i AN ASSESSMENT OF TOMATO PRICE VARIABILITY IN LUSAKA ...

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KEY TO ABBREVIATIONS FFV Fresh Fruits and Vegetables FDI Foreign Direct Investment FSRP Food Security Research Project GDP Gross Domestic Product Ksh Kenyan Shilling MACO Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives M-W-F Monday-Wednesday-Friday NRDC Natural Resources Development College PPP Purchasing Parity Prices RNPE Ratio of the mean absolute values of negative to positive errors SSA Sub Saharan Africa UCS Urban Consumption Survey UILTCB USAID Initiative for Long Term Capacity Building UMDP Urban Markets Development Program UN United Nations USD United States Dollar US/USA United States of America USAID United States of America Wk Week ZEGA Zambia Export Growers Association Zkw Zambian Kwacha xii
1.1 Background CHAPTER 1 <strong>IN</strong>TRODUCTION Research and programmatic activity on the horticultural sector in Africa over the past 15 years has been dominated by two issues: increasing horticultural exports and the influence of emerging supermarkets on horticulture trends. Early in the period, Kenya’s success in exporting fresh produce to Europe led to a large body of research documenting the process and assessing its effects. For instance Jaffee (1995) investigated the organization and development of a dynamic African export oriented sector, specifically, Kenya’s horticultural exports. Other documented research bring to light the recent developments in Sub Saharan Africa horticulture exports and the success story in Kenya’s horticulture sector (Swernberg 1995; Kimenye 1995; Stevens and Kennan 1999; Dolan et al. 1999; Harris et al. 2001; Minot and Ngigi 2002). With the success that has been recorded in Kenya’s horticultural export sector, this has also led to many programmatic initiatives across the continent to help countries exploit what was seen as a rapidly growing and potentially very lucrative market. In Zambia for instance, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has been instrumental in increasing exports of horticulture and floriculture products in recent years. Much of the investment has gone into the transfer of skills and knowledge, the introduction of new varieties of flowers and vegetables, and made local farmers more familiar with the use of new pest control methods and irrigation. For instance, the Natural Resources Development College/Zambia Export Growers’ Association (NRDC/ZEGA) was set up mainly by exporters, most of them foreign firms, in partnership with the government of Zambia. 1
Page 1 and 2: AN ASSESSMENT OF TOMATO PRICE VARIA
Page 3 and 4: DEDICATION This thesis is dedicated
Page 5 and 6: to the Dean, School of Agricultural
Page 7 and 8: 3.4.1 Variability and Predictabilit
Page 9 and 10: LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1: Budget Sh
Page 11: LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: Geograp
Page 15 and 16: (Ksh 1 )7.5 billion) of total veget
Page 17 and 18: chains and independent supermarkets
Page 19 and 20: towards lowering the costs, encoura
Page 21 and 22: Chapter 5 concludes the thesis with
Page 23 and 24: andomized cluster sample design. Th
Page 25 and 26: 2.2 Methods With these three sets o
Page 27 and 28: perceptions of farmers and traders
Page 29 and 30: Table 2.2: Budget Share of Differen
Page 31 and 32: Table 2.3: Budget Share of Differen
Page 33 and 34: Figure 2.1: Channel Map for Tomato
Page 35 and 36: Table 2.4: Key Characteristics of T
Page 37 and 38: Table 2.6 cont’d Area Province Ma
Page 39 and 40: Figure 2.2: Monthly Soweto Wholesal
Page 41 and 42: from all 150 supply areas while cha
Page 43 and 44: Table 2.7: Retail Outlet Market Sha
Page 45 and 46: Table 2.9: Retail Outlet Market Sha
Page 47 and 48: Freshmark mostly prefers to have la
Page 49 and 50: With the dual procurement system th
Page 51 and 52: Compared to Soweto market which had
Page 53 and 54: During this period, tomato prices w
Page 55 and 56: Figure 2.4: Tomato Pricing at Whole
Page 57 and 58: Table 2.11: Mean Tomato Prices for
Page 59 and 60: 2.5 Summary and Conclusions 2.5.1 I
Page 61 and 62: In the period January 2007 to June
Page 63 and 64:
CHAPTER 3 TOMATO PRICE VARIABILITY
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In the hot wet season, disease prev
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patterns differ across markets, red
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case of a flood, its effects could
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3.2 Hypothesis Testing The level of
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Table 3.2: Description of Data Used
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Coefficient of Variation= Where;
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Where; P t - the observed tomato pr
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A look at price variability in each
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For further comparison of the mean
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Figure 3.2: Comparison of the Ratio
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Figure 3.4: Comparison of Condition
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thereby making the farmers more con
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d. The absence of cold chain system
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depend on local suppliers for their
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The provision of market information
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upon arrival in the market. Lower q
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- Assets used in tomato production,
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Tomato price data used for analysis
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4.4 The Monte Carlo Model The Basel
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CF Fixed conversion factor of 37.
