additional rawinsonde stations in <strong>the</strong> oceans (IIPhantom<br />

Wea<strong>the</strong>r Shipsll for example) in <strong>the</strong> sou<strong>the</strong>rn hemisphere would improve <strong>the</strong> situation consider-<br />

ably even If <strong>the</strong> frequency <strong>of</strong> observation Is low.<br />

A second approach to obtain monthly mean statistics is by using <strong>the</strong> dai Iy grid<br />

point analyses such as those produced at NMC to compute monthly means, variances and<br />

covari ances.<br />

Recommendations:<br />

(I) For global interannual varlabil ity studies, It is essential to increase <strong>the</strong><br />

rawlnsonde network In <strong>the</strong> sou<strong>the</strong>rn hemisphere (Phantom Wea<strong>the</strong>r Ships?) in any<br />

case during <strong>the</strong> 1980's.<br />

(ii) Compare different data sets (e.g. NMC monthly mean with cqrresponding GFDL analyses)<br />

and do error analyses (see also section. 4. I).<br />

(i i i) Explore feasibi Iity <strong>of</strong> global 4-dimensional analyses with GCM or simpler first­<br />

guess models for entire period since 1970 (?). (This would to some extent bridge<br />

<strong>the</strong> data gaps in <strong>the</strong> sou<strong>the</strong>rn hemisphere, and also provide derived variables such<br />

as vertical velocity, precipitation and cloudiness.)<br />

(iv) Conduct in-depth comparison <strong>of</strong> climatology based purely on conventional with <strong>the</strong><br />

cl imatology based on satel Iite derived temperatures and winds (both regarding<br />

mean variables, variances and covariances).


JOC-XI I Report, Annex G, p. 18<br />

3.3<br />

3.3.1<br />

Observations <strong>of</strong> Surface Conditions<br />

In <strong>the</strong> current fi le <strong>of</strong> World Wea<strong>the</strong>r Records Data, <strong>the</strong>re are a number <strong>of</strong> cases in<br />

which data gaps need to be fi I led for stations with long period <strong>of</strong> observations. About 1500<br />

station years <strong>of</strong> data are missing from about 100 stations.<br />

3.3.2<br />

Most countries have many stations that measure at least precipitation and maximum­<br />

minimum temperature. Since <strong>the</strong> distribution <strong>of</strong> rainfal lover land areas is needed for<br />

cl imatic research, more <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se data should be made avai lable for international exchange.<br />

About one station most representative for each area 125xl25 km should be prepared. Also<br />

<strong>the</strong> "best" average <strong>of</strong> all data within regions <strong>of</strong> that size should be prepared when possible.<br />

For example, this means about 400 data points for <strong>the</strong> United States, each having periods <strong>of</strong><br />

record as long as possible, but with emphasis on <strong>the</strong> later years first.<br />

3.3.3 Data for Snow and Ice Cover<br />

Highly important climate variables have been ga<strong>the</strong>red by G. Kukla since 1967 based<br />

on satel Iite observations for <strong>the</strong> nor<strong>the</strong>rn hemisphere. It is important that <strong>the</strong>se data<br />

obtained from experimental satel lites are fur<strong>the</strong>r ga<strong>the</strong>rred and, where possible, compared<br />

with surface-based observations. Also <strong>the</strong> sea ice data have been collected for <strong>the</strong> nor<strong>the</strong>rn<br />

hemisphere since 1954 and should be continued.<br />

3 ..3.4 Stream Flow Data<br />

Data sets <strong>of</strong> dai Iy stream flow should be collected for al I <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> major streams<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> world for <strong>the</strong> whole avai lable period <strong>of</strong> record. Information must also be prepared<br />

about dams or irrigation changes that affect <strong>the</strong> flow. We request that <strong>the</strong> WMO Hydrology<br />

Division or a JPS consultant prepare a survey <strong>of</strong> data avai labi Iity and propose a procedure<br />

for incorporating <strong>the</strong>se data ina climate data base.<br />

3.3.5 Sol I Moi sture<br />

Information on soi I moisture is at <strong>the</strong> moment not included in <strong>the</strong> SYNOP messages.<br />

Since soi I moisture analyses are planned to be included in <strong>the</strong> FGGE Level I I I-b data set,<br />

<strong>the</strong> data should be included in <strong>the</strong> SYNOP messages so that an extended data base may be more<br />

easi Iy requi red. One <strong>report</strong> per day per station is I ikely to be satisfactory.


Re commen dations:<br />

JOC-XI I Report, Annex G, p. 19<br />

(j) Monthly-mean global distributions <strong>of</strong> snow and sea ice cover for <strong>the</strong> nor<strong>the</strong>rn<br />

hemisphere should be estimated and extended to <strong>the</strong> sou<strong>the</strong>rn hemisphere (NASA, NESS)<br />

(principally based on satell ite brightness datal.<br />

(ii) The feasibility <strong>of</strong> monitoring <strong>the</strong> thickness <strong>of</strong> global snow and ice should be<br />

i nvesti gated as an important component in <strong>the</strong> global heat ba lance. COSPAR WG6<br />

should continue to study this problem.<br />

(iii) The feasibility <strong>of</strong> monitoring soil moisture, surface radiation budget terms,<br />

vegetation indices, surface windstress and surface roughness should be investigated<br />

by an expert. COSPAR WG6 has expressed interest in this problem.<br />

(iv) Global monthly maps <strong>of</strong> surface albedo based on satel lite minimum brightness should<br />

be constructed and compared with distributions based on conventional data<br />

(Vonder Harr, CSU). COSPAR WG6 should assist in this effort.<br />

(v) Careful regional studies <strong>of</strong> surface fluxes <strong>of</strong> sensible and latent heat should be<br />

encouraged for comparison with estimates derived from conventional data sets.<br />

(vi) Observations <strong>of</strong> surface radiation budgets are being made at isolated locations.<br />

Whi le not providing global coverage, <strong>the</strong>y do provide ground truth for possible<br />

surface radiation budget determinations from satell ites. These observations are<br />

also essential for heat and moisture budget studies. They should be collected<br />

and made avai lable for research use.<br />

(vii) The data gaps noted in world monthly surface station data should be fi I led. The WMO<br />

should inform individual natIons which data are missing and request <strong>the</strong>m to Rrovide<br />

<strong>the</strong> data in machine-readable form.<br />

(viii) The availability <strong>of</strong> precipi.tation averages from climatological stations should be<br />

improved. One step, which could wel I be organized by <strong>the</strong> WMO, would be to<br />

assemble a series <strong>of</strong> global precipitation maps with a relatively coarse resolution<br />

(say 125xl25 kml.<br />

(ix) Where avai lab le, soi I moisture should be included in SYNOP messages.


JOC-XI I Report, Annex G, p. 21<br />

Major data sources. The principal data sources for <strong>the</strong> north Pacif1c and north<br />

Atlantic are those produced routinely from ships' logs via <strong>the</strong> WMO ship sampling programme.<br />

As <strong>of</strong> I January 1975, some 7000 merchant ships were participating in <strong>the</strong> scheme witn initial<br />

data collection and exchange undertaken according to giobal areas <strong>of</strong> responsibi I ity by<br />

8 nations (Figs.. 7, 8, Table I). Convenient analyses <strong>of</strong> this type <strong>of</strong> data are made in <strong>the</strong> United<br />

States by <strong>the</strong> National Climatic Center (pre-1967l and NMFS, Monterey (after 1967). In<br />

Europe, a fur<strong>the</strong>r major analysis is being prepared by <strong>the</strong> Meteorological Office, Bracknel I,<br />

in which <strong>the</strong> basic NCC data set n.F. 11) is being supplemented by o<strong>the</strong>r archived data.<br />

This analysis wi I I eventually extend back to <strong>the</strong> 1880's. Although based to some extend on<br />

common data, <strong>the</strong>se United States and United Kingdom analyses are not interchangeable or<br />

identical in quality. Prel iminary intercomparison would suggest that <strong>the</strong> United States data<br />

set, as currently produced, is superior over <strong>the</strong> north Pacific and Atlantic west <strong>of</strong> 50 0 W,<br />

and <strong>the</strong> United Kingdom set is superior over <strong>the</strong> Atlantic east <strong>of</strong> 50 0 Wincluding <strong>the</strong> south<br />

Atlantic and European sub-Arctic. These two sets would toge<strong>the</strong>r form a convenient GARP<br />

data base, but studies should be carried out to determine which sets should be used to<br />

represent individual areas (via intercomparison <strong>of</strong> observation density, standard deviation<br />

<strong>of</strong> means, etc. and to recommend o<strong>the</strong>r (perhaps regional) sources which could complement<br />

<strong>the</strong>se data.<br />

Low latitudes and sou<strong>the</strong>rn hemisphere. The above data sets are confined largely<br />

to <strong>the</strong> nor<strong>the</strong>rn hemisphere. Although both <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se main sources currently produce analyses<br />

for ocean areas south <strong>of</strong> 20 0 N latitude, <strong>the</strong> sparsity <strong>of</strong> data <strong>the</strong>re severely I imits <strong>the</strong><br />

abi I ity to reduce noise through averaging and thus constrains <strong>the</strong> rei iabi Iity <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> data.<br />

This situation can be improved by one or both <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> folloWing ways:<br />

increase <strong>the</strong> sampling via alternative platforms (buoys, etc.)<br />

- markedly decrease <strong>the</strong> noise characteristic in <strong>the</strong> existing data.<br />

The latter course appears to be <strong>the</strong> more feasible in terms <strong>of</strong> economics. On a<br />

monthly basis <strong>the</strong> quantity <strong>of</strong> ship traffic even in a sparsel y trave I led regi on such as <strong>the</strong><br />

centra I equatori al Pacific is not inconsi derab le but at present <strong>the</strong> noise in<br />

individual <strong>report</strong>s is simply too large to identify al I but <strong>the</strong> strongest signals. This<br />

situation can be improved principally by improving and standardizing <strong>the</strong> present shipboard<br />

instrumentation, so that any individual <strong>report</strong> is rei iable to no worse than 0.5 0 C.


