WORLD POPULATION TO 2300

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TABLE 1. POPULATION AND AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE OF THE WORLD AND DEVELOPMENT GROUPS, ESTIMATES AND THREE SCENARIOS: 1950-2300 World More developed regions Less developed regions Year or period Medium High Low Medium High Low Medium High Low Population (millions) 1950...................... 2 519 — — 813 — — 1 706 — — 1975...................... 4 068 — — 1 047 — — 3 021 — — 2000...................... 6 071 6 071 6 071 1 194 1 194 1 194 4 877 4 877 4 877 2025...................... 7 851 8 365 7 334 1 241 1 282 1 199 6 610 7 082 6 135 2050...................... 8 919 10 633 7 409 1 220 1 370 1 084 7 699 9 263 6 325 2075...................... 9 221 12 494 6 601 1 153 1 467 904 8 068 11 027 5 696 2100...................... 9 064 14 018 5 491 1 131 1 651 766 7 933 12 367 4 726 2125...................... 8 734 15 296 4 556 1 137 1 885 679 7 597 13 411 3 877 2150...................... 8 494 16 722 3 921 1 161 2 152 633 7 333 14 571 3 288 2175...................... 8 434 18 696 3 481 1 185 2 454 593 7 249 16 242 2 889 2200...................... 8 499 21 236 3 165 1 207 2 795 554 7 291 18 441 2 612 2225...................... 8 622 24 301 2 920 1 228 3 179 517 7 395 21 122 2 403 2250...................... 8 752 27 842 2 704 1 246 3 612 482 7 506 24 230 2 223 2275...................... 8 868 31 868 2 501 1 263 4 100 448 7 605 27 768 2 053 2300...................... 8 972 36 444 2 310 1 278 4 650 416 7 694 31 793 1 894 Average annual rate of change (per cent) 1950-1975............. 1.92 — — 1.01 — — 2.29 — — 1975-2000............. 1.60 — — 0.52 — — 1.92 — — 2000-2025............. 1.03 1.28 0.76 0.16 0.29 0.02 1.22 1.49 0.92 2025-2050............. 0.51 0.96 0.04 -0.07 0.26 -0.41 0.61 1.07 0.12 2050-2075............. 0.13 0.64 -0.46 -0.23 0.27 -0.72 0.19 0.70 -0.42 2075-2100............. -0.07 0.46 -0.74 -0.08 0.47 -0.67 -0.07 0.46 -0.75 2100-2125............. -0.15 0.35 -0.75 0.02 0.53 -0.48 -0.17 0.32 -0.79 2125-2150............. -0.11 0.36 -0.60 0.08 0.53 -0.28 -0.14 0.33 -0.66 2150-2175............. -0.03 0.45 -0.48 0.08 0.53 -0.27 -0.05 0.43 -0.52 2175-2200............. 0.03 0.51 -0.38 0.07 0.52 -0.27 0.02 0.51 -0.40 2200-2025............. 0.06 0.54 -0.32 0.07 0.52 -0.28 0.06 0.54 -0.33 2225-2050............. 0.06 0.54 -0.31 0.06 0.51 -0.28 0.06 0.55 -0.31 2050-2075............. 0.05 0.54 -0.31 0.05 0.51 -0.29 0.05 0.55 -0.32 2075-2300............. 0.05 0.54 -0.32 0.05 0.50 -0.29 0.05 0.54 -0.32 between the high and the low scenarios, but the effect of the divergence is greater for the high scenario, because the population base on which these growth rates operate is larger and expanding. In the last century of the high scenario, growth is constant at 0.54 per cent a year, portending unending growth. In the low scenario, decline is essentially constant at around -0.32 per cent a year, similarly implying no limit to decline short of extinction. The growth rates vary largely because of variation in fertility, which is also shown in the figure. Total fertility, projected at 2.00 children per woman worldwide in 2050, falls to a low point of 1.87 around 2075 (in the medium projection). 14 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division World Population to 2300
5 4 3 2 1 0 Figure 8. Average annual rate of change of the world population and total fertility, estimates and three scenarios: 1950-2300 -1 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 Forty years later, world population growth reaches its low point of -0.15 per cent. Population growth takes somewhat longer after fertility bottoms out to reach its minimum in the high and low scenarios, but the sequence is similar. A comparison with the previous long-range projection indicates the importance of fertility assumptions. That projection was based on the 1998 Revision and took population up to 2150. World population growth up to 2050 in the 2002 Revision is strikingly similar to growth in the 1998 Revision, as noted earlier. However, the longrange projections beyond 2050 are quite different, with that based on the 1998 Revision showing steady growth (figure 9). The reason is fairly straightforward: fertility was assumed, in the earlier long-range projections, to stay only briefly below replacement, returning essentially to replacement a decade beyond 2050 rather than, as in the current projection, staying clearly below for a century after 2050. Many countries in developing regions, in the earlier projection, never fall below replacement fertility, but in the current projection they do. The assumption, therefore, that fertility will fall to low levels for a fairly long period, not just in more developed but also in less developed regions, is a distinctive characteristic of the current long-range projections. Mortality levels play a role in long-range population growth, helping account for the temporary decline and being responsible