Cyfrowy Polsat - Redukuj - Dom Maklerski BDM SA

Wybrane dane finansowe i wskaźniki rynkowe
Dane finansowe 2009 2010P 2011P 2012P 2013P 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P 2019P
Przychody zmiana r/r 14.3% 18.8% 8.4% 8.3% 7.9% 7.5% 6.3% 4.8% 3.6% 2.9% 2.6%
EBITDA zmiana r/r -8.6% 23.0% 6.9% 7.2% 10.2% 10.8% 10.8% 8.8% 6.6% 3.5% 2.1%
EBIT zmiana r/r -14.9% 13.8% 5.0% 2.1% 6.5% 8.2% 15.7% 11.4% 7.9% 3.9% 2.0%
Zysk netto zmiana r/r -14.6% 6.1% 9.0% 2.2% 7.1% 8.7% 16.3% 11.9% 8.4% 4.3% 2.6%
Marża EBITDA 24.9% 25.7% 25.4% 25.1% 25.7% 26.5% 27.6% 28.6% 29.5% 29.6% 29.5%
Marża EBIT 21.6% 20.7% 20.0% 18.9% 18.7% 18.8% 20.4% 21.7% 22.6% 22.8% 22.7%
Marża netto 18.0% 16.1% 16.2% 15.3% 15.2% 15.3% 16.8% 17.9% 18.8% 19.0% 19.0%
Dług 49 34 29 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19
D / (D+E) 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
D / E 7% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Odsetki / EBIT 3% -4% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3%
Dług / kapitał własny 15% 8% 6% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1%
Dług netto -51 -71 -82 -138 -205 -287 -378 -465 -549 -624 0
Dług netto / kapitał własny -16% -17% -16% -22% -29% -36% -42% -47% -51% -53% 0%
Dług netto / EBITDA -16% -18% -20% -31% -41% -53% -62% -70% -78% -86% 0%
Dług netto / EBIT -18% -23% -25% -41% -57% -74% -84% -93% -102% -111% 0%
EV 3 894 3 873 3 863 3 806 3 740 3 657 3 567 3 479 3 395 3 320 3 944
Dług / EV 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0%
CAPEX / Przychody 11% 10% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7%
CAPEX / Amortyzacja 224% 178% 140% 117% 102% 107% 108% 108% 108% 107% 100%
Amortyzacja / Przychody 3% 5% 5% 6% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Zmiana KO / Przychody -2% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Zmiana KO / Zmiana przychodów -13% 10% 26% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Wskaźniki rynkowe
MC/S 3.1 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6
P/E 17.2 16.2 14.9 14.6 13.6 12.5 10.8 9.6 8.9 8.5 8.3
P/BV 12.3 7.0 5.9 5.1 4.6 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8
P/CE 14.6 12.3 11.2 10.3 9.3 8.3 7.5 6.9 6.5 6.3 6.1
EV/EBITDA 12.3 10.0 9.3 8.5 7.6 6.7 5.9 5.3 4.9 4.6 5.3
EV/EBIT 14.2 12.4 11.8 11.4 10.5 9.5 8.0 7.0 6.3 6.0 6.9
EV/S 3.1 2.6 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.6
FCF/EV 3.4% 4.2% 5.8% 6.9% 8.2% 9.5% 10.8% 12.0% 12.9% 13.4% 11.6%
BVPS 1.2 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.3
EPS 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8
CEPS 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4
FCFPS 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7
DPS 0.8 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5
Payout ratio 75% 0% 65% 65% 75% 80% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85%
DYield 5% 0% 4% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 10%
Źródło: Beskidzki Dom Maklerski S.A.
CYFROWY POLSAT
RAPORT ANALITYCZNY
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