JOC-XI I Report, Annex G, p. 25<br />

The Potential for Augmenting Conventional Observation <strong>of</strong> SST Using Satel lite<br />

Remote Sensing. Repeated mention <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> potential for satel lite derived SST appears in many<br />

previous GARP pUbl ications. The accuracy which is being achieved by present operational<br />

methods is presently under study.<br />

Recommendations:<br />

(i) The major U.S. and U.K. data set should be sUbjected to intercomparison studies to<br />

assess which set is superior in terms <strong>of</strong> accuracy and coverage over different ocean<br />

regions. The best choice hybrid sets should <strong>the</strong>n be amalgamated, updated and<br />

maintained. It is noted that in <strong>the</strong>ir efforts to extend <strong>the</strong> SST record into <strong>the</strong><br />

past, <strong>the</strong> most recent years ( post 1969) have been neglected. Since <strong>the</strong>se are<br />

<strong>the</strong> years <strong>of</strong> greatest importance to GARP, when <strong>the</strong> total data set should be most<br />

complete, <strong>the</strong>se centres are urged to update and maintain <strong>the</strong>se valuable records,<br />

at <strong>the</strong> expense <strong>of</strong> earl ier years if necessary.<br />

(i i) Serious consideration should be given to extending to SST observations <strong>the</strong> quality<br />

control procedures presently appl ied to sea level pressure and certain o<strong>the</strong>r<br />

meteorological parameters. This is primari Iy <strong>of</strong> value to sou<strong>the</strong>rn hemisphere<br />

observations but which have valuable noise-reducing effect in <strong>the</strong> densely<br />

traffi cked nor<strong>the</strong>rn hemi sphere as wel I.<br />

3.4.2 Sub-surface Conditions<br />

Time and Space Scales and Sub-surface Temperature Variabi lity. Many <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

preceding remarks on <strong>the</strong> scales <strong>of</strong> surface temperature variabi Iity extend to sub-surface<br />

levels. In addition, present evidence suggests that <strong>the</strong> amplitude!<strong>of</strong> temperature anomalies<br />

in <strong>the</strong> ocean decreases with depth and that <strong>the</strong>se features are conf i ned to <strong>the</strong> upper few<br />

hundred meters, down to and including <strong>the</strong> main pycnocl ine. On <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r hand variabi lity<br />

due to meso-scale circulation features (<strong>of</strong> 200-500 km horizontal extent) becomes a progress­<br />

ively greater source <strong>of</strong> aliasing-type "noise" with increasing depth, especially in <strong>the</strong> main<br />

pycnocline. Recent evidence tends to suggest that meso-scale activity is geographically<br />

quite variable, tending to be oonfined to <strong>the</strong> vicinity <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> major current systems; <strong>the</strong><br />

greatest activity is associated with <strong>the</strong> domain <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> western boundary currents,<br />

but is by no means insignificant along <strong>the</strong> principal current axes <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> open ocean.<br />

The Stockholm <strong>report</strong> emphasizes <strong>the</strong> fact that our abi lity to estimate upper ocean<br />

heat content over basin-wide areas is "marred by aliasing associated with improperly resolved


JOC-XI I Report, Annex G, p. 26<br />

meso-scale and wave structures. Discussion <strong>of</strong> this probl·em was largely absent in sUbsequent<br />

<strong>report</strong>s (JOC-X and XI). The Boulder meeting in July 1975 re-emphasized, however, that this<br />

problem was <strong>of</strong> sufficient importance that it should be attacked using all possible means,<br />

even if <strong>the</strong> avai lable measurements were restricted in space and time.<br />

Efforts, ei<strong>the</strong>r in <strong>the</strong> planning stage, or actually underway are being pursued to<br />

augment <strong>the</strong> existing sub-surface temperature collection programmes in wel I chosen regions.<br />

One programme, within <strong>the</strong> NORPAX project, is attempting an intensive but regional Iy restricted<br />

study <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> sub-surface temperature field <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> north Pacific ocean, uti I izing 20 freighters,<br />

plus U.S. Navy aircraft. As a second approach, SCOR Working Group 48 is studying <strong>the</strong><br />

feasibility <strong>of</strong> using a carefully selected smallpercentage<strong>of</strong><strong>the</strong>world's.commercial shipping<br />

fleet to provide time series <strong>of</strong> expendable BT (XBT) data at a smal I ( 30) number <strong>of</strong> sites<br />

distributed at fi'xed geographical points, in <strong>the</strong> data-poor areas <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> world ocean. (It<br />

may be <strong>of</strong> additional interest to note that <strong>the</strong>se so-called "Phantom Wea<strong>the</strong>r Ships" sites<br />

are being studied also with a view toward producing radiosonde, solar radiation, I idar and<br />

o<strong>the</strong>r measurements to complement <strong>the</strong> XBT data.)<br />

The working group fur<strong>the</strong>r recognize that efforts currently being made to digitize<br />

and properly archive previously collected, but generally unavai lable BT data wi II add<br />

significantly to <strong>the</strong> holdings <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> World Data Centres; such efforts are strongly encouraged.<br />

3.5 Aerosol Processes and Minor Constituents <strong>of</strong> Importance for <strong>the</strong> Radiative<br />

Balance (C02, 03. aerosol, etc.)<br />

The Working Group noted that JOC-XI has taken action in <strong>the</strong> fur<strong>the</strong>r development<br />

<strong>of</strong> aerosol, carbon dioxi de and ozone programmes and fur<strong>the</strong>r discussion was <strong>the</strong>refore deferred.<br />

3.6 Non-i nstrumenta I Records<br />

The Laboratory for Tree Ring Research at Tucson, Arizona, is coordinating <strong>the</strong><br />

establishment <strong>of</strong> a global data bank for tree ring data. This data set can be supplemented<br />

with records from annually laminated lake sediments and annually laminated ice cores.<br />

Efforts to facilitate <strong>the</strong> coordination <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se efforts by <strong>the</strong> various nations should be<br />

supported.


JOC-XI I Report, Annex G, p. 28<br />

Ano<strong>the</strong>r way <strong>of</strong> estimating <strong>the</strong> quality <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> data set is to use simulated<br />

observations from an integration <strong>of</strong> a general circulation model. This procedure<br />

has been applied, for example, by Oort at <strong>the</strong> GFDL. Calculations <strong>of</strong> such quantities<br />

as <strong>the</strong> monthly mean standing eddy heat flux based on <strong>the</strong> complete set <strong>of</strong> simulated<br />

grid-point data and from analyses derived from <strong>the</strong> points corresponding to <strong>the</strong> actual<br />

radiosonde network show substantial differences, especially in <strong>the</strong> sou<strong>the</strong>rn hemisphere.<br />

As was po i nted out during <strong>the</strong> first meeti ng <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> ad-hoc Work ing Group on <strong>the</strong><br />

Global Data Base for Cl imate Studies (Boulder, 24-25 July), <strong>the</strong>re exist inconsistencies in<br />

<strong>the</strong> GPS No. 16 cl imate requirements and processing <strong>of</strong> raw data (Ic) during FGGE into a<br />

useful form (lie> may in many cases be premature. In particular, it is necessary that<br />

observations from satell ites be verified or compared with conventional or o<strong>the</strong>r independent<br />

observations where <strong>the</strong> error characteristics are known. The Group <strong>the</strong>refore suggests that<br />

a number <strong>of</strong> Ic satellite data sets should not be processed until a satisfactory determination<br />

has been made <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir utility for climate studies. Areas for such studies were identified<br />

by <strong>the</strong> Group, and are noted in <strong>the</strong> remainder <strong>of</strong> this section.<br />

Recommendati on:<br />

The horizontal distribution <strong>of</strong> expected erros in climatic statistics should be<br />

calculated for <strong>the</strong> principal cl imatic variables by means <strong>of</strong> optimum interpolation techniques.<br />

4.2 Net Radiation Budget<br />

The Group supported <strong>the</strong> desired higher resolution requirements suggested in GPS 16.<br />

It was <strong>the</strong>re assumed that observations from a number <strong>of</strong> satel I ites would be combined to<br />

produce <strong>the</strong>se determinations in order to account for diurnal variations. It was felt that<br />

al I avai lable satel Iite data - including, for example, those from reserach satell ites and<br />

from <strong>the</strong> U.S. Defense Mi Iitary Satel Iite Programme - should be employed.<br />

Recommendat ion:<br />

Studies should be initiated to develop and validate methods for determining net<br />

radiation budgets from multiple satel lite observations.<br />

4.3 Cloudiness<br />

It was noted that <strong>the</strong> definition <strong>of</strong> cloudiness for <strong>the</strong> purpose <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> cl imate data<br />

base is by no means clear. Fur<strong>the</strong>r study is needed to evolve <strong>the</strong> definition most useful<br />

for cl imate research.


