Dynamics and Vulnerability of Delta Systems - loicz

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• Where and when do social stresses overpower physical stresses, magnify physical stresses, and alleviate physical stresses on deltas? • How are decision-making processes selected and enacted? How could all scales be addressed and connected for decisions, such as transboundary differences and upstream/downstream linkages? • Can we assess delta restoration measures and ecological sustainability by evaluating delta food webs? • Can we do cost analyses to determine the economical impact of potential vulnerability in delta areas? • Can we develop ‘sustainable development practices’ to reduce human impacts to a minimum such that we are still able to live on deltas and are able to use the various resources that are available in deltas? 5 Conclusions Deltas connect river drainage basins and the world oceans, and are inherently influenced by both physical domains. Both the river and the ocean nourish the delta system with fluxes of water, sediment and nutrients. Consequently, deltas are highly productive, ecologically rich systems and have been attractive areas for settlement of humans from the earliest civilizations. Deltas are immensely important for food production and aquaculture. Today, an estimated 500 million people live in deltas. Many of the most densely populated areas are located in deltas; the Nile delta in Egypt, the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh, the Yangtze and Pearl deltas in China, all have population densities exceeding 1000 people/km 2 , as compared to a global average of 45 people/km 2 . Deltas are coastal lowlands and incorporate in their natural state extensive wetlands and large areas of low-relief river floodplain. This makes them highly susceptible to changes of sea level and prominent examples of areas at risk due to greenhouse warming. The International Panel of Climate Change first recognized this vulnerability in the latest 2007 report. Already, thirty-three major deltas collectively include ~26,000 km 2 of area below local mean sea level and ~96,000 km 2 of vulnerable area below 2 m. This vulnerable area may increase 50% under the mean projected 21 st Century eustatic sea level rise of 0.44 m. Thus, accelerated sea-level rise poses an immediate and serious threat to delta natural habitats and to the people living in these low-lying areas. But deltas are not solely threatened by eustatic or steric sea-level rise. Deltas are extremely dynamic and variable, based on the constructive feeding river and destructive ocean forces. If the balance of the constructive and destructive processes only modestly changes, irreversible collapse may occur. Human influences on the feeding river system are complex and unique to different regions. Even the directionality of the impact may be different from region to region. In dry drainage basins, large irrigation projects take away water that traditionally nourished the delta region, like the 44
Indus delta or the Nile delta. Global scale reservoir construction induces tremendous sediment storage and deprives deltas from a feeding pulse of sediment. Recent modeling studies suggest that nearly one-third of all sediment that would have reached the coast under pristine conditions, is now being trapped on land. However, humans increase sediment supply by rivers as well, by intense agricultural practices, deforestation and mining. A dramatic example of such increase is the farming on the erodible loess plateau in the Yellow River drainage basin, which increased sediment loads to the river tenfold. Globally, reductions of water and sediment load appear prevalent; a study of observed time-series of 150 systems indicates that 68 basins show reduction of water and sediment loads, whereas only 4 showed increase over time. In the delta area itself, humans have stabilized channels with levees, and tried to harness the dynamical delta system itself with adverse effects. Similarly, coastal protection engineering has stabilized the coastline locally and often inhibits natural dynamics of the delta fringe. Such measures often cause a loss of natural habitat for fish and wildlife. The Mississippi river delta experiences large wetland losses due to subsidence and reduced flooding and sediment aggradation as a result of hydraulic engineering. Changes to the natural delta channel dimensions may have been a critical factor in the amount of flooding that New Orleans suffered as a result of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 (Day & Boesch 2007). The topography of low-lying areas of deltas is influenced by natural compaction and tectonics. In addition, groundwater or hydrocarbon extraction can cause accelerated subsidence and thus increase the relative sea-level rise. The Po Delta has subsided 3.7 m in the 20 th Century, of which 81% is attributed to methane mining. After the cessation of methane extraction, the rate slowed to
Page 1: LAND-OCEAN INTERACTIONS IN THE COAS
Page 4 and 5: Published in Germany, 2009 by: GKSS
Page 7 and 8: Executive Summary Deltas form where
Page 9 and 10: Prolog Deltas all over the world ar
Page 11 and 12: 1 Introduction Deltas are the landf
Page 13 and 14: asin by switching and/or inundation
Page 15 and 16: The Indus River in Pakistan is one
Page 17 and 18: Fig. CS2: The evolution of the dist
Page 19 and 20: CS3: Subsidence of the Po River Del
Page 21 and 22: CS4: Rapid Caspian sea level change
Page 23 and 24: Deltas are probably as susceptible
Page 25 and 26: climatic characteristics resulting
Page 27 and 28: A 70% decrease in the Danube’s se
Page 29 and 30: Fig. 3.2: Villagers are building a
Page 31 and 32: consequences of changing water regi
Page 33 and 34: Ibanez et al. 1996, Day et al. 2007
Page 35 and 36: 3.4 The Importance of Extreme Event
Page 37 and 38: economically sustained based on an
Page 39 and 40: • Beyond scale, do small deltas f
Page 41 and 42: CS 10: Figure based on unpublished
Page 43 and 44: depth of flooding for 10yr, 20yr, 5
Page 45: chemical gradients and other non-li
Page 49 and 50: 6 References Alvarado, M. (2005): C
Page 51 and 52: Elvira, B. (1995): Conservation sta
Page 53 and 54: Osborne, P.L. (2000): Tropical ecos
Page 55 and 56: Global Planetary Change (39): 111-1

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