WORLD POPULATION TO 2300

of the Asian population. China will have 24 per
cent of the Asian population, South-central Asia
outside India 20 per cent, South-eastern Asia
15 per cent, Western Asia 9 per cent, and Eastern
Asia outside China 3 per cent. Despite the twists
and turns of subsequent growth rates, this distribution
will not change much up to 2300.
Unlike growth rates in the 2000-2050 period,
the fertility and mortality trends that underlie
them are not strictly parallel. Total fertility in
Western Asia is somewhat lower than in Southcentral
Asia outside India, but is projected to decline
somewhat more slowly (figure 29). Fertility
takes the longest to reach 1.85 in Western Asia,
where it also takes the longest to recover to replacement
level. Life expectancy in Western Asia
trails only China and the rest of Eastern Asia, and
is projected to overtake China by 2015 (figure
30). But beyond that, gains for Western Asia are
slighter. In the long run, China, and especially the
rest of Eastern Asia, will maintain a substantial
advantage over the rest of the major area. By
2300, life expectancy in the rest of Eastern Asia
will be four years longer than in China, while life
Total fertility
7
6
5
4
3
2
Figure 29. Total fertility, Asian regions: 1950-2175
expectancy in China is at least three years longer
than in the other Asian regions. Among these
other regions, some rearrangement also takes
place. Life expectancy in India, now 2.5 years
above that in the rest of South-central Asia, will
rise slowly and fall below by 2020, but recover
and pass South-central Asia around 2075. In the
long run, these two regions, as well as Western
Asia and South-eastern Asia, should have life expectancies
around 94-96 years.
G. LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
With 8.6 per cent of world population in 2000,
Latin America and the Caribbean has a seventh of
the population of Asia, and this ratio is projected
to hardly change through 2300. Population does
grow from 2000 to 2050, from 520 to 768 million,
but after 2050, a slight decline sets in. Latin
America and the Caribbean can be divided into
not quite equal thirds: Brazil (with 30 per cent of
regional population in 2050), the rest of South
America (36 per cent), and Central America, including
Mexico (28 per cent). The remaining
6 per cent of the population in 2050 will be in the
Western Asia
1
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 2175
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division 33
World Population to 2300
India
Other South-central Asia
South-eastern Asia
China
Other Eastern Asia