WORLD POPULATION TO 2300

Population (millions)
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Northern Africa
Western Africa
Middle Africa
Eastern Africa
Southern Africa
shortly after 2025—it had only 150 million people
in 1950—and will be approaching two billion by
2100.
But it will not get there in these projections.
Even before 2050, population growth is expected
to slow down. Figure 24, in which the 2000-2050
period is set off by vertical lines, shows declining
growth rates for these three regions of Africa,
though growth rates are even lower within Northern
and Southern Africa.
Beyond 2050, population growth substantially
moderates in each region—except in a perverse
sense for Southern Africa, where a growth rate,
still negative by 2050, slowly creeps back to positive
levels. As in 2000-2050, Eastern, Middle, and
Western Africa are again the three fastest growing
regions in the world in 2050-2100, though the
pace is much slower. Growth in these three regions
does turn negative by 2105 and falls to its
lowest level around 2035, about a quarter century
after similar turning points for Northern Africa.
Rapid growth in Eastern, Middle, and Western
Africa has much to do with high fertility (fig-
Figure 23. Total population, African regions: 1950-2300
1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300
ure 25). In 1995-2000, these three regions have by
far the highest fertility of any region of the world:
between 5.9 and 6.4 children per woman, at a time
when no other region reaches 4.5. By 2045-2050,
these three regions still have the highest fertility,
at around 2.5 children per woman, when almost
all regions are at 2.0 or below, and Northern and
Southern Africa are both at 1.9. By 2145-2150,
however, total fertility in Eastern, Middle, and
Western Africa has fallen marginally below that
in every other region, at 1.91-1.97, versus 2.04-
2.09 everywhere else. Given the way fertility is
projected, these three African regions will be the
last regions with subreplacement fertility, which
will not disappear until shortly after 2150. Population
growth in these three regions of Africa from
2050 to 2100, however, is still related to high fertility—not
entirely contemporaneous high total
fertility but also previous high fertility that has
produced a young population and consequently
many more children.
Figure 24 shows some irregular growth patterns
in the recent past, as well as an exceptionally
steep fall in the growth rate for Southern Africa.
Much of the irregularity, as well as the steep fall,
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division 29
World Population to 2300