JOC-XII Report, Annex G, p. 30<br />

It was noted that determination <strong>of</strong> areally averaged data over land from an irregular<br />

network <strong>of</strong> observations also presented significant problems. Studies are needed to determine to<br />

what extent avai lable point observations are representative <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> space-time average desired.<br />

Recommendation:<br />

Special val idation programmes should be conducted to val idate and cal ibrate preci­<br />

pitation estimates derived from satel Iite microwave data, and to determine optimum methods<br />

for in ferri ng space-time averages. from poi nt observati ons from Iand stati ons.<br />

4.7 Soi I Moisture<br />

The techniques proposed for detection <strong>of</strong> changes in soi I moisture clearly require<br />

much fur<strong>the</strong>r elaboration. Some research on this problem has been done by <strong>the</strong> U.S. Department<br />

<strong>of</strong> Oefense and o<strong>the</strong>r agencies for <strong>the</strong> purpose <strong>of</strong> estimating soi I trafficabi lity and agri­<br />

cultural production potential.<br />

Recommendation:<br />

A survey <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> capabi Iities <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se techniques should be made, perhaps by a<br />

consultant. Comparison using surface observations <strong>of</strong> soi I moisture should be made to<br />

establ ish "Ground truth".<br />

4.8 Sea Surface Temperature<br />

Estimates <strong>of</strong> sea surface temperature are now being produced operationally each<br />

day by <strong>the</strong> U.S. National Environmental Satell ite Service, on a global basis. These esti­<br />

mates are based strictly on infrared radiometry data from polar orbiting satel Iites. The<br />

procedures involved in pro"duction <strong>of</strong> this field, which is called GOSSTCOMP, have been<br />

descrl bed by Lease.<br />

The useful working accuracy <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se estimates is at present not clearly known.<br />

Over <strong>the</strong> next few months R. Bernstein (Scripps) wi I I be producing some objective maps (and<br />

<strong>the</strong>ir attendant error maps) from <strong>the</strong> GOSSTCOMP data over <strong>the</strong> mid-latitude North Pacific.<br />

Simi lar maps wi I I also be produced from ships' surface temperature over <strong>the</strong> region using<br />

identical mapping procedures.


JOC-XI I Report, Annex G, p. 32<br />

characters in length. If short logical records are <strong>of</strong> widely variable lengths, <strong>the</strong>n a varia­<br />

ble length blocking scheme should be used to conserve storage space. In such a variable<br />

blocking scheme, <strong>the</strong> first characters (or bits) <strong>of</strong> each <strong>report</strong> are used to give <strong>the</strong> length<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>report</strong>. The blocks <strong>of</strong> data (physical records) may be left with variable lengths or<br />

be padded so that <strong>the</strong>y are <strong>of</strong> equal size. Very long logical records should be segmented so<br />

that each seation is not more than 6000 characters in length. Some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> sets <strong>of</strong> data,<br />

such as satel Iite data and most grid point analyses, wi I I only be avai lable in binary packed<br />

form. Computer routines and concepts are avai lable which make <strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong> binary data very<br />

easy on most machines. The floating-point word structur-e <strong>of</strong> anyone computer should gener­<br />

ally not be used for data exchange. When selecting a data format, several different formats<br />

should be considered so that <strong>the</strong> relative data volume, computer time and complexity for each<br />

possible choice can be evaluated. A format should clearly distinguish, for example, between<br />

no rain and rainfal I not <strong>report</strong>ed.<br />

Observations <strong>of</strong> a given type should normally be in a common format in <strong>the</strong> final<br />

data set. If data exchange between several organizations or countries is involved, one<br />

should consider <strong>the</strong> amount <strong>of</strong> time necessary to define common formats and <strong>the</strong> relatively<br />

smal I amount <strong>of</strong> time necessary to reformat <strong>the</strong> data. It is usually more important to specify<br />

<strong>the</strong> parameters and <strong>the</strong>ir precision ra<strong>the</strong>r than <strong>the</strong> exact format. For long-term programmes,<br />

involving <strong>the</strong> sharing <strong>of</strong> data between many centres, common formats can save much effort and<br />

can avoid <strong>the</strong> possibi Iity <strong>of</strong> introducing errors during format conversion. For at least<br />

several years <strong>the</strong> most common tape standards for <strong>the</strong> exchange <strong>of</strong> data wi I I be 7-channel<br />

800 BPI or 9-channel 1600 BPI, tapes t inch wide. The use <strong>of</strong> 7-channel tapes wi I I continue<br />

to decrease compared to 9-channel. Data sets should normally consist <strong>of</strong> one type <strong>of</strong><br />

observational <strong>report</strong> <strong>of</strong> a group <strong>of</strong> such <strong>report</strong>s that are likely to be used toge<strong>the</strong>r. Thus<br />

data in <strong>the</strong> surface synoptic code wi I I be stored toge<strong>the</strong>r. Rawinsonde data wi I I be in a<br />

set. Ano<strong>the</strong>r set might include a combination <strong>of</strong> al I upper air observed data, which thus<br />

wi II include rawinsondes, aircraft winds, winds from cloud drifts seen by satellites, etc.<br />

5.3 Qual ity Control<br />

Checks should be made on data sets to ensure reasonable quality. Thus rawinsonde<br />

data can be checked for internal hydrostatic consistency. Ship tracks can be checked for<br />

reasonable continuity so that a sudden jump in position can be spotted. Checks for reason­<br />

able continuity can also be made on o<strong>the</strong>r data.


JOG-XI I Report, AnnexG, p. 33<br />

The use <strong>of</strong> a data.set for <strong>the</strong> calculation <strong>of</strong> statistics or for o<strong>the</strong>r scien­<br />

tific calculations <strong>of</strong>ten helps to uncover problems in <strong>the</strong> data.<br />

5.4 Updating<br />

It shou Id be easy for custome rs <strong>of</strong> a data set to update <strong>the</strong> i r own set w,i thout<br />

obtaining <strong>the</strong> whole set. Thus, for example, with time series <strong>of</strong> station data <strong>the</strong>re should<br />

be some tapes with updates <strong>of</strong> al I stations for <strong>the</strong> last few months <strong>of</strong> data, and o<strong>the</strong>r tapes<br />

with blocks <strong>of</strong> data for <strong>the</strong> previous one-, two-, or three-year period.<br />

In some data sets, such as historical surface ship data, both old and new<br />

ship logs are <strong>of</strong>ten being punched. All <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> newly prepared data should be specified<br />

period <strong>of</strong> time.<br />

5.5 Sort Order <strong>of</strong> Data Sets<br />

For efficiency <strong>of</strong> data use, a number <strong>of</strong> data sets wi I I have to be saved in<br />

both "synoptic" sort and in time-series sort by stations. These are needed to serve <strong>the</strong><br />

two types <strong>of</strong> uses in which one person needs al I <strong>report</strong>s over a wide area on one day, whi le<br />

ano<strong>the</strong>r needs to study ten years <strong>of</strong> data from a station. However, <strong>the</strong> group creating a<br />

data set should concentrate on creating <strong>the</strong> set in one <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> two sort orders. The intro­<br />

duction <strong>of</strong> mass storage technology into major data centres and computing centres wi I I make<br />

it easier for <strong>the</strong>m to create <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r sort order.<br />

5.6 Station Library Data<br />

station histories for al I global stations should be made avai lab le. For<br />

example, with rawinsonde data, this should at least include location, elevation, and<br />

instrument type as a function <strong>of</strong> time. Key portions <strong>of</strong> station histories should be avai la­<br />

ble on magnetic tape; this would include <strong>the</strong> data mentioned plus <strong>the</strong> types <strong>of</strong> observations<br />

taken at <strong>the</strong> station, cross references between <strong>the</strong> different station numbering schemes that<br />

were used for <strong>the</strong> station, and o<strong>the</strong>r information. In current station library tapes, one<br />

should be able to distinguish between actual station changes and errors that have been<br />

corrected. It would also help if <strong>the</strong> station libraries distinguished between stations with<br />

good exposure and negl igible city effects (thus good benchmark stations) and stations that<br />

are affected to differing extents.


