WORLD POPULATION TO 2300

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No. Page PART TWO. ESSAYS I. TOWARDS AN UNDERSTANDING OF THE EMOTIONS IN THE POPULAITON OF 2300 Alaka Basu.............................................................................................................................................. 89 II. AN INTERGENERATIONAL RATIONALE FOR FERTILITY ASSUMPTIONS IN LONG-RANGE WORLD POPULATION PROJECTIONS Herwig Birg............................................................................................................................................ 99 III. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE UNITED NATIONS LONG-RANGE POPULATION PROJECTIONS John Caldwell......................................................................................................................................... 112 IV. COMPARING LONG-RANGE GLOBAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS WITH HISTORICAL EXPERIENCE Joel Cohen.............................................................................................................................................. 123 V. WORLD POPULATION IN 2300: A CENTURY TOO FAR? David Coleman....................................................................................................................................... 127 VI. POPULATION FUTURES FOR THE NEXT THREE HUNDRED YEARS: SOFT LANDING OR SURPRISES TO COME? Paul Demeny .......................................................................................................................................... 137 VII. WHY THE WORLD’S POPULATION WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN 9 BILLION IN 2300 Timothy Dyson........................................................................................................................................ 145 VIII. REFLECTIONS ON THE NEXT FEW CENTURIES François Héran ...................................................................................................................................... 151 IX. THE FUTURE OF HUMAN LIFE EXPECTANCY S. Jay Olshansky..................................................................................................................................... 159 X. PROJECTING THE UNKNOWABLE: A PROFESSIONAL EFFORT SURE TO BE MISINTERPRETED Michael Teitelbaum................................................................................................................................ 165 XI. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE UNITED NATIONS LONG-RANGE POPULATION PROJECTIONS: CONTINUING RAPID POPULATION GROWTH Charles F. Westoff.................................................................................................................................. 169 XII. FORETELLING THE FUTURE John R. Wilmoth ..................................................................................................................................... 174 TABLES No. Page 1. Population and average annual rate of change of the world and development groups, estimates and three scenarios: 1950-2300..................................................................................................................................... 14 2. Population, average annual rate of change, and distribution of world population, by major area, estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2300.................................................................................................................. 22 3. Population by major area and region, estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2300...................................... 27 4. Average annual rate of change for 50 year-year periods, by major area and region, estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2300 ...................................................................................................................................... 28 vi
No. Page 5. Twenty largest countries and their populations, selected years..................................................................... 42 6. Countries with the highest and lowest average annual rate of change over 50-year periods......................... 43 7. Countries with the largest increases and decreases over 50-year periods...................................................... 45 8. Population in 2000 and 2100, minimum and maximum size up to 2300, and percentage change to these points from 2000, by country ........................................................................................................................ 46 9. Highest and lowest average annual rate of population change in any five-year period, by country: 2000-2300...................................................................................................................................................... 51 10. Countries with the highest and lowest total fertility, estimates and medium scenario, selected periods....... 56 11. Countries with the lowest and highest life expectancy at birth, selected periods .......................................... 58 12. Countries with the smallest and largest gap between female and male life expectancies, selected periods .. 61 13. Density in persons per square kilometer of land, by major area and region: 1950-2300............................... 64 14. Population in broad age groups and percentage change over long periods, major areas............................... 68 15. Percentage in different age groups, by major area: 1950-2300 ..................................................................... 70 16. Start and end of the demographic window phase and corresponding dependency ratio, by major area and region, estimates and medium scenario ......................................................................................................... 74 17. Dependency threshold ages and post-retirement duration, by major area and region, selected years ........... 75 18. Countries with the lowest and highest median ages, selected years .............................................................. 77 19. Starting date for entering the demographic window phase by country, classified by major area.................. 79 FIGURES 1. Estimated world population, 1950-2000, and projections: 2000-2050.......................................................... 