WORLD POPULATION TO 2300

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D. MAJOR AREAS Among major areas (table 2), the 2002 Revision shows Africa and Europe at opposite ends of the spectrum, with the highest and lowest projected growth rates to 2050. Differences in growth across major areas eventually resolve themselves. African growth slows from 2050 to 2100, and over the following two centuries, Africa’s share of world population will actually shrink slightly while Europe’s share will grow slightly (figure 17). Growth rates for the six major areas show the same pattern already seen for the world as a whole: an initial decline toward zero growth, the decline starting in the twentieth century; then about a century of subzero growth, meaning population decline; and an eventual return to positive growth but at a very low rate, generally close to 0.05 per cent annually (figure 18). The notable exception to this pattern is Northern America, whose growth rate does decline and recover but never falls below zero. As noted above, growth in Northern America is supported throughout the first half of the twenty-first century by substantial net immigration. Another major area of relatively high net immigration, Oceania, does experience negative growth, but for 65 years rather than a century. The major areas differ in how low growth falls and in the timing of the decline. Growth falls to a lower level than anywhere else in Europe (-0.53 per cent annually). For Latin America and the Caribbean, Africa, and Asia, the lowest point is only half as low. Oceania has a shallow decline TABLE 2. POPULATION, AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE, AND DISTRIBUTION OF WORLD POPULATION, BY MAJOR AREA, ESTIMATES AND MEDIUM SCENARIO: 1950-2300 Year or period Africa Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Oceania Northern America Europe Population (millions) 1950...................... 221.2 1 398.5 167.1 12.8 171.6 547.4 2000...................... 795.7 3 679.7 520.2 31.0 315.9 728.0 2050...................... 1 803.3 5 222.1 767.7 45.8 447.9 631.9 2100...................... 2 254.3 5 019.2 732.5 46.1 473.6 538.4 2150...................... 2 083.1 4 650.8 675.0 44.8 490.1 550.4 2200...................... 2 008.2 4 681.7 680.8 45.5 508.8 573.7 2250...................... 2 060.4 4 824.0 703.5 47.0 523.0 593.8 2300...................... 2 112.7 4 943.2 722.7 48.4 534.1 611.3 Average annual rate of change (per cent) 1950-2000............. 2.560 1.935 2.271 1.770 1.220 0.570 2000-2050............. 1.636 0.700 0.778 0.778 0.698 -0.283 2050-2100............. 0.446 -0.079 -0.094 0.010 0.111 -0.320 2100-2150............. -0.158 -0.152 -0.164 -0.056 0.069 0.044 2150-2200............. -0.073 0.013 0.017 0.031 0.075 0.083 2200-2250............. 0.051 0.060 0.065 0.065 0.055 0.069 2250-2300............. 0.050 0.049 0.054 0.058 0.042 0.058 Percentage distribution of world population 1950...................... 8.8 55.5 6.6 0.5 6.8 21.7 2000...................... 13.1 60.6 8.6 0.5 5.2 12.0 2050...................... 20.2 58.6 8.6 0.5 5.0 7.1 2100...................... 24.9 55.4 8.1 0.5 5.2 5.9 2150...................... 24.5 54.8 7.9 0.5 5.8 6.5 2200...................... 23.6 55.1 8.0 0.5 6.0 6.8 2250...................... 23.5 55.1 8.0 0.5 6.0 6.8 2300...................... 23.5 55.1 8.1 0.5 6.0 6.8 22 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division World Population to 2300
Population (billions) (per cent) Average annual rate of change 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 Figure 17. Population in major areas, estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2300 Africa Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Oceania Northern America Europe 0 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 Figure 18. Average annual rate of change of the population of major areas, estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2300 -1.0 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division 23 World Population to 2300 Africa Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Oceania Northern America Europe
Page 1: WORLD POPULATION TO 2300 United Nat
Page 4 and 5: The Department of Economic and Soci
Page 7 and 8: CONTENTS PREFACE...................