JOC-XI I Report, Annex G, p. 36<br />

6. PRACT rCAL ARRANGEMENTS<br />

6.1 General Comments<br />

As implied in Section 2 above, <strong>the</strong> Group believes that <strong>the</strong> highest priority near­<br />

term task is to create a "Category 2" data base for <strong>the</strong> 1970-1980 period, supplemented by<br />

a much less complete "Category 3" data base extending back to 1960. This data base need<br />

not exist as a physical collection <strong>of</strong> tapes at anyone location. Indeed, methods for<br />

interpreting, processing and storing <strong>the</strong> data - particularly remotely sensed data - are<br />

rapidly evolving, and it appears best that <strong>the</strong> data sets remain in <strong>the</strong> hands <strong>of</strong> specialized<br />

expert groups wh ich can properl y care for <strong>the</strong>m, update <strong>the</strong>m, and certi fy <strong>the</strong>i r accuracy.<br />

The GARP Global Data Base for Cl imate Research should <strong>the</strong>refore be, at least<br />

initially, a virtual data base distributed among a number <strong>of</strong> institutions in various<br />

countries, each <strong>of</strong> which would take responsibil ity for maintaining orderly, complete, accu­<br />

rate and accesible data sets for particular quantities, guided (for example) <strong>the</strong> principles<br />

noted in Section 5 above. These individual data sets would be integrated into a unified<br />

GARP Global Data Base by means <strong>of</strong> <strong>joint</strong> agreements on data set content, format, resolution<br />

and accessibi lity. The primary physical implementation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Global Data Base would <strong>the</strong>n<br />

be a catalogue which would enable <strong>the</strong> user to gain access to <strong>the</strong> elements <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> data base<br />

most suitable for his needs. At some later time, when data sources and processing techniques<br />

have stabi Iited, centralized data handl ing and storage analogous to <strong>the</strong> FGGE Level II-b<br />

centre may be desirable and feasible.<br />

A number <strong>of</strong> surveys <strong>of</strong> meteorological data resources have a.lready been made. The<br />

WMO, for example, has prepared a Catalogue <strong>of</strong> Meteorological Data for Research (WMO No. 174,<br />

TP88). At NCAR, R.L. Jenne has developed an annotated inventory <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> principal data sets<br />

in <strong>the</strong> United States. Catalogues <strong>of</strong> avai lable meteorological, hydrological and oceanographic<br />

data sets also exist at o<strong>the</strong>r institutions in some o<strong>the</strong>r countries. Fur<strong>the</strong>r work <strong>of</strong> this<br />

nature is clearly desirable.<br />

For <strong>the</strong> immediate purposes <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> GARP Global Data Set, however, it is necessary<br />

that a fairly smal I selection <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> most important data sets be identified and that action<br />

be initiated to fi I I gaps, reprocess data into more usable format, etc. The resulting<br />

catalogue should thus be fairly smal I (say 75-100 pages).


JOC-XI I Report, Annex G, p. 37<br />

6.2 Cata Iogue <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>· GARP Global Data Base for Cl imate Mode I ling Resea rch<br />

The catalogue suggested above could be organized as given in <strong>the</strong> Appendix.<br />

6.3 Management and Institutional Arrangements<br />

Development and maintenance <strong>of</strong> this distributed data base cannot be accompl ished<br />

in a single effort. In an environment <strong>of</strong> continual change in instrumentation, processing<br />

techniques, storage media, etc. continuing work by an expert group with some continuity wi 1I<br />

be required. This group should consist primari'ly <strong>of</strong> experts in <strong>the</strong> data sources and<br />

observing techniques needed to assemble <strong>the</strong> data base, but should also be closely coupled<br />

to <strong>the</strong> cl imate model I ing community. It is <strong>the</strong>refore proposed that a smal I Steering Group<br />

be establ ished under <strong>the</strong> aegis <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> WGNE to develop <strong>the</strong> Global Data Base.<br />

The Group would have <strong>the</strong> following responsibi I ities:<br />

Review potential sources <strong>of</strong> data for cl imatic research and evaluate <strong>the</strong>m in<br />

terms <strong>of</strong> qual ity and suitabi Iity for <strong>the</strong> purposes <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Programme.<br />

- Where necessary, identify to cooperating institutions <strong>the</strong> data collection, pro­<br />

cessing, or re-formatting needed to qualify selected data sets for inclusion<br />

in <strong>the</strong> GARP Global Data Set.<br />

- Prepare and mai ntain <strong>the</strong> GARP Global Data Set Catalogue.<br />

7. SUMMARY OF PRINCIPAL RECOMMENDATIONS<br />

7. I General Recommendations<br />

A GARP Global Data Base for Cl imate Model ling Research should be created,<br />

consisting <strong>of</strong> specified data sets physically residing at various national institutions,<br />

but coordinated and made accessible for use through <strong>the</strong> medium <strong>of</strong> a centrally prepared<br />

Catalogue. The Data Base should concentrate on <strong>the</strong> 1970-1980 period for which· assembly <strong>of</strong><br />

global data for most important variables is possible. A standing Steering Group with close<br />

ties to <strong>the</strong> WGNE should be responsible for <strong>the</strong> development <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Global Data Base and its<br />

assoc iated Cata Iogue·,


JOC-XI I Report, Annex G, p. 38<br />

7.2 Principal Implementation Steps for Specific Elements <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Global Data Base<br />

Section <strong>of</strong><br />

Report<br />

3.1.1<br />

3.3<br />

3.1.3<br />

3.1.3<br />

3.1.4<br />

3.2. I<br />

3.2.2<br />

3.3<br />

3.3<br />

3.3<br />

3.3<br />

Recommendati on Coord i nati ng<br />

Responsible Agency<br />

Records <strong>of</strong> upper-air and surface station data should WMO<br />

be completed and data exchanged on computer-readable<br />

form.<br />

Improvements in observational coverage over <strong>the</strong><br />

sou<strong>the</strong>rn hemisphere are needed.<br />

Comparisons between data sets, and exploration <strong>of</strong><br />

new methods for creating compact and homogeneous<br />

sets <strong>of</strong> analyses are needed.<br />

Monthly mean s-tratospheric analyses based on SCR<br />

measurements be made for <strong>the</strong> enti re peri od <strong>of</strong> record.<br />

Conti nuous and homogeneous measurements <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

solar maps <strong>of</strong> global radiation balance are required.<br />

If <strong>the</strong> value <strong>of</strong> currently prepared cloud analyses is<br />

assessed to be sati sfactory, arrangements shou I d be<br />

made for it to be archived and made available to<br />

research users in conven-ient for"m,<br />

Monthly mean global distdbution <strong>of</strong> snow and ice<br />

cover shoul d be cbnti nued and extended.<br />

Soil moisture data should hei nel uded in SYNOP<br />

messages.<br />

Surface radiation budget data should be collected<br />

and eXChanged.<br />

Precipitation average from cl imatological stations<br />

shoul


I. General introduction<br />

TENTATIVE OUTLINE OF GARP GLOBAL DATA BASE CATALOGUE<br />

Purpose <strong>of</strong> document<br />

Ph i losophy<br />

Instructions for use<br />

2. Data Source<br />

JOC-XI I Report, ANNEX G, APPENDIX<br />

This section wi II Iist for each parameter a carefully selected group <strong>of</strong> sources<br />

<strong>of</strong> good qual ity data in computer readable form. Both point data (Level 11) and<br />

analysed field data (Level I I I) wi I I be catalogued.<br />

2. I Sets <strong>of</strong> Point Observations with Global or Hemispheric Coverage<br />

This wi I I include checked and decoded conventional observations and special cl imatic<br />

data having global or hemispheric coverage for <strong>the</strong> variables I isted below. Emphasis<br />

would be placed on <strong>the</strong> "Category 2" period (1970-1980).<br />

- atmospheric parameters (WWW network and FGGE Special Observing Systems)<br />

- snow and ice data<br />

- precipitation<br />

- soi I moisiture<br />

- surface albedo<br />

- radiation data<br />

- sea-surface temperature<br />

sub-surface temperature data in <strong>the</strong> upper layers <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> ocean.<br />

2.2 Climatic Parameters<br />

This would include data needed for long-term survei I lance <strong>of</strong> slowly varying ele­<br />

ments <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere-cloud system. These data would princi­<br />

pally consist <strong>of</strong> long-term point records <strong>of</strong> such parameters as


JOC-XII Report, Annex H, p. 8<br />

(e) Ship-based experiments al low 'Lagrangian' studies whereby a particular<br />

cloud field can be tracked through an experimental period. Both<br />

'Lagrangian' and 'Eulerian' experiments should be attempted. Some<br />

overland 'Eulerian' experiments should be planned as a fol low-up to<br />

<strong>the</strong> oversea work - as an aid to <strong>the</strong> ultimate parameterization <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

system in terms <strong>of</strong> surface fluxes. The time variabi I ity <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se<br />

fluxes over land <strong>the</strong>n becomes an advantage.<br />

2. Experimental Sites<br />

(a) The major differences in cloud type arise from differences in (a)<br />

inversion character and <strong>the</strong> relative dryness <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> air above <strong>the</strong><br />

inversion; (b) <strong>the</strong> magnitude <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> surface fluxes and Bowen ratio<br />