5 2. Average annual rate of population change, major areas: 1950-2050............................................................. 6 3. Total fertility, major areas: 1950-2050.......................................................................................................... 6 4. World total fertility and life expectancy at birth: 1995-2050 ........................................................................ 8 5. Maximum and minimum country values in each period for net reproduction rate and average annual rate of population change: 2050-2300.................................................................................................................. 12 6. Estimated world population: 1950-2000, and projections: 2000-2300.......................................................... 13 7. Change in world population over 50-year periods, estimates and three scenarios: 1950-2300 ..................... 13 8. Average annual rate of change of the world population and total fertility, estimates and three scenarios: 1950-2300...................................................................................................................................................... 15 9. Comparison of world population and net reproduction rate with previous long-range projections, estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2150.................................................................................................. 16 10. Crude birth and death rate and rate of natural increase for the world, estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2300...................................................................................................................................................... 17 11. Significant world demographic events between 2000 and 2300.................................................................... 18 12. Total population, more developed and less developed regions, estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2300...................................................................................................................................................... 19 13. Average annual rate of population change, more developed and less developed regions, estimates and three scenarios: 1950-2300............................................................................................................................ 19 14. Total fertility, more developed and less developed regions, estimates and three scenarios: 1950-2300 ....... 20 15. Crude birth and death rate, more developed and less developed regions, estimates and three scenarios: 1950-2300...................................................................................................................................................... 20 16. Male and female life expectancy at birth, more developed and less developed regions: 1950-2300 ............ 21 17. Population in major areas, estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2300 ....................................................... 23 18. Average annual rate of population change, major areas, estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2300......... 23 19. Total fertility, major areas, estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2175 ...................................................... 24 20. Periods when net reproduction rate is below 1, major areas, estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2200... 25 21. Crude death rate and points of intersection with crude birth rate, major areas, estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2300 ...................................................................................................................................... 26 22. Difference between life expectancy at birth in each major area and in Latin America and the Caribbean: 1950-2300...................................................................................................................................................... 26 vii
Page 1: WORLD POPULATION TO 2300 United Nat
Page 4 and 5: The Department of Economic and Soci
Page 7: CONTENTS PREFACE...................
Page 11 and 12: No. Page A12. Average annual rate o
Page 13: PART ONE. REPORT xi
Page 16 and 17: ern Europe stands out with low life
Page 18 and 19: Projections to 2050, together with
Page 20 and 21: Annual population growth (percent)
Page 22 and 23: Total fertility (TFR) 2.9 2.8 2.7 2
Page 24 and 25: II. PROJECTIONS AFTER 2050: LONG-RA
Page 26 and 27: 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 F
Page 28 and 29: TABLE 1. POPULATION AND AVERAGE ANN
Page 30 and 31: Population (billions) 10 9 8 7 6 5
Page 32 and 33: Figure 11. Significant world demogr
Page 34 and 35: Total fertility (children per woman
Page 36 and 37: D. MAJOR AREAS Among major areas (t
Page 38 and 39: to -0.09 per cent, and Northern Ame
Page 40 and 41: Crude death rate per thousand Diffe
Page 42 and 43: TABLE 4. AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF CHA
Page 44 and 45: Average annual rate of change (per
Page 46 and 47: Population (millions) 6,000 5,000 4
Page 48 and 49: Life expectancy at birth 100 90 80
Page 50 and 51: to grow much more rapidly, more tha
Page 52 and 53: Population (millions) Figure 35. To
Page 54 and 55: Life expectancy at birth 105 100 95
Page 56 and 57: TABLE 5. TWENTY LARGEST COUNTRIES A
Page 58 and 59:
Population (millions) 180 160 140 1
Page 60 and 61:
TABLE 8. POPULATION IN 2000 AND 210
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TABLE 8 (continued) Population (mil
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TABLE 8 (continued) Population (mil
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TABLE 9 (continued) Lowest Highest
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TABLE 9 (continued) Lowest Highest
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TABLE 10. COUNTRIES WITH THE HIGHES
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TABLE 11. COUNTRIES WITH THE LOWEST
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Female-male gap in years 10 8 6 4 2
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Since world population in 2300 is p
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TABLE 13. DENSITY IN PERSONS PER SQ
Page 80 and 81:
Apart from coping with population s
