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PIB de € 2 trilhões, este país é responsável por um terço da economia da Eurolândia. Outrora um exemplo de uma fortaleza econômica, a Alemanha está agora sofrendo restrições estruturais, principalmente em seu mercado de trabalho altamente regulado. Outrora um exemplo de uma fortaleza econômica, a Alemanha está agora sofrendo restrições estruturais, principalmente em seu mercado de trabalho altamente regulado Isto inclui sindicatos poderosos que são responsáveis por acordos salariais centrais rígidos e práticas trabalhistas restritivas. Como conseqüência, investimento, inovação e crescimento estão atrasados. Os custos trabalhista alemães são os mais altos no mundo e está perdendo rapidamente a competitividade com seus vizinhos europeus. Não é de surpreender que o crescimento do PIB provavelmente permaneça abaixo da média da UE (+0,4% para 2003). Além disso, com a inflação pressionando em torno de 1%, a política monetária é mais forte para as maiores economias da Eurolândia. A elevação dos impostos e política fiscal restritiva contribuem para o mal-estar. Enfraquecimento do Capital dos Mercados Em 2002, as bolsas européias caíram pelo terceiro ano. Visto seu pico em março de 2000 e medido pelo Índice Europeu de Capital MSCI, a ação média perdeu 55% de seu valor no final de março de 2003. Algumas bolsas nacionais, sobretudo a alemã, com O atual elevado valor do euro força corporações européias a redimensionar sua produção, tornando-a mais enxuta e produtiva uma perda de quase 70%, andaram ainda pior. Por sua vez, os mercados de renda fixa aumentaram acentuadamente devido às taxas de juros de longo prazo em declínio. O rendimento dos títulos do governo atualmente estão nos níveis mais baixos. Muito além das incertezas geopolíticas atuais, a visão do capital é construtiva. As avaliações não são caras e, em muitos casos, os rendimentos dos dividendos das bolsas ex- Europe - between downbeat facts and unassertive confidence Last year, the growth rate in Europe declined to one percent. The outlook is not much brighter for 2003 and the economic malaise in Germany added to the weakness by Thomas Lips I n 2002, Europe realized significant milestones on the way to political and economic integration: the introduction of Euro notes and bills went smoothly and at the end of the year, the political leaders of the 15 European Union (EU) member states decided to admit 10 new countries in May 2004. Unfortunately there was a sharp contrast between the political success and the economic reality. Last year, the growth rate in The enlarged EU will constitute an economic market of 450 million consumers and a GDP of about 9 trillion USD, comparable in size to the GDP of the USA Europe declined to one percent. The outlook is not much brighter for this year, although we expect a recovery starting in the second half of 2003. The strengthening of the Euro had a negative impact on exports. The economic malaise in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, added to the weakness. The development of the European equity markets mirrored the disappointing economic performance. In order to realize Europe’s huge potential, labour market reforms that intensify competition are needed badly. Contrary to the US, Europe is not plagued with large macroeconomic imbalances. Political Success The smooth and efficient physical introduction of the Euro at the start of 2002 marks a further success for the common European economic market. There are already signs that the Euro is reducing national price differences of products and services as well as the difference of returns on financial assets. Business people and tourists alike are finally able to use the same currency in all 12 Euro member states, which reduces their costs as well (The UK, Denmark and Sweden are members of the EU, but still have their own currencies). The EU is likely to be enlarged by 10 new members in May 2004. With the exception of Cyprus and Malta, the candidates are all Once a shining example of an economic fortress, Germany is now suffering under structural constraints, above all in its highly regulated labour market formerly Eastern European communist countries. 14 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, these states are keen to integrate themselves quickly into the economic structures of the western democracies. The enlarged EU will then constitute an economic market of 450 million consumers and a gross domestic product (GDP) of about 9 trillion US Dollars (=8.3 trillion Euros), comparable in size to the GDP of the United States of America. Economic Setback 2002 has been a successful year for politics but a very difficult one for the economy. Although the world was much more focused on the limping American economic fortunes, Europe did even worse, growing only about half as much than the US. In Europe, the economic cycle peaked in 2000, when GDP growth advanced by nearly 4%. Thereafter, the economy went from bad to worse: in 2001, growth decelerated to 1.6% and, in 2002 to 1.0%. During the last six months, the main European national economies nearly came to a standstill. Thanks to an expected acceleration during the second half of this year, growth could reach slightly over one percent in 2003. europa europe swisscam nº33 05/2003 5