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- Seedling costs - Seed costs - Fie
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differences were due to differences
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Table 4.2: Farmer Characteristics B
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Group 1 Table 4.4: Basic Informatio
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farmers can in practice suffer a to
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4.5.2 Simulation Results for the Di
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Scenario 1: Increased Sales Frequen
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knowledge of what their yields and
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Table 4.12: The Effect of Supply Ch
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Table 4.13: Production of Low and H
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quality; when supplies are high in
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etter farmers would attempt to have
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CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION This study was
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top twelve tomato supply areas acco
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Freshpikt and Rivonia are the main
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on prediction errors from a price p
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absence of a cold chain system, the
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price variability, the expectation
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In the scenario analysis of increas
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price variability affects the diffe
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facilitate the provision of low cos
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APPENDICES 135
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i. What type of farmers do they pre
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Taipei, Taiwan Table A2.3. Model Su
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Colombo, Sri Lanka A2.7. Model Summ
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APPENDIX 3. Graphs of Price Predict
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Figure A3.3. Price Prediction Resid
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Figure A3.5. Price Prediction Resid
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9. Name of Main Respondent (if diff
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SECTION 3 - HARVEST AND SALES OF CR
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SECTION 4 - PLANTING AND HARVEST PA
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155 _______________ _______________
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5.2 Planted Seedlings Phase Field #
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PHASE 2 - FIELD PREPARATION 5.5 Enu
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5.7 Irrigation prior to transplanti
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4=Spraying 5=Weeding 6=Placement of
Page 177 and 178:
Field # Please list all the types o
Page 179 and 180:
that you used in your tomato produc
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Trailer Van/light truck Borehole Bo
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Field # Time from 1 st harvest Phas
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Second Field Field # Time from 1 st
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Field # Time from 1 st harvest Phas
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Second field: 8.0 Harvesting and Ma
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APPENDIX 5. Distribution of Sampled
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Figure A6.2. Distributions for Cost
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Figure A6.4. Distributions for Cost
Page 197 and 198:
APPENDIX 7. Histograms of Farmer Pr
Page 199 and 200:
Figure A7.3. Baseline Scenario: His
Page 201 and 202:
Figure A7.5. Increased Sales Freque
Page 203 and 204:
Figure A7.7. Increased Sales Freque
Page 205 and 206:
Figure A7.9. Supply Chain Improveme
Page 207 and 208:
Figure A7.11. Supply Chain Improvem
Page 209 and 210:
Figure A7.13. Scenario on Quality o
Page 211 and 212:
Figure A7.15. Scenario on Quality o
Page 213 and 214:
Figure A7.17. Scenario on Low Quali
Page 215 and 216:
Figure A7.19. Scenario on Low Quali
Page 217 and 218:
BIBLIOGRAPHY 205
Page 219:
Stevens, C. and J. Kennan (1999). W
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