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Major area TABLE 14. POPULATION IN
Page 84 and 85:
TABLE 15. PERCENTAGE IN DIFFERENT A
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Percent Percent 60 55 50 45 40 Figu
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TABLE 16. START AND END YEAR OF THE
Page 90 and 91:
Age in years 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 1
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large up to 2050. In 2050, the medi
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Date Africa Asia 1980 China-Hong Ko
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These projections were introduced a
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Population (billions) Figure 54. Wo
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PART TWO. ESSAYS
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But perhaps emotions are better und
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sider relationships that are mediat
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mother love and mother-child bondin
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marriage and fertility are associat
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1 Philosophy, especially German phi
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other generations, i.e. to it‘s c
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y setting the derivative of T with
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than that given, per head, to the o
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Case 1: Equal values of α for all
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___________________________________
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___________________________________
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III. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE UNITED
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0.3 per cent per annum. This would
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aise problems in a country already
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such low-fertility Asian countries
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tury. There was better contraceptio
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that by 2100 world consensus would
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TABLE 1. EVOLUTION OF THE POPULATIO
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In conclusion, the medium scenario
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The assumption on sub-replacement f
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Total fertility (children per woman
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where for decades net inward migrat
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Figure 2. Population of European re
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projections is that they underline
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offered. In the practice of the bie
Page 154 and 155:
will exhibit different relative wei
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uring the demographic behavior of t
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ecome attractive, not because it is
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the world’s population - e.g. wit
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1,481 million), 2.05 births in Nort
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as long as three centuries, a major
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illion, with a tighter and tighter
Page 168 and 169:
forecaster that it would be a “fo
Page 170 and 171:
eproductive health in the 10 years
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it or to await its coming as a natu
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As such, the country-specific proje
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Although mathematical demographers
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target life expectancy is reached,
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ties, most of the non-technical dis
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limbs, so that, being deprived of t
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est rate of growth in the world (cu
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the whole of Asia (3.7 billion) is
Page 188 and 189:
In late 2003, the United Nations Po
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panied by a significant degree of n
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TABLE A1. POPULATION OF THE WORLD B
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TABLE A2. AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF CH
Page 197 and 198:
TABLE A3. TOTAL FERTILITY OF THE WO
Page 199 and 200:
TABLE A4. LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH
Page 201 and 202:
TABLE A5. TOTAL POPULATION BY MAJOR
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TABLE A6. AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF PO
Page 205 and 206:
TABLE A7. TOTAL FERTILITY BY MAJOR
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Africa TABLE A8. LIFE EXPECTANCY AT
Page 209 and 210:
TABLE A9. TOTAL FERTILITY OF THE WO
Page 211 and 212:
TABLE A10 (continued) Major area an
Page 213 and 214:
TABLE A11 (continued) Country or ar
Page 215 and 216:
Page 217 and 218:
TABLE A12. AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF P
Page 219 and 220:
Page 221 and 222:
Page 223 and 224:
1950- 1955 TABLE A13 (continued) 20
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1950- 1955 TABLE A13 (continued) 20
Page 227 and 228:
Country or area TABLE A14. MALE LIF
Page 229 and 230:
Country or area TABLE A14 (continue
Page 231 and 232:
Page 233 and 234:
Page 235 and 236:
Page 237 and 238:
TABLE A16. POPULATION DENSITY BY CO
Page 239 and 240:
Page 241 and 242:
Page 243 and 244:
Page 245 and 246:
Page 247 and 248:
TABLE A18. PROPORTION OF BROAD AGE
Page 249 and 250:
TABLE A18 (continued) Major area an
Page 251 and 252:
TABLE A19 (continued) Demographic w
Page 253 and 254:
TABLE A19 (continued) Demographic w
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WORLD POPULATION TO 2300

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