(i .e. surface temperature); and (c) cloud temperature and whe<strong>the</strong>r<br />

it is ice or water (i.e. its rad iat ive character). It is <strong>the</strong>refore<br />

desirable to conduct experiments covering at least <strong>the</strong> range from<br />

sub-tropical trade-wind stratocumulus through mid-latitude to Arctic<br />

stratus.<br />

(b) The major restriction on sites is <strong>the</strong> necessity for an airfield<br />

sufficiently close for <strong>the</strong> chosen aircraft to have at least 3 hours<br />

operational time at <strong>the</strong> experiment.<br />

3. Measurements reguired<br />

I.<br />

2.<br />

3.<br />

4.<br />

5.<br />

6.<br />

7.<br />

8.<br />

9.<br />

10.<br />

11.<br />

12.<br />

13.<br />

Surface fluxes (LE and H)<br />

PBL convergence<br />

Surface Radiative Temperature<br />

TO and T pr<strong>of</strong>i le to 10 km<br />

W<br />

Average Cloud tota I I iqu id water


JOC-XI I Report, Annex H, p. I I<br />

(c) The central problem is to establ ish how (if?) it is possible to<br />

treat highly variable and perhaps convective (radiatively warmed as<br />

opposed to radiatively cooled?) cirrus in terms <strong>of</strong> a layer. It is<br />

natural <strong>the</strong>refore to centre measurement attention on <strong>the</strong> macroscopic<br />

behaviour cel I structure and <strong>the</strong> radiative parameterization on that<br />

scale. The most practical method <strong>of</strong> defining cel I structure and <strong>the</strong><br />

macroscopics <strong>of</strong> high cloud is with ground based Iidars. These­<br />

toge<strong>the</strong>r with ground-based narrow beam IR radiometers, a single air­<br />

craft to measure radiative fluxes at cloud height and <strong>the</strong> relevant<br />

cloud microphysics (LWC and OSO), satel lite coverage t and suitable<br />

radiosondings and wind-finding to give overal I convergence on<br />

(approximately) a 100 x 100 km scale - should be sufficient for<br />

initial parameterization. In terms <strong>of</strong> cl imate mode-I I ing, <strong>the</strong> immediate<br />

goal is to parameterize <strong>the</strong> overal I flux emissivity <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> cloud<br />

layer (??) and its short-wave albedo and absorption in terms <strong>of</strong> general<br />

meteorology.<br />

2. Experimental Sites;<br />

(a) The experiments can be land-based if desired. since <strong>the</strong>y are strictly<br />

Eulerian and since surface fluxes are relatively unimportant. Land­<br />

based experiments would be preferable for <strong>the</strong> frontal and jet stream<br />

studies (see below) since <strong>the</strong> experiment can be embedded in a region<br />

where <strong>the</strong> GARP grid-scale meteorology is already avai lable.<br />

(b) Cirrus and altostratus are formed in a great variety <strong>of</strong> meteorological<br />

situations. The problem is to cover <strong>the</strong> major situations bearing in<br />

mind that <strong>the</strong> experimental cloud fields must be fairly 'pure' from<br />

<strong>the</strong> radiation standpoint. Multi-layer cloud systems such as ones in<br />

tropical situations (e.g. GATE) would not be highly useful. As an<br />

initial programme. <strong>the</strong> experiments might concentrate (a) on <strong>the</strong> cirrus<br />

shields associated with isolated convection - common on <strong>the</strong> equator­<br />

ward side <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> sub-tropical high pressure belts; (b) on <strong>the</strong> cirrus<br />

and altostratus which is associated with <strong>the</strong> presence <strong>of</strong> both cold<br />

and warm fronts; and (c) on <strong>the</strong> cirrus associated with <strong>the</strong> equator­<br />

ward side <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> polar jets.<br />

3. Measurements reguired<br />

I. T d and T w pr<strong>of</strong>i les via radiosonde<br />

2. Convergence on (approx.) 100 x 100 km scale (see below)<br />

3. Continuous (i.e. I shot/minute ?) Iidar pr<strong>of</strong>i les <strong>of</strong> vertical<br />

back-scatter (and <strong>of</strong> polarization for isolating water and ice<br />

layers)


JOC-XI I Report, Annex H, p. 14<br />

2. that an extra ·aircraft be provided to monitor radiative<br />

properties (i.e. aircraft I <strong>of</strong> STRATEX I) on <strong>the</strong> scale appropriate<br />

to STRATEX I - purely on those stable days mentioned above<br />

3. that o<strong>the</strong>rwise <strong>the</strong> aircraft would be avai lable for <strong>the</strong> fur<strong>the</strong>rence<br />

<strong>of</strong> pure JASIN objectives.<br />

2. There are many aspects <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>GAAREXexperiment (suggested by Pr<strong>of</strong>essor<br />

Kondratyev) which are closely related to <strong>the</strong> objectives <strong>of</strong> both STRATEX I and I I.<br />

In particular, <strong>the</strong> Iidars and radiation aircraft which wi I I probably be required<br />

for GAAREXaerosol pr<strong>of</strong>i le studies would be compatible with STRATEX I I requirements.<br />

The connexion between <strong>the</strong> two programmes should be exploited to <strong>the</strong> ful I - with,<br />

however, due regard to priorities for a particular experiment. Compromise in <strong>the</strong><br />

programme for STRATEX is not usually an option.


*<br />

JOC-XII Report, Annex H, p. 17<br />

e) restriction (primari Iy) to total cloud cover<br />

f) lack <strong>of</strong> information on cloud type.<br />

A number <strong>of</strong> refinements are possible e.g. multi-wavelength observation, polariza­<br />

tion measurements and some degree <strong>of</strong> stereoscopy using radiances measured at succes­<br />

sive times on <strong>the</strong> same orbit. The various refinements (which lead to more informa­<br />

tion on cloud height and character) must rely very heavi lyon <strong>the</strong> val idity <strong>of</strong> any<br />

associated "cloud truth" programme.<br />

Techniques which monitor <strong>the</strong> upwel ling IR radiance in <strong>the</strong> atmospheric<br />

window(s) are more flexible and are more directly related to <strong>the</strong> radiative cool ing.<br />

Thus it is possible by assigning pre-flxed values <strong>of</strong> emissivity (e.g. unity for<br />

low cloud and some lower value for higher cloud) to derive grid-point-average<br />

histograms <strong>of</strong> cloud amount versus height (i .e. temperature)*. The disadvantages<br />

are:<br />

a) <strong>the</strong> assumption <strong>of</strong> a given emissivity<br />

b) <strong>the</strong> assumptions regarding cloud overlap<br />

c) no thickness information<br />

d) no information on cloud type<br />

e) error in height associated with (a) and <strong>the</strong> inaccurately<br />

known temperature pr<strong>of</strong>i le<br />

f) restriction <strong>of</strong> data to midday and midnight (with present<br />

sate I lites)<br />

g) restricted resolution (to a few km).<br />

Again <strong>the</strong>re are a number <strong>of</strong> possible extensions to <strong>the</strong> basic vertical measurement<br />

at a single window wavelength. Thus measurement at 2 wavelengths (over which<br />

cloud emissivity does not vary significantly) al lows removal <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> requirement<br />

to assume a pre-fixed emissivity. This in turn leads to si ightly better cloud<br />

height values.<br />

Multi wavelength observations (both invisible and IR) can in principle<br />

give most <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> information relevant to <strong>the</strong> interim data set**. Again <strong>the</strong> essence<br />

K<strong>of</strong>fer et al., Monthly Wea<strong>the</strong>r Review 101 (3)1 p. 240, 1973<br />

** e.g. Conf. on Atmos. Radiation, Fort Col I ins, 1972 (AMS Publ.)


INTRODUCTION<br />

JOC-XI I Report, ANNEX I<br />

AEROSOL RESEARCH IN CONTEXT OF THE GARP CLIMATE DYNAMICS SUB-PROGRAMME<br />

When considering <strong>the</strong> plans for <strong>the</strong> GARP Cl imate Dynamics Sub-programme,<br />

JOC-XI decided that a programme for advancing knowledge <strong>of</strong> Atmosphere-Aerosol<br />

Dynamics be developed. This paper provides background to Aerosol Research in<br />

<strong>the</strong> context <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> GARPCI imateDynamics Sub-programme, and outl ines three steps<br />

to be taken before specification <strong>of</strong> extensive field experiments. These steps<br />

are appropriate for <strong>the</strong> Preparatory Phase <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> GARP Cl imate Dynamics Sub­<br />

programme.<br />

BACKGROUND DISCUSSION<br />

Two basic elements <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Cl imate Dynamics Sub-programme are relevant<br />

to <strong>the</strong> fomulation <strong>of</strong> proposals to study atmospheric aerosols. First, <strong>the</strong> time<br />

scale <strong>of</strong> aerosol residence times is squarely in <strong>the</strong> range <strong>of</strong> priority interest<br />

(i .e. months to several years). This means not only that <strong>the</strong> aerosol processes<br />

may be highly significant in <strong>the</strong> GARP context, but also that <strong>the</strong>y must be<br />

model led directly and not simply parameterized as sub-grid-scale in terms <strong>of</strong><br />

time. Second, <strong>the</strong> GARP concern is with model I ing itself so that observational<br />

programmes should be directed at studying processes - as opposed (for instance)<br />

to individual regional phenomena. A given observational programme might need<br />

to be carried out in a specific area, but only because that area provides a good<br />

platform for studying a particular process.<br />

A fur<strong>the</strong>r consideration is <strong>the</strong> capabi Iity <strong>of</strong> cl imate models. However<br />

desirable it may be, it is not really I ikely in <strong>the</strong> forseeable future that<br />

global models wi I I be able to incorporate more than a few individual aerosol<br />

processes. "Incorporation ll in this context means <strong>the</strong> mechanistic description<br />

