WORLD POPULATION TO 2300

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Population (billions) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 Figure 9. Comparison of world population and net reproduction rate with previous long-range projections, estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2150 1998 long-range projections Current long-range projections Series5 Series3 Series4 Series6 2 0.8 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 growth. Nevertheless, the crude death rate does in fact fluctuate. As births fall and populations age, the crude death rate rises, intersecting with the crude birth rate in 2075 and not falling below it again until 2170 (figure 10). Within this period, at least, the rise in the crude death rate is more substantial than the fall in the crude birth rate. Should the crude death rate instead stay at its 2050 level, no population decline would occur. Mortality change therefore does make an important contribution to growth trends. The medium scenario implies that the still substantial population growth expected up to 2050 will not continue. If vital rates follow expected trends, world population will level off (though it may still continue to grow fairly slowly) close to the 2050 level. However, small, consistent deviations in vital rates from expected paths could have quite substantial effects. Population could instead (in the high scenario) be double its 2050 size Population (billions) Net reproduction rate about a century later, or (in the low scenario) be only half as large in 75 years. Is the projected range for future world population too wide? For many planning purposes it probably is, though not many people are in the business of planning centuries in advance. This range of possibilities may in fact be a reasonable reflection of the uncertainty that attends population projections of several centuries. A crude way to demonstrate this is to extrapolate the confidence intervals estimated for the 1998 Revision. Doing this would set an upper limit of 37 billion by 2300, essentially the same as the high scenario. (An extrapolation for the lower limit, however, would give negative figures.) Some patterns visible in the world projection reappear again and again in regional and country projections. Fluctuation in population growth, particularly a long period of decline and an eventual return to positive but minimal growth, are typical 16 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division World Population to 2300 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 Net reproduction rate
Rate per thousand 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Figure 10. Crude birth and death rate and rate of natural increase for the world, estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2300 -5 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 for most countries. That fluctuations eventuate in little change in the long run, such that population in 2300 is not much different from population in 2050, is also common. That fertility first declines below replacement and then recovers to replacement level, and that population growth follows, with turning points about half a century later, is also a general pattern. The steady rise in life expectancy, which paradoxically produces an initial rise in the crude death rate, also appears in many cases. That high and low scenarios provide a wide range around the medium scenario is the usual pattern. These patterns recur in projections within various regions and countries. Some things do vary, however: specific levels of demographic parameters, as well as the timing of events. Regions and countries differ in how far fertility and growth fall, how high the crude death rate rises, and when exactly these events are projected to happen. Crude birth rate Crude death rate Natural increase Figure 11 shows the projected time line of demographic milestones for world population. Similar events occur in most countries, but along different time lines. The similarity of patterns might seem to imply that rates of change for regions and countries should eventually converge. Whether this is in fact the case needs to be determined. C. MORE DEVELOPED AND LESS DEVELOPED REGIONS At present and in projections through 2050, more developed and less developed regions are strikingly different in demographic terms. Whether these regions will still be properly distinguished in the following centuries may be unlikely but is ultimately impossible to tell. One can however ask—regardless of what happens to economic, social, and political distinctions— whether these regions will remain demographically distinctive. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division 17 World Population to 2300
Page 1: WORLD POPULATION TO 2300 United Nat
Page 4 and 5: The Department of Economic and Soci
Page 7 and 8: CONTENTS PREFACE...................
