WORLD POPULATION TO 2300

may be ascribed to HIV/AIDS. The projections
assume that HIV transmission slows, so the
weight of “extra” AIDS mortality is gradually
lifted, but not before adding millions of deaths
and dragging life expectancy down close to 40
years (figure 26). Only Northern Africa is spared
from this effect, which is greatest at the opposite
end of the continent, in Southern Africa. Note
again that both the projected declines in life expectancy
and the pre-2000 declines are derived
from epidemic models. The HIV/AIDS epidemic
does not entirely account for slower growth in
Southern Africa. Substantial fertility decline, earlier
than in Eastern, Middle and Western Africa
and ahead even of Northern Africa, also plays a
part (figure 25).
F. ASIA
Asia is four-and-a-half times as populous as Africa,
but by 2050 it will be less than three times as
populous. By 2100, it will be 2.2 times as populous,
essentially the ratio that will hold till 2300.
China and India make up 62 per cent of the major
area and therefore are important to distinguish
Life expectancy at birth
95
85
75
65
55
45
Figure 26. Life expectancy at birth, African regions: 1950-2300
(figure 27). Up to 2050, China’s share of the regional
population will diminish, though in absolute
terms its population will still grow slightly,
by 9 per cent over 50 years. India’s population, in
contrast, will increase in absolute terms by 51 per
cent, slightly faster than the rest of the major area.
Up to 2050, still faster growth—though short of
rates in several African regions—will take place
in the remainder of South-central Asia and in
Western Asia. Much slower growth will take
place in Eastern Asia (which includes, besides
China, the Koreas and Japan). Figure 28 suggests,
for 2000-2050, an upward gradient in growth rates
from east to west and roughly parallel declines in
growth. Eastern Asia outside China slips into
negative growth around 2015 and China around
2030, while the other regions maintain positive
growth past 2050.
Beyond 2050, growth rates converge, and cross
over in the decades around 2100. As often seen in
these projections, the slowest growing become the
fastest growing and vice versa, until the regions
converge again close to zero growth. By 2100,
India will have 1.46 billion people, or 29 per cent
Northern Africa
Western Africa
Middle Africa
Eastern Africa
Southern Africa
35
1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division 31
World Population to 2300