<strong>of</strong> generation, dispersion and removal <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> aerosol type such that al I relevant<br />

feed backs from model behaviour are included.<br />

The initial GARP problem is <strong>the</strong>refore to select <strong>the</strong> very minimum<br />

number <strong>of</strong> aerosol types which:<br />

(a) may have a significant effect on cl imate ei<strong>the</strong>r via radiative modifica­<br />

tion or perhaps by modification <strong>of</strong> cloud;<br />

(b) may have distinct and identifyable sources and sinks on a scale which<br />

is relevant to, and can be handled by, cl imate models;


JOC-XII Report, ANNEX I, p. 2<br />

(c) when combined in a mode I, may produce an adequate simulation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

overa II mixture <strong>of</strong> aerosol types in <strong>the</strong> atmosphere and (more importantly)<br />

<strong>the</strong> time and space changes in that mixture.<br />

Having specified such a set <strong>of</strong> aerosol types, <strong>the</strong> obvious procedure is to study<br />

those types experimentally and in detai I in regions as pure as possible in <strong>the</strong><br />

sense that <strong>the</strong>y wi I I be regions where <strong>the</strong> complete cycle <strong>of</strong> generation and removal<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> one type is uncontaminated by <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>rs.<br />

The general monitoring <strong>of</strong> aerosols throughout <strong>the</strong> globe should be<br />

<strong>of</strong> no direct interest to GARP at this stage, except in that it helps to identify<br />

<strong>the</strong> most significant (and significantly variable) basic types <strong>of</strong> aerosols which<br />

could be regarded as "pure" examples <strong>of</strong> a species.<br />

Itv'MEDIATE PLANS<br />

In this preparatory phase <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> GARP Cl imate Dynamics Programme <strong>the</strong>re<br />

is <strong>the</strong> need for three distinct and successive steps:<br />

(I) To disti I I from <strong>the</strong> aerosol community a short catalogue <strong>of</strong> basic<br />

aerosol types which in <strong>the</strong>ir opinion are likely to be <strong>of</strong> significance<br />

to cl imate change on <strong>the</strong> time scale <strong>of</strong> priority (months to years).<br />

Such aerosol types wi I I probably be <strong>the</strong>mselves mixtures <strong>of</strong> aerosols,<br />

with <strong>the</strong> definition <strong>of</strong> a type based on source or effect ra<strong>the</strong>r than<br />

single chem1cal substance. This catalogue should contain, for pur­<br />

poses <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> next step, <strong>the</strong> I ikely or best guess optical characteristics<br />

<strong>of</strong> each type (average size distributions, refractive indices, number<br />

densities and broad geographical distributions).<br />

(2) To obtain from <strong>the</strong> radiation and/or numerical model I ing community<br />

a scale <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> I ikely relevant importance (to <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>rmodynamics <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> global system) <strong>of</strong> changes in <strong>the</strong> distribution <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> various<br />

aeroso I types nom inated instep I. Presumab Iy thi s wi I I invo Ive<br />

a specific series <strong>of</strong> numerical sensitivity studies. Some consider­<br />

able thought wi I I have to be given to defining a coherent measure<br />

<strong>of</strong> "importance".


COMMENTS ON THE WEST AFRICAN MONSOON STUDY<br />

by T. N. Kri shnamurti<br />

JOC-XI I Report, ANNEX J<br />

The West African Monsoon Study proposed for May, June, July and<br />

August 1979 is an important proposal. The proposed studies are in two areas,<br />

i.e. <strong>the</strong> planetary and a regional scale. The problem areas also include a<br />

description <strong>of</strong> some sub-regional components which are not to be part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> West<br />

African Monsoon Study - but one which wi I I be carried out by a select group <strong>of</strong><br />

individual scientists composed primari Iy <strong>of</strong> ASECNA and o<strong>the</strong>r regional groups.<br />

The two problem areas are very broadly defined and are to be regarded<br />

as a phenomenological proposal. The study, if implemented, can benefit <strong>the</strong><br />

overall FGGE effort in one important way: <strong>the</strong> participation <strong>of</strong>'a number <strong>of</strong><br />

West African countries assures some degree <strong>of</strong> interest and motivation to imple­<br />

ment <strong>the</strong> proposed WWW network during SOP I lover this region. In particular we<br />

see <strong>the</strong> possible improvement <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> network <strong>of</strong> upper-air stations in <strong>the</strong> lOOS to<br />

lOoN during this period. This is very desirable for <strong>the</strong> overall FGGE effort.<br />

Ano<strong>the</strong>r added benefit to FGGE from <strong>the</strong> proposed West African Monsoon<br />

Study would be <strong>the</strong> possible deployment <strong>of</strong> three research ships for this programme<br />

in <strong>the</strong> Gulf <strong>of</strong> Guinea. One additional dedicated FGGE ship is expected in this<br />

area (equatorial eastern Atlantic region) <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> West African monsoons. These<br />

four ships are currently identified as fol lows:<br />

(i) . FGGE Sh i p from France<br />

(i i) WAMEX ship from Nigeria<br />

(i i i) WAMEX ship from Ivory Coast<br />

(iv) WAMEX ship from France<br />

It is suggested here that <strong>the</strong> planning group <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> West African<br />

Monsoon Study take al I necessary steps to assure that <strong>the</strong>se WAMEX ships are<br />

firmly committed. It is also quite important that in <strong>the</strong> final deployment<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se ships in <strong>the</strong> equatorial belt, <strong>the</strong> locations are coordinated closely<br />

with <strong>the</strong> FGGE planners.


INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL OF<br />

SCIENTIFIC UNIONS<br />

THE GARP POLAR SUB-PROGRAMME<br />

REPORT OF THE JOC PLANNING MEETING ON<br />

THE GARP POLAR SUB-PROGRAMME<br />

(Toronto, 17-20 May 1976)<br />

Geneva, May 1976<br />

JOC-XI I Report, ANNEX K<br />

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL<br />

ORGANIZATION


JOC-XII Report, Annex K., p. 2<br />

TA:BLE OF CONTENTS<br />

1. ORGANIZATION OF THE MEETING ••••••••••••••••••••••••• 1<br />

2. REPORT OF THE CONSULTANT •.•••••••••••••••••••••••••• 1<br />

3. REVIEW OF THE NATIONAL PROGRAMMES IN THE POLAR<br />

REGIONS e et •••••••••••••• to ••••••••••••• ,) •• eo •••••••• 0 • 2<br />

4. FORMULATION OF A SCIENTIFIC PROGRAMME •••••••••.••••• 2<br />

5. FGGE-RELATED ACTIVITIES ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 4<br />

6. OTHER POLAR SUB-PROGRAMME ACTIVITIES •••••••••••••••• 7<br />

7. IMPLEMENTATION OF THE POLAR SUB-PROGRAMME ••••••••••• 8<br />

8. REPORT OF THE MEETING ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 9<br />

APPENDICES :<br />

A. LIST OF PARTICIPANTS<br />

ll. AGENDA<br />

C. NATIONAL CONTRIllUTIONS TO THE POLAR SUB-PROGRAMME AND POLEX


JOC-XI I Report, Annex K, p. 4<br />

2.2 The consultant was asked to revise <strong>the</strong> summary <strong>of</strong> his draft <strong>report</strong><br />

and also include <strong>the</strong> items from <strong>the</strong> USSR GARP National Committee Report<br />

which were identified as being appropriate. The consultant was asked to<br />

indicate to <strong>the</strong> JOC how <strong>the</strong> draft <strong>report</strong> would be structure in its final<br />

version so that <strong>the</strong>y could make a preliminary judgement about its ultimate<br />

publication and distribution as <strong>the</strong> basis for a long-term planning <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

GARP Polar SUb-programme.<br />

3. REVIEW OF THE NATIONAL PROGRAMMES IN THE POLAR REGIONS<br />

3.1 The meeting reviewed <strong>the</strong> background material that had been<br />

prepared by <strong>the</strong> consultant and <strong>the</strong> GARP Activities Office. It agreed<br />

that <strong>the</strong> stated plans for observational programmes in <strong>the</strong> polar regions<br />

came reasonably close to meeting <strong>the</strong> criteria for <strong>the</strong> polar experiment<br />

as defined by <strong>the</strong> JOC. It was agreed that only a few additional<br />

observations would be required along with increased attention to studies<br />

<strong>of</strong> some aspects <strong>of</strong> polar processes that are <strong>of</strong> importance in global models.<br />

These are specified in later section <strong>of</strong> this <strong>report</strong>.<br />

3.2 The consultant was requested to revise <strong>the</strong> Table which shows <strong>the</strong><br />

various national contributions to <strong>the</strong> Polar Sub-programme and POLEX. This<br />

reVision would be attached as AppendiX C to this <strong>report</strong> for JOC consideration.<br />

