i AN ASSESSMENT OF TOMATO PRICE VARIABILITY IN LUSAKA ...

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were supplied in the high price months of February to April 2007 and December 2007 to January 2008. Eighteen percent of the tomatoes that enter Soweto market come through traders (Channels 4-6). The tomatoes from the traders are originally from the farm areas but are channeled through these intermediaries before they finally reach Soweto market. Channel 4 represents the tomatoes that come from the small farm areas to the traders, while channel 5 represents tomatoes from the medium farm areas to the traders and finally channel 6 representing tomatoes from the large farm areas to the traders. Tomatoes from the different supply areas are then wholesaled in Soweto and Bauleni markets and then eventually channeled out to the retail outlets. Among the various retail outlets are the open air markets which account for 67% of the volumes of tomatoes, followed by the Ka sector with 24%, with the remaining 9% being transacted in the grocery mini marts (5%), large super market chains (
Table 2.7: Retail Outlet Market Shares on Overall Food (Lusaka) Market Group /Retail Share for Share for Share for Share for Share for Outlet all foods all FFV Vegetables fruits tomatoes Open Air Market 0.32 0.55 0.64 0.45 0.67 Ka Sector 0.16 0.20 0.20 0.21 0.24 Grocer / Mini mart 0.21 0.01 0.02 0.003 0.05 Own Production 0.02 0.09 0.07 0.13 0.01 Private HH 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Gift Large Independent 0.03 0.06 0.04 0.09 0.01 Supermarkets 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Large Supermarket Chains 0.09 0.05 0.02 0.09 0.003 Butcher 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Small Supermarkets 0.01 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.00 Other Purchasing Channel 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Baker 0.001 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Source: Food Security Research Project Urban Consumption Survey Data 2007 The broader literature 12 on supermarket expansion in the developing world shows that the general pattern of their development has mainly been through the spread of foreign direct investment (FDI). Zambia is no exception. Much of the FDI in supermarkets in Zambia is from South Africa where the supermarket share of the national food retail is 55% 13 . The shares in South Africa are similar to those found in some Latin American countries such as Argentina and Chile 14 . In Zambia however, the growth rate of these supermarkets has not been as fast as in these parts of the world and hence the small share they have in the retail outlet markets. Further analysis on the retail outlet market shares for all FFV purchases made by the households by the expenditure quartiles was conducted, and the results show that the traditional retail still ranks highest among all the retail outlets used by all the expenditure quartile groups (Table 2.6). In the two lowest income quartiles, the open air markets and 12 Reardon and Timmer, 2006; Tschirley 2007 13 Weatherspoon and Reardon, 2003. 14 Weatherspoon and Reardon, 2003. 31
Page 1 and 2: AN ASSESSMENT OF TOMATO PRICE VARIA
Page 3 and 4: DEDICATION This thesis is dedicated
Page 5 and 6: to the Dean, School of Agricultural
Page 7 and 8: 3.4.1 Variability and Predictabilit
Page 9 and 10: LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1: Budget Sh
Page 11 and 12: LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: Geograp
Page 13 and 14: 1.1 Background CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTI
Page 15 and 16: (Ksh 1 )7.5 billion) of total veget
Page 17 and 18: chains and independent supermarkets
Page 19 and 20: towards lowering the costs, encoura
Page 21 and 22: Chapter 5 concludes the thesis with
Page 23 and 24: andomized cluster sample design. Th
Page 25 and 26: 2.2 Methods With these three sets o
Page 27 and 28: perceptions of farmers and traders
Page 29 and 30: Table 2.2: Budget Share of Differen
Page 31 and 32: Table 2.3: Budget Share of Differen
Page 33 and 34: Figure 2.1: Channel Map for Tomato
Page 35 and 36: Table 2.4: Key Characteristics of T
Page 37 and 38: Table 2.6 cont’d Area Province Ma
Page 39 and 40: Figure 2.2: Monthly Soweto Wholesal
Page 41: from all 150 supply areas while cha
Page 45 and 46: Table 2.9: Retail Outlet Market Sha
Page 47 and 48: Freshmark mostly prefers to have la
Page 49 and 50: With the dual procurement system th
Page 51 and 52: Compared to Soweto market which had
Page 53 and 54: During this period, tomato prices w
Page 55 and 56: Figure 2.4: Tomato Pricing at Whole
Page 57 and 58: Table 2.11: Mean Tomato Prices for
Page 59 and 60: 2.5 Summary and Conclusions 2.5.1 I
Page 61 and 62: In the period January 2007 to June
Page 63 and 64: CHAPTER 3 TOMATO PRICE VARIABILITY
Page 65 and 66: In the hot wet season, disease prev
Page 67 and 68: patterns differ across markets, red
Page 69 and 70: case of a flood, its effects could
Page 71 and 72: 3.2 Hypothesis Testing The level of
Page 73 and 74: Table 3.2: Description of Data Used
Page 75 and 76: Coefficient of Variation= Where;
Page 77 and 78: Where; P t - the observed tomato pr
Page 79 and 80: A look at price variability in each
Page 81 and 82: For further comparison of the mean
Page 83 and 84: Figure 3.2: Comparison of the Ratio
Page 85 and 86: Figure 3.4: Comparison of Condition
Page 87 and 88: thereby making the farmers more con
Page 89 and 90: d. The absence of cold chain system
Page 91 and 92: depend on local suppliers for their
Page 93 and 94:
The provision of market information
Page 95 and 96:
upon arrival in the market. Lower q
Page 97 and 98:
- Assets used in tomato production,
Page 99 and 100:
Tomato price data used for analysis
Page 101 and 102:
4.4 The Monte Carlo Model The Basel
Page 103 and 104:
CF Fixed conversion factor of 37.
