cilt1sosyalkalkinma

[ÜNİDAP Uluslararası Bölgesel Kalkınma Konferansı (Muş-2016)
UNIDAP International Regional Development Conference (Mus-2016)]
4.2. Continuation Of The EU Status Quo (İncrementalism And Muddling
Through)
The second option, the status quo is likely for the foreseeable future if only because
of institutional inertia and fear of the unknown. European leaders are not inclined to
take risks with bold new initiatives. Incrementalism – kicking the can down the street
-- has worked well in the past. Athough “muddling through” has failed to resolve any
of the crises described above, it is nevertheless the preferred option of most European
leaders. This, of course, assumes that Europe’s proliferating populist right-wing
parties to not take power, an assumption that -- especially in the case of France -- is
hardly a certainty and requires electoral cooperation among more traditional political
parties.
Major expansion of the EU –Ukraine is improbable. Ukraine remains a “frozen
conflict” with no speedy resolution in sight. Its attempts to curb corruption are only
at a beginning stage. Its economy lags significantly behind much of the rest of
Europe. It will take many years for Ukraine to be prepared for EU membership
consideration – even after the resolution of the battles in the east. The other states
seeking EU membership are small, with poor economies. They, too, have a long road
to EU membership, usually about 10 years. And the EU has declared that it wants a
period of consolidation to absorb the 13 new members, which have joined since
2004.Thus, no new members will be admitted for some time.
The exit of some members is entirely possible. Britain’s vote makes them the first of
a potential three or four members who may seek to leave the Brussels group,
especially if Britain is allowed a relationship to the EU like Norway’s. Economic and
political costs and benefits will likely foster support for such a benign relationship,
but the anger of some governments and concern that such an outcome might provide
incentives for others to leave may produce considerable opposition to giving London
the relationship it desires.
Hungary is a major candidate for departure with its anti-democratic policies and
increasingly close relationship with Moscow. Several of the Euroskeptic states
including Denmark and Poland may seek to loosen EU ties. And the rise of the far
right in France, Netherlands and Austria may mean potential departures for those
states. The EU has been making plans for Britain’s exit, and an EU without Britain
will be a tighter union because Britain historically championed loose ties, limiting
integration to trade, and opting out of many major EU initiatives including Schengen
and the euro. Should France seek to exit, however, the EU would face a major
challenge to remain together. France was a founding member and a pivotal element
in German containment and pacification after the second world war. An EU without
France would probably become a German-based economic forum with very limited
activities.
Dividing the EU into different parts or any attempt to establish differing categories
of membership already exists to some extent regarding Schengen and the ero.
Whether such divisions will grow and harden, however, is unlikely, especially
because, as noted above, successful efforts to achieve deeper integration are
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