Schriftenreihe .;technologiekompetenz Verkehr in

A3-PROJECTS
A3 | A3 – Austrian Advanced Automotive Technology | A3 – 4 th Call (2006)
ALTANKRA
Scenarios for economic feasibility of alternative propulsion systems and fuels in private transport until 2050
This study investigates if and under which
conditions alternative propulsion systems and
fuels will become economically relevant for
private transport in Austria.
Vehicle stock (Mio.)
6
5
4
3
2
To alleviate the problems currently associated with the increase in energy demand for
private motorised transport (rising consumption of fossil-based energy sources, and
the associated increase in greenhouse gas emissions), further research and practical
implementation projects are being pursued worldwide looking at alternative propulsion
systems – hybrid drives, drives using natural gas or biogas, fuel cell vehicles, and
electric drives – and new alternative energy carriers – bioethanol, biogas, biodiesel,
hydrogen from renewable energy sources, synthetic fuels, electricity.
The core objective of this project is to analyse whether, under which boundary
conditions, to what extent and at what point in time the aforementioned alternative
propulsion systems and fuels can be of economic relevance in Austria. To achieve this
objective, the impact of the following key parameters is being investigated in four
scenarios:
> Possible trends in the energy price level (low-price and high-price scenario)
> Increases in technical efficiency and cost reductions for specific technologies;
> Changes in policy framework conditions (taxes, subsidies, etc.).
The major conclusions of this analysis are:
In a „business as usual” (BaU) scenario with fuel prices for
conventional fuels increasing only moderately, overall vehicle
Project management:
numbers increase continuously and the major effect is a strong
Vienna University of Technology – Institute of „hybridisation” of vehicles (figure 1). In a scenario with high oil
Electric Plant and Energy Management
prices and targeted introduction of „green” policies, overall
Project partner:
vehicle numbers stagnate or even decrease slightly, and electric
AVL List GmbH, Joanneum Research
as well as hydrogen-powered cars gain significant market shares
Forschungsgesellschaft mbH
from around as early as 2030 (figure 2). However, a major
characteristic of all the scenarios investigated is that the
diversity of propulsion systems and fuels used increases
significantly.
1 1
0
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
FC
Diesel-Hybrid
Diesel -Motor
E-car
Otto-Hybrid
Otto-Motor
H2-ICE-Hybrid
H2-ICE
Natural Gas -Hybrid
Natural Gas-Motor
FC
Diesel-Hybrid
Diesel -Motor
E-car
Otto-Hybrid
Otto-Motor
H2-ICE-Hybrid
H2-ICE
Natural Gas-Hybrid
Natural Gas-Motor
Figure 1: Figure 2:
BaU scenario with modestly rising energy prices Scenario with clearly rising energy prices and ambitious policy
measures
48 Austrian Technological Expertise in Transport
Vehicle stock (Mio.)
6
5
4
3
2