TRANSPORT SPECIAL
TRANSPORT SPECIAL FEATURE 25 Aviation: 57 Million Jobs and .2 Trillion in Economic Activity Airlines expect 31% rise in passenger demand by 2017 and continued growth for decades to come With further liberalisation on the horizon and downward pressure on taxes and duties, the skies continue to look brighter for the aviation industry – an essential lynchpin for the global tourism industry. IATA’S Airline Industry Forecast 2013-2017 reports airlines expect a 31% increase in passenger numbers between 2012 and 2017. By 2017, total passenger numbers will, according to the survey, to rise to 3.91 billion—an increase of 930 million passengers over the 2.98 billion carried in 2012. This means an average expansion of 5.4% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2017. By comparison, global passenger growth expanded by 4.3% CAGR between 2008 and 2012, largely reflecting the negative impact of the 2008 global financial crisis and recession. Of the new passengers, approximately 292 million will be carried on international routes and 638 million on domestic routes. Figures released by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) also give a bullish outlook for the years ahead, with a longer-term forecast of 6.4 billion air travellers by 2030. The number of aircraft departures reached 33 million globally during 2013, establishing a new record and surpassing the 2012 departure figure by more than one million flights. Air transport capacity, expressed in available seat-kilometres (ASKs), increased globally by 4.6% in 2013. Average passenger load factor increased slightly in 2013, by about one-half a percentage point compared to 2012, or 79.1%. INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC UP 5.2% International traffic grew by 5.2% in 2013, with the highest levels of growth registered by the airlines of the Middle East (10.9%) followed by the Latin America and Caribbean region (8.6%). African carriers recorded the third highest regional growth rate at 7.4%. MASSIVE GROWTH UP TO 2017 FORECAST BY IATA FOR CHINA Routes within or connected to China will be the single largest driver of growth, accounting for 24% of new passengers during the forecast period to 2017. Of the anticipated 227.4 million additional passengers, 195 million will be domestic and 32.4 million will be international. The Asia- Pacific region (including China) is expected to add around 300 million additional passengers by the end of the same current forecast horizon. Of these, around 225 million or 75% are expected to be domestic passengers. Globally, aviation supports some 57 million jobs and .2 trillion in economic activity, but IATA’s Director General and CEO Tony Tyler asserts that certain governments should stop looking at the industry as a luxury cash cow: “The fact that the Asia-Pacific region - led by China - and REGIONAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC AND CAPACITY GROWTH, MARKET SHARES AND LOAD FACTORS IN 2013* ASKs: Available Seatkilometres LFs: Passenger Load Factors *These figures, provided by ICAO, are preliminary and cover scheduled commercial services only. The statistics are applicable to the traffic by region of airline domicile. Tony Tyler Director General and CEO, IATA the Middle East will deliver the strongest growth over the forecast period is not surprising. Governments in both areas recognize the value of the connectivity provided by aviation to drive global trade and development. Similar opportunities exist for developing regions in Africa and Latin America. To reap the benefit, governments in those regions will need to change their view of aviation from a luxury cash cow to a utilitarian powerful draft horse to pull the economy forward.” EUROPEAN AIRLINES DOMINATE Globally, the international air transport market is still dominated by European airlines, which accounted in 2013 for 38% of international traffic. Asia/ Pacific airlines ranked second in this category at 27%. DOMESTIC PASSENGER TRAFFIC Domestic traffic in 2013 increased by 5.1% compared to 2012, with airlines from North America and Asia/Pacific accounting for a combined 84% of worldwide domestic traffic (47% for North America, 37% Asia/Pacific). APAC domestic results were 10% higher than in 2012, driven mainly by Chinese airlines, which account for approximately 60% of the region’s total market. ITB BERLIN NEWS • Wednesday 5 th March 2014
