megatrends

Megatrends
Outlook 2013: the Obama
administration, Congress,
and the auto industry
Ian C. Graig, Global Policy Group
President Barack Obama, having won reelection
in November, took the oath of office
for his second four-year term on 20 January.
For the next two years he will work with a
Congress that was changed only slightly by
the presidential elections: the Democrats
retained and slightly expanded their Senate
majority, while the Republican Party retained
a slightly smaller majority in the House of
Representatives. The political outlook for
2013 thus far remains uncertain, with fears
that the gridlock which gripped Washington
in 2011 and 2012 could continue.
So what is this new year in Washington likely
to bring for the automotive industry? First,
the industry will be dealing with a host of
new policy makers - not an unusual situation
at the start of a president’s second term.
Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood,
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
Administrator Lisa Jackson, and Secretary of
Energy Steven Chu have already said that
they are leaving. There have also been
changes at lower levels of the EPA and other
agencies, which, although unlikely to alter the
fundamental direction of Obama
administration policies, will change the policy
makers with whom the industry interacts.
However, President Obama’s re-election, and
the somewhat surprising expansion of the
Democrats’ Senate majority, ensures that
there will be no fundamental changes in many
of the policies that most directly affect the
automotive industry. For example, the
administration will now continue to
implement the country’s first-ever rules
regulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
from the largest new or modified stationary
sources and from mobile sources, including
cars and trucks - issued during Obama’s first
term. If control of both houses of Congress
and/or the White House had been handed to
the Republicans, such regulations could have
been slowed or even rolled back.
(Political) climate change
Looking ahead, the surprising prominence
that the President gave to climate change in
his second inaugural address is likely to
foreshadow additional efforts to reduce
carbon emissions - particularly since polls
show that record temperatures in the US last
year have revived public concern about global
warming. This does not mean that Obama will
resuscitate proposals for a national cap-andtrade
system, however. Such proposals, which
stalled during his first term, still have little
support in Congress.
The political outlook for
2013 thus far remains
uncertain, with fears that the
gridlock which gripped
Washington in 2011 and 2012
could continue
Nevertheless, it does mean that the Obama
administration can be expected to continue
using its existing authority under the Clean
Air Act to expand its efforts to regulate
57 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | www.automotiveworld.com Q1 2013