4. FORMULATION OF A SCIENTIFIC PROGRAMME<br />

4.1 The Polar Sub-programme is a regional and process-oriented<br />

contribution to GARP. It has two major objectives:<br />

(i) To identify and study those prooesses <strong>of</strong> partioular importanoe<br />

in <strong>the</strong> polar regions relating to <strong>the</strong> improvement <strong>of</strong> wea<strong>the</strong>r<br />

prediotion from general oiroulation models (GARP I);<br />

(ii) To develop a basis for understanding <strong>the</strong> role <strong>of</strong> ice in<br />

olimate dynamics through:<br />

(a) parameterization <strong>of</strong> sea ice dynamios and related<br />

atmospherio and ooeanio prooesses in climate models, and


JOC-X I I Report, Annex K, p. 7<br />

specified horizontal resolution for <strong>the</strong>se observations is 500 km. In <strong>the</strong><br />

polar regions, this roquirement can be met only by satellite sounding<br />

retrievals. The principles <strong>of</strong> satellite sounding retrieval in <strong>the</strong> infrared<br />

and microwave spectral regions are well established and are expected to<br />

yield useful results in all climatic regions. However, in <strong>the</strong> polar regions<br />

<strong>the</strong>re are special problems due to:<br />

5·3<br />

(i) Poorly understood properties <strong>of</strong> polar surfaces<br />

(variable age and structure <strong>of</strong> sea ice, stratigraphy <strong>of</strong> cold<br />

snow surfaces, free water content <strong>of</strong> wet snow pack) in <strong>the</strong><br />

microwave spectrum, and <strong>the</strong> effects <strong>of</strong> multi-layered stratuB<br />

clouds <strong>of</strong> small optical thickness in <strong>the</strong> infrared spectrum.<br />

(ii) Lack <strong>of</strong> data on surface pressure and temperature structure<br />

and effect <strong>of</strong> aerosols in <strong>the</strong> boundary layer.<br />

To overcome <strong>the</strong> problems outlined above, we recommend that:<br />

(1) Satellite Bounding retrieval techniques be developed for<br />

application in typical high-latitude situations and verified<br />

before <strong>the</strong> commencement <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> FGGE SOP I. This matter<br />

should be referred to an appropriate body such as COSPAR<br />

Working Group 6 for urgent coneideration. Radiation data<br />

collected during stratuB cloud experiments should be exploited<br />

where possible.<br />

(il) Data buoys be deployed on ice in <strong>the</strong> polar regions to obtain<br />

direct observations <strong>of</strong> surfaoe temperature and pressure. The<br />

spacing and sensor accuracy <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se buoys should conform<br />

with FGGE specifications. Existing data (SUCh as those taken<br />

during <strong>the</strong> AIDJEX aircraft experiments) should be examined to<br />

establish <strong>the</strong> degree <strong>of</strong> areal representativeness <strong>of</strong> singlepoint<br />

temperature measurements. For <strong>the</strong> most effective location<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se buoys <strong>the</strong> WG on Numerical Experimentation should be<br />

consulted.<br />

Mgdelling Ef.forts to Improve our Understanding <strong>of</strong> High-Latitude<br />

Processes for FGGE<br />

The meeting recommends:<br />

(i) Numerical studies <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> 'ffect <strong>of</strong> data deficiency in polar


JOC-X I I Report, Annex K, p. 10<br />

(iv)<br />

(v)<br />

(vi)<br />

(vii)<br />

The role <strong>of</strong> stratus in <strong>the</strong> Arctic energy budge,t (certai.n<br />

information needed for <strong>the</strong> FGGE, see para.5.5 above)<br />

The determination <strong>of</strong> sea/air energy exchanges over complex<br />

polar surfaces: mixed ice, polynyas, and leads<br />

The role <strong>of</strong> katabatic winds in <strong>the</strong> sou<strong>the</strong>rn hemisphere mass<br />

and energy budget and in coastal ice and sea dynamics<br />

Upper ocean mixed layer studies under ice.<br />

6.2 In <strong>the</strong> field <strong>of</strong> instrumentation for <strong>the</strong> Polar Sub-programme, <strong>the</strong><br />

meeting identified several unresolved problems and technical needs.<br />

(i) Problems<br />

(a) Riming - recommend intercomparison <strong>of</strong> techniques by<br />

appropriate WHO authority<br />

(b) Instrumental behaviour in super-cooled clouds needs<br />

fur<strong>the</strong>r study<br />

(ii) Technical Needs<br />

(a) Ocean current measurements under continuous and moving<br />

ice cover<br />

(b) Ocean salinity sensors for (a) long term moored<br />

measurements (at least one year) <strong>of</strong> accuracy at least<br />

O.Ol%,and (b) short term measurement by expendable<br />

bathysalinometers<br />

(c) Liquid water sensor for tenuous stratiform clouds.<br />

1. IMPLEMENTATION OF THE POLAR SUl3-PROGRAMME<br />

1.1 In order to implement <strong>the</strong> Polar Sub-programme, we recommend that <strong>the</strong><br />

JOC establish a special working group. It should have representation from all<br />

<strong>the</strong> countries with a Polar Sub-programme activity and a membership which is<br />

representative <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> scientific problem areas encompassed by <strong>the</strong> Polar Sub­<br />

programme. The main tasks <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> group woud be to:


JOC-XI I Report, Annex K, p. I I<br />

(i) Facilitate international coordination and communication for<br />

(ii)<br />

(iii)<br />

<strong>the</strong> Polar Sub-programme<br />

Establish specifications for various polar data sets<br />

Recommend appropriate means for storage and dissemination <strong>of</strong><br />

polar data.<br />

7.2 Bach <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se tasks is to be carried outin <strong>the</strong> context <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> JOC<br />

Polar Sub-programme <strong>report</strong> and in liaison as required with <strong>the</strong> appropriate<br />

sub-groups <strong>of</strong>, e.g., ICPM, SCAR and SCOR.<br />

7.3 It is expected that <strong>the</strong> international coordination and management<br />

for POLEX will be carried within <strong>the</strong> context <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> overall FGGE planning<br />

and coordination (JOC and Inter-governmental FGGE Panel).<br />

8. REPORT OF THE MEETING<br />

8.1 The GARP Activities Office was requested to complete <strong>the</strong> editorial<br />

review <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> approved repprt <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> meeting, including th. approved Appendix<br />

that was to be provided by <strong>the</strong> consultant, and see to its distribution to <strong>the</strong><br />

participants, <strong>the</strong> JOC, <strong>the</strong> WMO Inter-governmental PCGE Panel, and o<strong>the</strong>r<br />

interested bodies such as ICPM, SCAR, national GARP <strong>committee</strong>s, etc.


JOC-XI I Report, Annex K, ADoendix A, p, 2<br />

Gordon McBean<br />

E. Paul McClain<br />

S. Orvig<br />

E. Raschke<br />

E. F. Roots<br />

M.J. Rubin<br />

(Representing JPS and SCAR)<br />

Albert Semtner<br />

Address<br />

Atmospheric Environment Service,<br />

4905 Dui'ferin Street,<br />

Downsview, Ontario, M3H 5T4,<br />

Canada.<br />

Environmental Sciences Group,<br />

National Environmental Satellite<br />

SerVice/NOli<br />

Washington D.C. 20233<br />

U.S.A.<br />

Department <strong>of</strong> Meteorology,<br />

McGill University,<br />

Montreal 110, P.Q.,<br />

Canada.<br />

Institut fur Geophysik und Meteorologie,<br />

Kerpener Str. 13,<br />

5000 Koln 41,<br />

Federal Republic <strong>of</strong> Germany.<br />

Department <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Environment<br />

Ottawa, Ontario, KIA OH3<br />

Canada<br />

GARP Activities Orfice,<br />

WHO Secretariat<br />

Case Postale 5,<br />

CH-121l, Geneva 20,<br />

Switzerland.<br />

Ocean Dynamios Group<br />

National Centre for Atmospheric Researoh,<br />

Boulder, Colorado 80303,<br />

U. S.A.


!!!!!<br />

R.W. stewart<br />

(Chairman)<br />

L.A. Timokhov<br />

Norbert Untersteiner<br />

T. Vinje<br />

JOC-XI I Report, Annex K, Appendix A, p. 3<br />

Address<br />

Ooean and Aquatio Affairs,<br />

Department <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Environment,<br />

5th Floor,<br />

1230 Government street,<br />

Victoria, B.C. V8W lY4,<br />

Canada.<br />

Artic Antarctic Research Institute,<br />

34, Fortanlea,<br />

Leningrad, 192109,<br />

USSR.<br />

Department <strong>of</strong> Atmospheric Sciences,<br />

University <strong>of</strong> Washington,<br />

Seattle, Washington 98195,<br />

U. S.A.<br />

Norsk Polarinstitutt,<br />

Rolfstangv 12,<br />

P. O. Box 158,<br />

N-1330 Oslo Lufthavn, Norway.