Page 9 and 10: No. Page 5. Twenty largest countrie
Page 11 and 12: No. Page A12. Average annual rate o
Page 13: PART ONE. REPORT xi
Page 16 and 17: ern Europe stands out with low life
Page 18 and 19: Projections to 2050, together with
Page 20 and 21: Annual population growth (percent)
Page 22 and 23: Total fertility (TFR) 2.9 2.8 2.7 2
Page 24 and 25: II. PROJECTIONS AFTER 2050: LONG-RA
Page 26 and 27: 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 F
Page 28 and 29: TABLE 1. POPULATION AND AVERAGE ANN
Page 32 and 33: Figure 11. Significant world demogr
Page 34 and 35: Total fertility (children per woman
Page 36 and 37: D. MAJOR AREAS Among major areas (t
Page 38 and 39: to -0.09 per cent, and Northern Ame
Page 40 and 41: Crude death rate per thousand Diffe
Page 42 and 43: TABLE 4. AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF CHA
Page 44 and 45: Average annual rate of change (per
Page 46 and 47: Population (millions) 6,000 5,000 4
Page 48 and 49: Life expectancy at birth 100 90 80
Page 50 and 51: to grow much more rapidly, more tha
Page 52 and 53: Population (millions) Figure 35. To
Page 54 and 55: Life expectancy at birth 105 100 95
Page 56 and 57: TABLE 5. TWENTY LARGEST COUNTRIES A
Page 58 and 59: Population (millions) 180 160 140 1
Page 60 and 61: TABLE 8. POPULATION IN 2000 AND 210
Page 62 and 63: TABLE 8 (continued) Population (mil
Page 64 and 65: TABLE 8 (continued) Population (mil
Page 66 and 67: TABLE 9 (continued) Lowest Highest
Page 68 and 69: TABLE 9 (continued) Lowest Highest
Page 70 and 71: TABLE 10. COUNTRIES WITH THE HIGHES
Page 72 and 73: TABLE 11. COUNTRIES WITH THE LOWEST
Page 74 and 75: Female-male gap in years 10 8 6 4 2
Page 76 and 77: Since world population in 2300 is p
Page 78 and 79: TABLE 13. DENSITY IN PERSONS PER SQ
Page 80 and 81:
Apart from coping with population s
Page 82 and 83:
Major area TABLE 14. POPULATION IN
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TABLE 15. PERCENTAGE IN DIFFERENT A
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Percent Percent 60 55 50 45 40 Figu
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TABLE 16. START AND END YEAR OF THE
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Age in years 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 1
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large up to 2050. In 2050, the medi
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Date Africa Asia 1980 China-Hong Ko
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These projections were introduced a
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Population (billions) Figure 54. Wo
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PART TWO. ESSAYS
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But perhaps emotions are better und
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sider relationships that are mediat
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mother love and mother-child bondin
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marriage and fertility are associat
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1 Philosophy, especially German phi
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other generations, i.e. to it‘s c
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y setting the derivative of T with
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than that given, per head, to the o
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Case 1: Equal values of α for all
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___________________________________
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___________________________________
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III. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE UNITED
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0.3 per cent per annum. This would
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aise problems in a country already
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such low-fertility Asian countries
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tury. There was better contraceptio
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that by 2100 world consensus would
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TABLE 1. EVOLUTION OF THE POPULATIO
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In conclusion, the medium scenario
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The assumption on sub-replacement f
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Total fertility (children per woman
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where for decades net inward migrat
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Figure 2. Population of European re
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projections is that they underline
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offered. In the practice of the bie
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will exhibit different relative wei
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uring the demographic behavior of t
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ecome attractive, not because it is
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the world’s population - e.g. wit
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1,481 million), 2.05 births in Nort
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as long as three centuries, a major
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illion, with a tighter and tighter
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forecaster that it would be a “fo
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eproductive health in the 10 years
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it or to await its coming as a natu
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As such, the country-specific proje
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Although mathematical demographers
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target life expectancy is reached,
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ties, most of the non-technical dis
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limbs, so that, being deprived of t
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est rate of growth in the world (cu
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the whole of Asia (3.7 billion) is
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In late 2003, the United Nations Po
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panied by a significant degree of n
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TABLE A1. POPULATION OF THE WORLD B
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TABLE A2. AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF CH
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TABLE A3. TOTAL FERTILITY OF THE WO
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TABLE A4. LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH
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TABLE A5. TOTAL POPULATION BY MAJOR
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TABLE A6. AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF PO
Page 205 and 206:
TABLE A7. TOTAL FERTILITY BY MAJOR
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Africa TABLE A8. LIFE EXPECTANCY AT
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TABLE A9. TOTAL FERTILITY OF THE WO
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TABLE A10 (continued) Major area an
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TABLE A11 (continued) Country or ar
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Page 217 and 218:
TABLE A12. AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF P
Page 219 and 220:
Page 221 and 222:
Page 223 and 224:
1950- 1955 TABLE A13 (continued) 20
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1950- 1955 TABLE A13 (continued) 20
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Country or area TABLE A14. MALE LIF
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Country or area TABLE A14 (continue
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Page 233 and 234:
Page 235 and 236:
Page 237 and 238:
TABLE A16. POPULATION DENSITY BY CO
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Page 241 and 242:
Page 243 and 244:
Page 245 and 246:
Page 247 and 248:
TABLE A18. PROPORTION OF BROAD AGE
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TABLE A18 (continued) Major area an
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TABLE A19 (continued) Demographic w
Page 253 and 254:
TABLE A19 (continued) Demographic w
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WORLD POPULATION TO 2300

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