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Antibiotic prophylaxis in surgery. (SIGN Guideline No 104)

Antibiotic prophylaxis in surgery. (SIGN Guideline No 104)

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Annex 6<br />

Calculat<strong>in</strong>g the cost effectiveness of antibiotic <strong>prophylaxis</strong><br />

Three concepts are used <strong>in</strong> calculat<strong>in</strong>g the cost effectiveness of us<strong>in</strong>g antibiotic <strong>prophylaxis</strong>:<br />

odds ratio (or)<br />

The oR for a particular procedure is the number of wound <strong>in</strong>fections occurr<strong>in</strong>g follow<strong>in</strong>g<br />

<strong>prophylaxis</strong> divided by the number of wound <strong>in</strong>fections occurr<strong>in</strong>g without <strong>prophylaxis</strong>. An<br />

odds ratio of 1 <strong>in</strong>dicates no effect from <strong>prophylaxis</strong>.<br />

expected basel<strong>in</strong>e risk<br />

This is the number of wound <strong>in</strong>fections occurr<strong>in</strong>g with<strong>in</strong> the hospital for a particular<br />

surgical procedure each year, divided by the total number of times the surgical procedure<br />

is performed <strong>in</strong> the year. The expected basel<strong>in</strong>e risk multiplied by 100 is the percentage<br />

risk of wound <strong>in</strong>fection for that procedure.<br />

numbers needed to treat (nnt)<br />

The NNT is the number of patients who must be given antibiotic <strong>prophylaxis</strong> <strong>in</strong> order to<br />

prevent one wound <strong>in</strong>fection.<br />

The method of calculat<strong>in</strong>g NNT from expected basel<strong>in</strong>e risk and odds ratio is given <strong>in</strong> Cook<br />

and Sackett: 193<br />

1-[expected basel<strong>in</strong>e risk x (1-odds ratio)]<br />

NNT=<br />

1-(expected basel<strong>in</strong>e risk) x expected basel<strong>in</strong>e risk x (1-odds ratio)<br />

The relationship between the basel<strong>in</strong>e risk of wound <strong>in</strong>fection and NNT is not a straight l<strong>in</strong>e.<br />

The NNT falls steeply as the risk of wound <strong>in</strong>fection <strong>in</strong>creases. The figure below shows the<br />

numbers of patients needed to be treated with antibiotic <strong>prophylaxis</strong> to prevent one wound<br />

<strong>in</strong>fection <strong>in</strong> caesarean section <strong>surgery</strong> based on the results of a meta-analysis of randomised<br />

controlled cl<strong>in</strong>ical trials. 113, 218 The odds ratio of wound <strong>in</strong>fection with <strong>prophylaxis</strong> is 0.35.<br />

NNT to prevent one wound <strong>in</strong>fection<br />

70<br />

60<br />

50<br />

40<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

0<br />

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%<br />

Risk of wound <strong>in</strong>fection<br />

Annexes<br />

63

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