megatrends

Megatrends
Interview: Yves van der Straaten, OICA
According to data published by OICA (the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers),
global vehicle production - from passenger cars to heavy trucks and buses - grew by 3.1% in 2011,
reaching an all-time record of almost 80 million units. Full yeardata for 2012 was not available at the
time of writing, but as the US market recovers, and the European market declines, the BRICS nations
continue to outperform their individual regions. At the same time, Asia and parts of Africa show strong
potential, and OEMs and suppliers are beginning to make long-term strategic moves out of Europe to
focus their operations on these growth markets.
Megatrends spoke to Yves van der Straaten, OICA’s Secretary General and Technical Director, about
how he sees the global automotive industry developing in 2013 and beyond
Ruth Dawson
Automotive industry sales and production
are moving very clearly away from
Europe, and into emerging markets. Is this
because Europe as a market is declining
or because of growth in other markets -
and why do you think this is happening?
That trend has been ongoing for a couple of
years, and has accelerated over the last ten
years. Right now we are in the middle of a
huge crisis in Europe, but even if Europe was
a growth market, the growth is often
extremely limited, while the emerging
markets are new markets. And if you simply
look at the number of cars per 1,000
Q1 2013
inhabitants, in Europe we are at 500 or more.
In countries like Asia, excluding Japan and
Korea, they are well below100. We are
looking at figures like 30, 40, 50 vehicles per
1,000 inhabitants, so of course the growth
potential is largely in these countries and not
any more in Europe or the US, although the
US in 2012 did pretty well.
In terms of production moving to these
emerging markets, you produce where you
sell, and since the sales are moving there, so
too is the production. It avoids the
burdensome and expensive logistics of
producing in Europe and shipping to China, for
example. There is also the issue of labour and
material costs etc., which, in Western Europe,
are far more expensive than in these emerging
markets. If we had to use European prices in
China plus transport, logistics costs, etc., it
would simply not be feasible.
OICA data published in 2012 showed
Asia as the source of 40.6 million
vehicles, up from 16.5 million units 20
years ago. How do you see Asia
continuing to evolve?
Take China, for example: in 2012, we saw the
growth curve in that major market slowing
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