for change once fertility has settled at replacement. The role of mortality, however, is not evident from trends in life expectancy. World life expectancy is projected to grow along a smooth path but at a slowing pace. It is expected to reach 74.8 years in 2050—after having risen about 20 years in 1950- 2000 and rising further about 10 years in 2000- 2050. Gains beyond 2050 diminish: for 2050- 2100, 8 years, and then for subsequent 50-year periods 5, 4, 3, and finally 2 years for 2250-2300. By the time rising life expectancy becomes the dominant and indeed the sole influence on growth—in 2225—it will be at 92.8 years and rising slowly, leading to an annual population growth rate over the next half century of only 0.06 per cent. There is no indication from these trends that mortality change could produce fluctuations in United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division 15 World Population to 2300 High Medium Low Total fertility Population growth rate (percent)
Page 1: WORLD POPULATION TO 2300 United Nat
Page 4 and 5: The Department of Economic and Soci
Page 7 and 8: CONTENTS PREFACE...................
Page 9 and 10: No. Page 5. Twenty largest countrie
Page 11 and 12: No. Page A12. Average annual rate o
Page 13: PART ONE. REPORT xi
Page 16 and 17: ern Europe stands out with low life
Page 18 and 19: Projections to 2050, together with
Page 20 and 21: Annual population growth (percent)
Page 22 and 23: Total fertility (TFR) 2.9 2.8 2.7 2
Page 24 and 25: II. PROJECTIONS AFTER 2050: LONG-RA
Page 26 and 27: 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 F
Page 30 and 31: Population (billions) 10 9 8 7 6 5
Page 32 and 33: Figure 11. Significant world demogr
Page 34 and 35: Total fertility (children per woman
Page 36 and 37: D. MAJOR AREAS Among major areas (t
Page 38 and 39: to -0.09 per cent, and Northern Ame
Page 40 and 41: Crude death rate per thousand Diffe
Page 42 and 43: TABLE 4. AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF CHA
Page 44 and 45: Average annual rate of change (per
Page 46 and 47: Population (millions) 6,000 5,000 4
Page 48 and 49: Life expectancy at birth 100 90 80
Page 50 and 51: to grow much more rapidly, more tha
Page 52 and 53: Population (millions) Figure 35. To
Page 54 and 55: Life expectancy at birth 105 100 95
Page 56 and 57: TABLE 5. TWENTY LARGEST COUNTRIES A
Page 58 and 59: Population (millions) 180 160 140 1
Page 60 and 61: TABLE 8. POPULATION IN 2000 AND 210
Page 62 and 63: TABLE 8 (continued) Population (mil
Page 64 and 65: TABLE 8 (continued) Population (mil
Page 66 and 67: TABLE 9 (continued) Lowest Highest
Page 68 and 69: TABLE 9 (continued) Lowest Highest
Page 70 and 71: TABLE 10. COUNTRIES WITH THE HIGHES
Page 72 and 73: TABLE 11. COUNTRIES WITH THE LOWEST
Page 74 and 75: Female-male gap in years 10 8 6 4 2
Page 76 and 77: Since world population in 2300 is p
Page 78 and 79:
TABLE 13. DENSITY IN PERSONS PER SQ
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Apart from coping with population s
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Major area TABLE 14. POPULATION IN
Page 84 and 85:
TABLE 15. PERCENTAGE IN DIFFERENT A
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Percent Percent 60 55 50 45 40 Figu
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TABLE 16. START AND END YEAR OF THE
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Age in years 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 1
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large up to 2050. In 2050, the medi
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Date Africa Asia 1980 China-Hong Ko
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These projections were introduced a
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Population (billions) Figure 54. Wo
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PART TWO. ESSAYS
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But perhaps emotions are better und
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sider relationships that are mediat
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mother love and mother-child bondin
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marriage and fertility are associat
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1 Philosophy, especially German phi
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other generations, i.e. to it‘s c
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y setting the derivative of T with
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than that given, per head, to the o
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Case 1: Equal values of α for all
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___________________________________
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___________________________________
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III. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE UNITED
