WORLD POPULATION TO 2300

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Figure 11. Significant world demographic events between 2000 and 2300 Year Demographic event In the projections to 2050, most of the population growth is in currently less developed regions rather than in currently more developed regions. From 2050 to 2300, in contrast, less developed regions are projected to decline marginally in size, from 7.70 to 7.69 billion, whereas more developed regions actually increase, from 1.22 to 1.28 billion (figure 12). Initially, the population growth rate for less developed regions will fall while the rate in more developed regions rises, the two crossing over around 2090. Then the trends will reverse until the growth rates converge permanently around 2210 (figure 13). High and low scenarios show similar patterns. The projected range between high and low projected populations is proportionally similar between more developed and less developed regions—though for less developed regions, with their substantially larger population, the difference between high and low absolute numbers is much greater. The eventually similar growth between more developed and less developed regions is produced by similar long-range assumptions, especially the Population (billions) 2005 Crude death rate starts rise (from 9.0 per 1000) 6.45 2025 Fertility falls to replacement (and keeps fallling) 7.85 2075 Crude death and birth rates intersect (at 11.4); 9.22 population reaches maximum 2105 Crude birth rate falls to minimum (at 10.7) 9.00 2115 Crude death rate reaches maximum (at 12.3); 8.86 growth rate at miminum (-.15% in 2105-2120) 2155 Fertility rises to replacement (and stays there) 8.47 2175 Crude death and birth rates intersect again (at 11.1) 8.43 2225 Fertility effects on growth have disappeared 8.62 assumptions that fertility will fall in all countries below replacement (in the medium scenario) and rebound to replacement after a period largely similar across countries of a century or so. Starting their fertility declines later, less developed regions will reach low fertility levels after more developed regions but also stay at these levels until a later date. Figure 14 shows that total fertility for the two groups crosses over around 2055 and eventually converges, just like the growth rates, with the cross-over and the convergence preceding similar points in the growth rates by roughly 50 years. The fact that growth converges for more developed and less developed regions is not surprising given the assumptions, and in a way less interesting than the time required for this convergence. In more developed regions, the crude death rate begins rising around 1970 and reaches its peak around 2045 (figure 15). It intersects with the crude birth rate in the course of this rise around 2010, starting a period of negative natural increase, and intersects again on a downward path 18 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division World Population to 2300
Average annual rate of change (per cent) Population (billions) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 Figure 12. Total population, more developed and less developed regions, estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2300 Less developed More developed 1.71 0.81 4.88 1.19 7.70 1.22 7.93 7.33 7.29 1.13 1.16 1.21 1.25 1.28 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 Figure 13. Average annual rate of change of the population of more developed and less developed regions, estimates and three scenarios: 1950-2300 -1.0 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division 19 World Population to 2300 7.51 7.69 Less developed High Medium Low More developed High Medium Low
Page 1: WORLD POPULATION TO 2300 United Nat
Page 4 and 5: The Department of Economic and Soci
Page 7 and 8: CONTENTS PREFACE...................