cedem as taxas de juros dos títulos do governo. Durante o período de enfraquecimento macroecônomico, a operação de ganhos da maioria das corporações européias se mantiveram bem. Graças a várias restruturações e medidas de corte de custos, os lucros puderam aumentar bastante uma vez que se inicie a recuperação econômica. Necessário: Reformas Estruturais Nos anos futuros, o Velho Continente talvez se beneficie da recuperação econômica global liderada pelos Estados Unidos. A longo prazo, Muito além das incertezas geopolíticas atuais, a visão do capital é construtiva entretanto, a perspectiva de uma economia européia quase totalmente dependente de eventos globais, isto é, sobretudo americanos, é muito desestimulante. Mas se a Europa deseja alcançar o poder econômico que merece devido a seu grande tamanho e atuar um dia como uma máquina econômica mundial, reformas estruturais são necessárias urgentemente. Essas reformas não virão de graça e talvez serão muito dolorosas. No ponto central dessas etapas estão reformas trabalhistas e de mercado de produto a fim de intensificar a competição. Mais competição estimulará a produtividade, que retardará os Estados Unidos. Ironicamente, o alto valor atual do euro pode ajudar a atingir esses objetivos: isto força as corporações européias a redefinir sua produção, tornando-a mais enxuta e mais produtiva a fim de compensar o elevado valor de sua moeda. Os pré-requisitos da Europa para atingir esses objetivos ambiciosos são bons: diferentemente dos Estados Unidos, o Velho Continente não está sofrendo desequilíbrios macroecônomicos, como elevado déficit em conta-corrente do governo federal. Thomas Lips é responsável por Investimentos do Banco Pivado AIG Recessionary tendencies in large parts of the world, increasing geopolitical uncertainties as well as numerous accounting scandals, mainly in the US, have led to a loss of confidence The current high value of the Euro forces European corporations to streamline their production, becoming leaner and more productive by European consumers and businesses. Rising unemployment (currently 8.3% of the total workforce) caused domestic demand to stagnate. Capital spending continued to fall. Exports still contributed the most to the meagre economic performance, but were badly hit by the strengthening of the Euro. During the last year, the European common currency has appreciated by 8% on a trade-weighted basis. Against the USD, it even gained 18%. Germany, the sick man of Europe The weak economic development in Germany affected the rest of Europe as well. With a population of 80 million people and a GDP of 2 trillion Euros, this country accounts for almost a third of Euroland`s economy. Once a shining example of an economic fortress, Germany is now suffering under significant structural constraints, above all in its highly regulated labour market. This includes powerful unions that are responsible for rigid central wage agreements and restrictive labour practices. As a consequence, investment, innovation and growth are delayed. Germany`s labour costs are the highest in the world and it is fast losing competitiveness with its European neighbours. No wonder GDP growth is likely to remain well below the EU average (+0.4% for 2003). Furthermore, with inflation hovering around 1%, monetary policy is much too tight for Euroland`s biggest economy. Rising taxes and a restrictive fiscal policy contribute to the malaise. Weakening Equity Markets In 2002, European stock markets declined for the third straight year. Since its peak in March 2000, and measured by the MSCI Equity Index Europe, the average share lost 55% of its value by the end of March 2003. Some national stock markets, most notably that of Germany with a decline of nearly 70%, fared even worse. On the other hand, fixed income markets rose sharply, due to declining long-term interest rates. Yields of government bonds currently stand near record low levels. Looking beyond the current geopolitical uncertainties, the outlook for equities is constructive. Valuations are not expensive and in many cases, dividends yield of stocks exceed interest rates of government bonds. During the period of macroeconomic weakness, operating earnings of most European corporations held up quite well. Thanks to various restructuring and cost cutting measures, profits could rise sharply once an economic recovery sets in. Needed: Structural Reforms Over the coming years, the Old Continent is likely to benefit from a US-led global economic recovery. In the longer term, however, Looking beyond the current geopolitical uncertainties, the outlook for equities is constructive the prospect of a European economy almost entirely dependent on global, that is mainly US events, is very uninspiring. But if Europe wants to achieve the economic power it deserves, due to its large size, and act one day as a world economic engine, structural reforms are needed urgently. These reforms won’t come for free and are likely to be very painful. Central to such steps are labour and product market reforms in order to intensify competition. More competition will spur productivity, which badly lags the US. Ironically enough, the current high value of the Euro might help to reach these goals. It forces European corporations to streamline their production, become leaner and more productive in order to compensate for the increased value of their currency. The prerequisites for Europe to reach these ambitious targets are good. Unlike the US, the Old Continent is not suffering under macroeconomic imbalances such as huge current account and federal government deficits. T homas Lips is Chief Investment Officer of AIG Private Bank europa europe swisscam nº33 05/2003 7
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