Page 105 and 106:
- Seedling costs - Seed costs - Fie
Page 107 and 108:
differences were due to differences
Page 109 and 110:
Table 4.2: Farmer Characteristics B
Page 111 and 112:
Group 1 Table 4.4: Basic Informatio
Page 113 and 114:
farmers can in practice suffer a to
Page 115 and 116:
4.5.2 Simulation Results for the Di
Page 117 and 118:
Scenario 1: Increased Sales Frequen
Page 119 and 120:
knowledge of what their yields and
Page 121 and 122:
Table 4.12: The Effect of Supply Ch
Page 123 and 124:
Table 4.13: Production of Low and H
Page 125 and 126:
quality; when supplies are high in
Page 127 and 128:
etter farmers would attempt to have
Page 129 and 130:
CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION This study was
Page 131 and 132:
top twelve tomato supply areas acco
Page 133 and 134:
Freshpikt and Rivonia are the main
Page 135 and 136:
on prediction errors from a price p
Page 137 and 138:
absence of a cold chain system, the
Page 139 and 140:
price variability, the expectation
Page 141 and 142:
In the scenario analysis of increas
Page 143 and 144:
price variability affects the diffe
Page 145 and 146:
facilitate the provision of low cos
Page 147 and 148:
APPENDICES 135
Page 149 and 150:
i. What type of farmers do they pre
Page 151 and 152:
Taipei, Taiwan Table A2.3. Model Su
Page 153 and 154:
Colombo, Sri Lanka A2.7. Model Summ
Page 155 and 156:
APPENDIX 3. Graphs of Price Predict
Page 157 and 158:
Figure A3.3. Price Prediction Resid
Page 159 and 160:
Figure A3.5. Price Prediction Resid
Page 161 and 162:
9. Name of Main Respondent (if diff
Page 163 and 164:
SECTION 3 - HARVEST AND SALES OF CR
Page 165 and 166:
SECTION 4 - PLANTING AND HARVEST PA
Page 167 and 168:
155 _______________ _______________
Page 169 and 170:
5.2 Planted Seedlings Phase Field #
Page 171 and 172:
PHASE 2 - FIELD PREPARATION 5.5 Enu
Page 173 and 174:
5.7 Irrigation prior to transplanti
Page 175 and 176:
4=Spraying 5=Weeding 6=Placement of
Page 177 and 178:
Field # Please list all the types o
Page 179 and 180:
that you used in your tomato produc
Page 181 and 182:
Trailer Van/light truck Borehole Bo
Page 183 and 184:
Field # Time from 1 st harvest Phas
Page 185 and 186:
Second Field Field # Time from 1 st
Page 187 and 188:
Field # Time from 1 st harvest Phas
Page 189 and 190:
Second field: 8.0 Harvesting and Ma
Page 191 and 192:
APPENDIX 5. Distribution of Sampled
Page 193 and 194:
Figure A6.2. Distributions for Cost
Page 195 and 196:
Figure A6.4. Distributions for Cost
Page 197 and 198:
APPENDIX 7. Histograms of Farmer Pr
Page 199 and 200:
Figure A7.3. Baseline Scenario: His
Page 201 and 202:
Figure A7.5. Increased Sales Freque
Page 203 and 204:
Figure A7.7. Increased Sales Freque
Page 205 and 206:
Figure A7.9. Supply Chain Improveme
Page 207 and 208:
Figure A7.11. Supply Chain Improvem
Page 209 and 210:
Figure A7.13. Scenario on Quality o
Page 211 and 212:
Figure A7.15. Scenario on Quality o
Page 213 and 214:
Figure A7.17. Scenario on Low Quali
Page 215 and 216:
Figure A7.19. Scenario on Low Quali
Page 217 and 218:
BIBLIOGRAPHY 205
Page 219:
Stevens, C. and J. Kennan (1999). W
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