Page 9 and 10: No. Page 5. Twenty largest countrie
Page 11 and 12: No. Page A12. Average annual rate o
Page 13: PART ONE. REPORT xi
Page 16 and 17: ern Europe stands out with low life
Page 18 and 19: Projections to 2050, together with
Page 20 and 21: Annual population growth (percent)
Page 22 and 23: Total fertility (TFR) 2.9 2.8 2.7 2
Page 24 and 25: II. PROJECTIONS AFTER 2050: LONG-RA
Page 26 and 27: 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 F
Page 28 and 29: TABLE 1. POPULATION AND AVERAGE ANN
Page 30 and 31: Population (billions) 10 9 8 7 6 5
Page 34 and 35: Total fertility (children per woman
Page 36 and 37: D. MAJOR AREAS Among major areas (t
Page 38 and 39: to -0.09 per cent, and Northern Ame
Page 40 and 41: Crude death rate per thousand Diffe
Page 42 and 43: TABLE 4. AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF CHA
Page 44 and 45: Average annual rate of change (per
Page 46 and 47: Population (millions) 6,000 5,000 4
Page 48 and 49: Life expectancy at birth 100 90 80
Page 50 and 51: to grow much more rapidly, more tha
Page 52 and 53: Population (millions) Figure 35. To
Page 54 and 55: Life expectancy at birth 105 100 95
Page 56 and 57: TABLE 5. TWENTY LARGEST COUNTRIES A
Page 58 and 59: Population (millions) 180 160 140 1
Page 60 and 61: TABLE 8. POPULATION IN 2000 AND 210
Page 62 and 63: TABLE 8 (continued) Population (mil
Page 64 and 65: TABLE 8 (continued) Population (mil
Page 66 and 67: TABLE 9 (continued) Lowest Highest
Page 68 and 69: TABLE 9 (continued) Lowest Highest
Page 70 and 71: TABLE 10. COUNTRIES WITH THE HIGHES
Page 72 and 73: TABLE 11. COUNTRIES WITH THE LOWEST
Page 74 and 75: Female-male gap in years 10 8 6 4 2
Page 76 and 77: Since world population in 2300 is p
Page 78 and 79: TABLE 13. DENSITY IN PERSONS PER SQ
Page 80 and 81: Apart from coping with population s
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Major area TABLE 14. POPULATION IN
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TABLE 15. PERCENTAGE IN DIFFERENT A
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Percent Percent 60 55 50 45 40 Figu
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TABLE 16. START AND END YEAR OF THE
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Age in years 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 1
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large up to 2050. In 2050, the medi
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Date Africa Asia 1980 China-Hong Ko
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These projections were introduced a
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Population (billions) Figure 54. Wo
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PART TWO. ESSAYS
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But perhaps emotions are better und
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sider relationships that are mediat
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mother love and mother-child bondin
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marriage and fertility are associat
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1 Philosophy, especially German phi
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other generations, i.e. to it‘s c
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y setting the derivative of T with
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than that given, per head, to the o
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Case 1: Equal values of α for all
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___________________________________
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___________________________________
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III. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE UNITED
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0.3 per cent per annum. This would
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aise problems in a country already
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such low-fertility Asian countries
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tury. There was better contraceptio
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that by 2100 world consensus would
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TABLE 1. EVOLUTION OF THE POPULATIO
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In conclusion, the medium scenario
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The assumption on sub-replacement f
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Total fertility (children per woman
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where for decades net inward migrat
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Figure 2. Population of European re
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projections is that they underline
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offered. In the practice of the bie
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will exhibit different relative wei
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uring the demographic behavior of t
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ecome attractive, not because it is
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the world’s population - e.g. wit
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1,481 million), 2.05 births in Nort
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as long as three centuries, a major
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illion, with a tighter and tighter
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forecaster that it would be a “fo
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eproductive health in the 10 years
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it or to await its coming as a natu
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As such, the country-specific proje
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Although mathematical demographers
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target life expectancy is reached,
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ties, most of the non-technical dis
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limbs, so that, being deprived of t
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est rate of growth in the world (cu
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the whole of Asia (3.7 billion) is
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In late 2003, the United Nations Po
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panied by a significant degree of n
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TABLE A1. POPULATION OF THE WORLD B
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TABLE A2. AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF CH
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TABLE A3. TOTAL FERTILITY OF THE WO
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TABLE A4. LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH
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TABLE A5. TOTAL POPULATION BY MAJOR
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TABLE A6. AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF PO
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TABLE A7. TOTAL FERTILITY BY MAJOR
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Africa TABLE A8. LIFE EXPECTANCY AT
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TABLE A9. TOTAL FERTILITY OF THE WO
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TABLE A10 (continued) Major area an
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TABLE A11 (continued) Country or ar
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TABLE A12. AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF P
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1950- 1955 TABLE A13 (continued) 20
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1950- 1955 TABLE A13 (continued) 20
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Country or area TABLE A14. MALE LIF
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Country or area TABLE A14 (continue
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TABLE A16. POPULATION DENSITY BY CO
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TABLE A18. PROPORTION OF BROAD AGE
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TABLE A18 (continued) Major area an
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TABLE A19 (continued) Demographic w
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TABLE A19 (continued) Demographic w
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WORLD POPULATION TO 2300

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