Michael Eisenstadt David Pollock How the United States Benefits ...

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ASSET TEST tensions, if Washington concluded that Israeli actions had contributed to this turn of events. The clash on the Egypt-Israel border in August 2011, which occurred when Palestinians from Gaza launched an attack on Israel from the Sinai (leading to the death of several Egyptian soldiers in the ensuing crossfire), and the diplomatic tensions and small popular protests in Egypt that followed, indicated the potential for problems of the kind just suggested. 3 Indeed, the Egyptian revolution against former president Hosni Mubarak is the most important case in point regarding possible effects of the Arab uprisings on U.S.-Israel ties. Nevertheless—as shown by Egypt’s latest judicial challenge to parliament, right on the eve of its June 16–17, 2012, presidential election runoff—the course of Egypt’s revolution and possible counterrevolution is highly uncertain. So Egypt will probably be preoccupied with internal affairs, rather than with Israel, for quite some time. Yet if Egypt’s new government adopts policies hostile to Israel, while pursuing an accommodationist approach to the United States, Washington would likely feel compelled to tread carefully in its efforts to balance its relationship with these two traditional allies. Conversely, Arab political turmoil has the potential to reinforce the U.S. alliance with Israel—even, or perhaps especially, if key Arab countries become more democratic. Because public opinion in those countries is generally anti- American, greater democracy at home could produce a more anti-American policy abroad. In sharp contrast, it is clear that in Israel, already a functioning democracy, public opinion is solidly pro-American. And because Israel is also politically more stable than just about any Arab country today, its friendship with the United States can more readily be counted on to last for the long haul. As one U.S. military officer with long experience across the region told the authors in the first summer after the Arab uprisings, “Looking around the neighborhood, I don’t see any better ally for the U.S. than Israel. It’s already a democracy, but a strong, stable, and friendly one.” Reducing Mis
Democrats stated that their sympathy was more with Israel. 5 Similarly, a recent unscientific “poll” of fifty former senior U.S. foreign policy professionals showed that the Republicans were twice as likely as the Democrats to be favorably disposed toward the U.S.-Israel alliance (100 percent to 45 percent). 6 Furthermore, the rightward shift in Israeli politics in response to the second Palestinian intifada— manifested most clearly by the decline of the Labor Party in the past decade—has complicated views of Israel among U.S. liberals. 7 What this all means, in practical terms, is unclear. What is clear is that Israel has traditionally enjoyed overwhelming support from both sides of the aisles in Congress, and from both Democratic and Republican administrations. The polling data does, however, suggest the possibility that U.S. support for Israel could someday become a partisan political issue in the United States, which would not bode well for the long-term health of the relationship. Diminis
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A WASHINGTON INSTITUTE STRATEGIC RE
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All rights reserved. Printed in the
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About the Authors MICHAEL EISENSTAD
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Executive Summary THE U.S.-ISRAEL s
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al-Qaeda affiliates—and Israeli i
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iomedical devices and instruments,
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alliance with Israel—because it i
Page 19 and 20: 1 | Introduction THE U.S.-ISRAEL sp
Page 21 and 22: 2 | The Enduring Strategic Logic U.
Page 23 and 24: 5 4 3 2 1 0 5 4 3 2 1 0 sales of U.
Page 25 and 26: Furthermore, under U.S. law, Israel
Page 27 and 28: 13. National U.S.-Arab Chamber of C
Page 29 and 30: network of the Popular Front for th
Page 31 and 32: Israel’s rocket and missile defen
Page 33 and 34: characterized by a campaign of suic
Page 35 and 36: May 2011 raid to kill Usama bin Lad
Page 37 and 38: To deal with these U.S. apprehensio
Page 39 and 40: security technologies, including bo
Page 41 and 42: August 25, 2008, http://www.nytimes
Page 43 and 44: RAND_OP335.pdf. U.S. forces sometim
Page 45 and 46: And according to former Joint IED D
Page 47 and 48: www.emsworld.com/article/10321585/p
Page 49 and 50: compared to that of the United Stat
Page 51 and 52: How the United States Benefits from
Page 53 and 54: every aspect of modern life on comp
Page 55 and 56: with a number of other countries, i
Page 57 and 58: food security goals in Africa and e
Page 59 and 60: emergency services use a novel Isra
Page 61 and 62: public’s faith in the government
Page 63 and 64: 27. Omand, Securing the State, pp.
Page 65 and 66: 2009, http://www.haaretz.com/print-
Page 67 and 68: also Sharon Udasin, “GE Awards Is
Page 69: 5 | Future Challenges ISRAEL IS A S
Page 73 and 74: could undercut Israel’s appeal as
Page 75 and 76: 6 | Conclusion ISRAEL IS A SMALL CO
Page 78: The Washington Institute for Near E
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