Tomorrow's Railway and Climate Change Adaptation Final Report

literature and information, these potential impacts have been summarised qualitatively
or quantitatively.
From the literature reviewed, and recent experiences of extreme weather events, the
most frequently identified and potentially significant impacts appear to be related to
high temperatures and high precipitation. These are projected to increase in frequency
and intensity. However some of the most significant impacts for the GB railway may also
be related to low precipitation, low temperatures, high winds and storm surges. Data for
these is less conclusive in terms of an increase or decrease in intensity or frequency.
5.2.2 Priority recommendations
As with some of the recommendations relating to better understanding of how the UK
climate and weather are projected to change in the future, some weather sensitivities
identified for the GB railway are also relevant to other aspects of the UK infrastructure
system. For example, those for electric and/or electronic railway assets are also relevant
for analogous assets of this type in other sectors. Therefore recommendations for the
GB railway will have benefits for the UK as a whole.
The authors therefore recommend undertaking further work in order to understand and
analyse return periods and threshold exceedance for selected critical or extreme
weather events. This needs to be done in particular locations and for specific assets
relevant to the GB rail industry. This will help to inform decision making and
prioritisation of resources to respond to extreme weather and climate change.
It is important to note that the impact of weather on a given sub-system or asset may be
related to other factors too. Therefore, as well as assessing present and future risks to
the railway from weather and climate change, it is recommended that further
assessment of the vulnerability of assets to weather is undertaken. This can be done by
analysing impact data from databases such as TRUST. Faults and failures related to
weather should be examined closely to determine whether they occurred purely due to
adverse or extreme weather or (for example) due to the condition of the sub-system or
asset which failed.
A further consideration is the potential for present day vulnerability to change in the
future. Indeed, it might be hoped that knowledge of such changes would be elicited as
weather/ impact relationships become better understood and mitigation strategies
evolve. The specification of, and adherence to, maintenance processes are essential
factors in minimising the vulnerability of assets to weather-related faults or failure.
Many studies of future impacts necessarily assume no change in the vulnerability of
assets and sub-systems into the future, as there is often little or no information available
about this. It would be useful to try to gain a better understanding of the effect of
particular mitigation strategies on future vulnerability of assets and sub-systems.
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