Ambit 1 2 y 3.indb - CICR - Universitat Ramon Llull

DEMOCRACY OR HIERARCHY? 33
What does this all mean? In the effervescent societies of both the state and
of the city of Rio de Janeiro, the opportunities and the risks are comparatively
big, proportionally bigger than in any other part of the country (in itself very
dynamic). 39 There are great possibilities that the individuals will not occupy the
same posts in the social hierarchy as their parents had. Yet, although there has
been a considerable reduction, there are chances for this shift to be upwards. The
problem is that the inverse risk has also risen. It seems to be easier to go downwards
in the social scale, in Rio de Janeiro, than in any other Brazilian state.
Well then, what can the impacts of this process be in political life, and,
especially, in the expectations relating to the power to intervene in the social
reality?
First, the lurking image of a drop in the social hierarchy is a very concrete
possibility for the people in both the city and the state of Rio de Janeiro,
mainly in those strata where one has what to lose. For that reason, they tend
to develop considerable expectations of rising, but, at the same time, they do
not have the necessary support to guarantee some safety –that, at least, of their
social immobility in the social scale. It is evident that we are describing what
is usually called the “middle class”. The founders of sociology and classical
authors, such as Mannheim, have been teaching us for a long time that middle
sectors, situated in ambiguous status conditions, and assaulted by feelings of
insecurity –typical of moments when there is accelerated transformation in the
social, economic and cultural scenes–, are particularly vulnerable to oscillations
between apathy and ideological and political excitement.
On the other hand, the maintenance of local attractiveness –expressed by
still high ascending rates, despite smaller than in the past– surely continues
to incite migratory flows, not only from the interior of the state to the capital
and its metropolitan region, but, in ampler terms, from other states and regions
of the country to Rio. Taking into consideration the fact that Brazil’s political
system is one of the most inclusive-oriented and democratic in the planet, we
can say that this stimulates an amplification of the electorate exactly in less
favored sectors of the population, where there are people with low income and
poor schooling. Their registers are in electoral zones situated in the least valued,
poor or peripheral areas of the city. The ones, finally, that are exactly who, at
first, seem to have little to fear –much to the contrary– in face of the increasing
dynamics of the labor market and of the channels of social mobility.
In fact, one of the reasons for the surprise concerning the performance
of the candidate with the support from “Zona Sul” in the last elections in
Rio was exactly the evolution of the intention of votes pro his candidacy in
areas where the socio-economic-cultural profile did not match the stereotype
attributed to the militants of the “Green Wave”. Taking into account the major
presence of voters situated in the steps and in neighborhoods of small prestige
in the socio-cultural hierarchy –and hastily labeling them as “Zona Norte”–,
many expected that the force of the “Gabeira Wave” would be weaker than
the result that came out through the evolution of the polls during the second
round of voting. They also expected that Eduardo Paes would win the election
more effortlessly.
That did not happen. Whatever the reasons for that may be, the fact is that,
as usual, social reality is always more complex, richer and more surprising than