1. ORGANIZATION OF THE MEETING<br />

2. SCOPE OF THE MEETING<br />

3. REPORT OF THE JOC CONSULTANT<br />

4. REVIEW OF THE NATIONAL PROGRAMMES IN POLAR REGIONS<br />

5. FORMULATION OF A SCIENTIFIC PROGRAMME FOR POLEX<br />

6. OBSERVATIONAL PROGRAMMES<br />

7. NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTATION<br />

8. RECOMMENDED GARP POLAR EXPERIMENT<br />

JOC-XI I Report, ANNEX K, APPENDIX 8


GARP IMPLEMENTATION FWND<br />

BUDGET FOR 1977<br />

(in US dollars)<br />

JOC-XI I Report, ANNEX L, APPENDI X A<br />

REVENUE 1977 EXPENDITURE. 1977 ANTICIPATED<br />

TOTAL<br />

EXPENDITURE<br />

1976<br />

$ $ $<br />

Contribution 84,400 I Joint GARP 163,800 146,000<br />

from WMO Organizing<br />

Committee<br />

Contribution 84,400 Il Administrative 4,000 3,000<br />

from ICSU and Common<br />

Services<br />

REVENUE<br />

Contribution<br />

from WMO<br />

Contribution<br />

from ICSU<br />

168,800<br />

=======<br />

III O<strong>the</strong>r budgetary 1,000 1,000<br />

provisions<br />

168,800<br />

=======<br />

SUPPLEMENTARY ESTIMATES FOR 1976<br />

(in US dollars)<br />

1976 EXPENDITURE 1976<br />

$ $<br />

9,500 Joint GARP<br />

Organizing<br />

Committee<br />

9,500 I B.l 19,000<br />

Joint Planning<br />

Staff<br />

19,000 19,000<br />

======<br />

======<br />

150,000<br />

=======


JOC-XI I Report, ANNEX L, APPENDIX B<br />

DETAILED BREAKDOWN OF THE ESTIMATED EXPENDITURE FOR<br />

I. Joint GARP Organizing Committee<br />

A Meetings<br />

A.l Sessions <strong>of</strong> JOC<br />

A.2 Sessions <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Officers<br />

B Personnel<br />

B.l Joint Planning Staff<br />

B.2 Travel<br />

THE YEAR 1977<br />

C Consultants, Study and Working Groups<br />

E Publications<br />

F Temporary Staff<br />

11. Administrative and Common Services<br />

A Reproduction <strong>of</strong> documents<br />

B Stationery, <strong>of</strong>fice supplies<br />

C Office equipment and machines<br />

1977<br />

20,000<br />

2,000<br />

133,300<br />

8,500<br />

*(12,000)<br />

* (8,000)<br />

* (5,000)<br />

D Communications 4,000<br />

E Premises<br />

F Hospitality<br />

Ill. O<strong>the</strong>r budgetary provisions<br />

A Contingencies and unforeseen expenditures<br />

B<br />

C<br />

External Audit<br />

Insurances and Staff Compensation Fund<br />

100<br />

900<br />

$ 168,800<br />

=========<br />

* These figures are for information only; if necessary, supplementary support from<br />

WMO <strong>of</strong> $25,000 (approved by EC-XXVIII) would cover <strong>the</strong>se items.


GARP PUBLICATIONS SERIES<br />

No. 1 An Introduction to GARP<br />

No. 2 COSPAR Working Group VI Report to JOC -Systems Possibilities for an Early GARP Experiment<br />

(out <strong>of</strong> print)<br />

No. 3 The Planning <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> First GARP Global Experiment (out <strong>of</strong> print)<br />

No. 4 The Planning <strong>of</strong> GARP Tropical Experiments (out <strong>of</strong> print)<br />

No. 5 Problems <strong>of</strong> Atmospheric Radiation in GARP<br />

No. 6 Numerical Experimentation Related to GARP<br />

No. 7 The GARP Programme on Numerical Experimentation<br />

No. 8 Parameterization <strong>of</strong> Sub-Grid Scale Processes<br />

No. 9 The Basic Data Set Project<br />

No. 10 Methods for <strong>the</strong> Approximate Solution <strong>of</strong> Time-Dependent Problems<br />

No. 11 The First GARP Global Experiment - Objectives and Plans<br />

No. 12 The Complete Atmospheric Energetics Experiment (CAENEX)<br />

No.13 The Air Mass Transformation Experiment (AMTEX)<br />

No. 14 Modelling for <strong>the</strong> First GARP Global Experiment<br />

No. 15 Four-Dimensional Assimilation <strong>of</strong> Meteorological Observations<br />

No. 16 The Physical Basis <strong>of</strong> Climate and Climate Modelling<br />

No. 17 Numerical Methods Used in Atmospheric Models (in preparation)<br />

GARP SPECIAL REPORTS<br />

No. 1 Report <strong>of</strong> Planning Conference on GARP - Brussels, March 1970<br />

No. 2 Report <strong>of</strong> Interim Planning Group on GARP Tropical Experiment in <strong>the</strong> Atlantic - London, July 1970<br />

No. 3 Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> First Session <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Tropical Experiment Council- Geneva, February 1971<br />

No. 4 Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> First Session <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Tropical Experiment Board - Geneva, February 1971<br />

No. 5 Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Second Session <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Tropical Experiment Board - Geneva, December 1971<br />

No. 6 Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Third Session <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Tropical Experiment Board - Geneva, April 1972 (out <strong>of</strong> print)<br />

No. 7 Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Second Session <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Tropical Experiment Council- Geneva, September 1972<br />

No. 8 Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Planning Conference on <strong>the</strong> First GARP Global Experiment - Geneva, September 1972<br />

No. 9 Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Fourth Session <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Tropical Experiment Board - Geneva, March 1973 (out <strong>of</strong> print)<br />

No. 10 Report on Special Observing Systems for <strong>the</strong> First GARP Global Experiment - Geneva, February 1973<br />

No. 11 Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Fifth Session <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Tropical Experiment Board - Geneva, December 1973<br />

No. 12 Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Sixth Session <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Tropical Experiment Board - Geneva, April 1974<br />

No. 13 Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Meeting on Drifting Buoys for <strong>the</strong> First GARP Global Experiment-Geneva, March 1974<br />

No. 14 Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> First Session <strong>of</strong>WMO Executive Committee Inter-Governmental Panel on <strong>the</strong> First GARP<br />

Global Experiment - Geneva, October 1974<br />

No. 15 Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Seventh Session <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Tropical Experiment Board - Geneva, February 1975<br />

No. 16 Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Meeting <strong>of</strong> Experts for <strong>the</strong> Development <strong>of</strong> a Data Management Plan for <strong>the</strong> FGGE ­<br />

Washington, April 1975<br />

No. 17 Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Second Session <strong>of</strong> WMO Executive Committee Inter-Governmental Panel on <strong>the</strong> First<br />

GARP Global Experiment - Geneva, September 1975 (in preparation)<br />

No. 18 Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Inter-Governmental Planning Meeting for <strong>the</strong> First GARP Global Experiment - Geneva,<br />

February 1976<br />

No. 19 Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Extraordinary Session <strong>of</strong> WMO Executive Committee Inter-Governmental Panel on <strong>the</strong><br />

First GARP Global Experiment - Geneva, February 1976<br />

No. 20 Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Eighth Session <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Tropical Experiment Board - Geneva, May 1976<br />

No. 21 Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Planning Meeting for <strong>the</strong> Monsoon-77 Experiment - Colombo, Sri Lanka, May 1976<br />

No.22 Report <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Third Session <strong>of</strong>WMO Executive Committee Inter-Governmental Panel on <strong>the</strong> First GARP<br />

Global Experiment - Geneva, July 1976<br />

By arrangement between ICSU and WMO, <strong>the</strong>se<br />

publications are on sale and copies can be obtained<br />

from <strong>the</strong> Secretariat <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> World Meteorological<br />

Organization, Case postale No. 5, CH-1211 Geneva 20,<br />

Switzerland..


GATE REPORTS<br />

No. 1 Experiment Design Proposal for <strong>the</strong> GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment<br />

No. 2 Pre-GATE Tests and Studies<br />

No. 3 The Central Programme for <strong>the</strong> GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment<br />

No. 4 The Radiation Sub-programme for <strong>the</strong> GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment<br />

No. 5 The Boundary-layer Sub-programme for <strong>the</strong> GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment<br />

No. 6 The Synoptic-scale Sub-programme for <strong>the</strong> GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment<br />

No. 7 The Convection Sub-programme for <strong>the</strong> GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment<br />

No. 8 The Oceanographic Sub-programme for <strong>the</strong> GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment<br />

No. 9 International Operations Plan, Parts I, IV, VI, VII, for <strong>the</strong> GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment<br />

No. 10 Ship Operations for <strong>the</strong> GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment. International Operations Plan, Part II<br />

No. 11 Aircraft Plan for <strong>the</strong> GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment. International Operations Plan, Part III<br />

No. 12 Telecommunications for <strong>the</strong> GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment. International Operations Plan, Part V<br />

No. 13 The International Data Management Plan for <strong>the</strong> GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment<br />

No. 14 Preliminary Scientific Results (Vols. I and Il) <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment<br />

No. 15 Report on <strong>the</strong> Field Phase <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment - Operations<br />

No. 16 Report on <strong>the</strong> Field Phase <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment - Scientific Programme<br />

No. 17 Report on <strong>the</strong> Field Phase <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment - Meteorological Atlas<br />

No. 18 Report on <strong>the</strong> Field Phase <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment - Aircraft Mission Summary<br />

No. 19 Report on <strong>the</strong> Field Phase <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment - Summary <strong>of</strong> Data Collected<br />

No. 20 The Final Plan for <strong>the</strong> GATE Sub-programme Data Centres

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