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0.3 per cent per annum. This would
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aise problems in a country already
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such low-fertility Asian countries
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tury. There was better contraceptio
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that by 2100 world consensus would
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TABLE 1. EVOLUTION OF THE POPULATIO
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In conclusion, the medium scenario
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The assumption on sub-replacement f
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Total fertility (children per woman
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where for decades net inward migrat
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Figure 2. Population of European re
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projections is that they underline
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offered. In the practice of the bie
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will exhibit different relative wei
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uring the demographic behavior of t
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ecome attractive, not because it is
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the world’s population - e.g. wit
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1,481 million), 2.05 births in Nort
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as long as three centuries, a major
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illion, with a tighter and tighter
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forecaster that it would be a “fo
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eproductive health in the 10 years
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it or to await its coming as a natu
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As such, the country-specific proje
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Although mathematical demographers
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target life expectancy is reached,
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ties, most of the non-technical dis
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limbs, so that, being deprived of t
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est rate of growth in the world (cu
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the whole of Asia (3.7 billion) is
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In late 2003, the United Nations Po
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panied by a significant degree of n
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TABLE A1. POPULATION OF THE WORLD B
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TABLE A2. AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF CH
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TABLE A3. TOTAL FERTILITY OF THE WO
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TABLE A4. LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH
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TABLE A5. TOTAL POPULATION BY MAJOR
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TABLE A6. AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF PO
Page 205 and 206:
TABLE A7. TOTAL FERTILITY BY MAJOR
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Africa TABLE A8. LIFE EXPECTANCY AT
Page 209 and 210:
TABLE A9. TOTAL FERTILITY OF THE WO
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TABLE A10 (continued) Major area an
Page 213 and 214:
TABLE A11 (continued) Country or ar
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Page 217 and 218:
TABLE A12. AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF P
Page 219 and 220:
Page 221 and 222:
Page 223 and 224:
1950- 1955 TABLE A13 (continued) 20
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1950- 1955 TABLE A13 (continued) 20
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Country or area TABLE A14. MALE LIF
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Country or area TABLE A14 (continue
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Page 233 and 234:
Page 235 and 236:
Page 237 and 238:
TABLE A16. POPULATION DENSITY BY CO
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Page 241 and 242:
Page 243 and 244:
Page 245 and 246:
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TABLE A18. PROPORTION OF BROAD AGE
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TABLE A18 (continued) Major area an
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TABLE A19 (continued) Demographic w
Page 253 and 254:
TABLE A19 (continued) Demographic w
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WORLD POPULATION TO 2300

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