Page 9 and 10: No. Page 5. Twenty largest countrie
Page 11 and 12: No. Page A12. Average annual rate o
Page 13: PART ONE. REPORT xi
Page 16 and 17: ern Europe stands out with low life
Page 18 and 19: Projections to 2050, together with
Page 20 and 21: Annual population growth (percent)
Page 22 and 23: Total fertility (TFR) 2.9 2.8 2.7 2
Page 24 and 25: II. PROJECTIONS AFTER 2050: LONG-RA
Page 26 and 27: 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 F
Page 28 and 29: TABLE 1. POPULATION AND AVERAGE ANN
Page 30 and 31: Population (billions) 10 9 8 7 6 5
Page 32 and 33: Figure 11. Significant world demogr
Page 34 and 35: Total fertility (children per woman
Page 38 and 39: to -0.09 per cent, and Northern Ame
Page 40 and 41: Crude death rate per thousand Diffe
Page 42 and 43: TABLE 4. AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF CHA
Page 44 and 45: Average annual rate of change (per
Page 46 and 47: Population (millions) 6,000 5,000 4
Page 48 and 49: Life expectancy at birth 100 90 80
Page 50 and 51: to grow much more rapidly, more tha
Page 52 and 53: Population (millions) Figure 35. To
Page 54 and 55: Life expectancy at birth 105 100 95
Page 56 and 57: TABLE 5. TWENTY LARGEST COUNTRIES A
Page 58 and 59: Population (millions) 180 160 140 1
Page 60 and 61: TABLE 8. POPULATION IN 2000 AND 210
Page 62 and 63: TABLE 8 (continued) Population (mil
Page 64 and 65: TABLE 8 (continued) Population (mil
Page 66 and 67: TABLE 9 (continued) Lowest Highest
Page 68 and 69: TABLE 9 (continued) Lowest Highest
Page 70 and 71: TABLE 10. COUNTRIES WITH THE HIGHES
Page 72 and 73: TABLE 11. COUNTRIES WITH THE LOWEST
Page 74 and 75: Female-male gap in years 10 8 6 4 2
Page 76 and 77: Since world population in 2300 is p
Page 78 and 79: TABLE 13. DENSITY IN PERSONS PER SQ
Page 80 and 81: Apart from coping with population s
Page 82 and 83: Major area TABLE 14. POPULATION IN
Page 84 and 85: TABLE 15. PERCENTAGE IN DIFFERENT A
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Percent Percent 60 55 50 45 40 Figu
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TABLE 16. START AND END YEAR OF THE
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Age in years 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 1
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large up to 2050. In 2050, the medi
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Date Africa Asia 1980 China-Hong Ko
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These projections were introduced a
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Population (billions) Figure 54. Wo
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PART TWO. ESSAYS
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But perhaps emotions are better und
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sider relationships that are mediat
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mother love and mother-child bondin
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marriage and fertility are associat
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1 Philosophy, especially German phi
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other generations, i.e. to it‘s c
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y setting the derivative of T with
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than that given, per head, to the o
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Case 1: Equal values of α for all
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___________________________________
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___________________________________
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III. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE UNITED
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0.3 per cent per annum. This would
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aise problems in a country already
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such low-fertility Asian countries
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tury. There was better contraceptio
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that by 2100 world consensus would
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TABLE 1. EVOLUTION OF THE POPULATIO
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In conclusion, the medium scenario
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The assumption on sub-replacement f
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Total fertility (children per woman
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where for decades net inward migrat
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Figure 2. Population of European re
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projections is that they underline
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offered. In the practice of the bie
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will exhibit different relative wei
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uring the demographic behavior of t
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ecome attractive, not because it is
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the world’s population - e.g. wit
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1,481 million), 2.05 births in Nort
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as long as three centuries, a major
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illion, with a tighter and tighter
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forecaster that it would be a “fo
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eproductive health in the 10 years
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it or to await its coming as a natu
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As such, the country-specific proje
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Although mathematical demographers
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target life expectancy is reached,
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ties, most of the non-technical dis
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limbs, so that, being deprived of t
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est rate of growth in the world (cu
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the whole of Asia (3.7 billion) is
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In late 2003, the United Nations Po
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panied by a significant degree of n
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TABLE A1. POPULATION OF THE WORLD B
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TABLE A2. AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF CH
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TABLE A3. TOTAL FERTILITY OF THE WO
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TABLE A4. LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH
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TABLE A5. TOTAL POPULATION BY MAJOR
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TABLE A6. AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF PO
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TABLE A7. TOTAL FERTILITY BY MAJOR
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Africa TABLE A8. LIFE EXPECTANCY AT
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TABLE A9. TOTAL FERTILITY OF THE WO
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TABLE A10 (continued) Major area an
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TABLE A11 (continued) Country or ar
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TABLE A12. AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF P
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Page 221 and 222:
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1950- 1955 TABLE A13 (continued) 20
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1950- 1955 TABLE A13 (continued) 20
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Country or area TABLE A14. MALE LIF
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Country or area TABLE A14 (continue
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TABLE A16. POPULATION DENSITY BY CO
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TABLE A18. PROPORTION OF BROAD AGE
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TABLE A18 (continued) Major area an
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TABLE A19 (continued) Demographic w
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TABLE A19 (continued) Demographic w
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WORLD POPULATION TO 2300

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