megatrends

Megatrends
safety technology in light vehicles. Support is
‘qualified’ because although the roll-out of
technology can be accelerated by legal
enforcement, market forces are generally
believed to be more powerful and faster-acting
than the slow pace of change brought about
by regulation.
The European Commission has produced
rules requiring the fitment of AEB and lane
departure warning (LDW) systems in trucks
and buses over 3.5t from Q4 2013, with 100%
fitment by the end of 2015. So what are the
chances of legislation requiring AEB in light
vehicles?
Michiel van Ratingen, Secretary General of
Euro NCAP, explains why trucks were selected
for AEB regulation first:“The cost benefit for
these types of vehicles is much better, much
more positive.The systems are, of course, as
expensive for trucks as they are for passenger
cars, but trucks are generally much more
expensive, so the cost added to these vehicles
is relatively small while the benefits are huge.
That cost benefit is different for trucks and
makes sense. It's much more worthwhile
promoting implementation through regulation
than it is for passenger cars.”
Whilst van Ratingen sees the benefits of
mandating the technology in trucks, he says,
“I don't think, really, that we need regulation
for AEB in cars at this stage because we have
Euro NCAP really pushing fitment.” Referring
to the UK ABI’s decision to incentivise AEB,
he says,“this is a good example of the
insurance industry taking the first step”. Euro
NCAP’s inclusion of AEB in its testing in
2014 will “basically drive it home”. Moreover,
“the big disadvantage of going to a
mandatory process is that it has to work for
all types of vehicles, all models, and so the
requirements would get watered down so
much that the end benefit would be lost. I
believe much more in the model of taking
best practice, making fitment standard and
driving it through commercial and then
customer demand, to make sure that there is
a competitive market there. Make it standard,
and make people want to buy it.”
Anders Eugensson, Director of Government
Affairs at Volvo Car Corporation, is adamant
that market forces, not legislation, should lead
the way.“I think you can never use regulations
to push technology. Just look at ESC: it's taken
ten years to make it mandatory.There's no
way you can have AEB mandated and pushed
forward. If you start working on the regulation
now, the best experts will look at what is
possible now with technology, come up with a
proposal, and send it to Brussels.They take
two years to discuss it. Meanwhile,
development of the technology continues. It
can take four years for regulators to decide
on a mandate, and then they have to give
about four or five years' lead time before
implementing it. It could take up to ten years.
During that time, technology has advanced.
And you face a risk of locking into today’s
technology instead of having consumers push
for it constantly and having a Euro NCAP
rating.And also, that mandate may stay in place
for another ten years, so you basically lock
yourself into 20 years of knowledge and
development instead of having this constantly
pushed. Mandates are for the past.”
Lesley Upham is Commercial Director at
Thatcham Research, and also sits on the board
of Euro NCAP as chair of the communications
group.“I think it's all about the consumer
demanding and expecting technology to be in
a vehicle,” she says.“And we have to also think
about fleet and professional drivers, who are
going to be out in those cars doing 60-90,000
miles a year.They also need to be put in the
safest vehicles. Furthermore, not everyone can
drive around in new cars, but everybody has
the right to safety and I think we need
consumers to say they expect this.”
39 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | www.automotiveworld.com Q1 2013
Cost
As ever, cost lies at the heart of any such
decision.“It has to make sense economically,”
says van Ratingen.“The cost benefit is very
important, so that means the technical
requirements will be lower for cars that are
cheaper. I think that's the wrong way of
approaching technology like this. It works very
well with some basic crash performance but it
doesn't work very well with this type of high
end technology that develops very fast - every
generation is smarter than the previous one.
Let's use the market, not regulation, as a
mechanism to increase demand, to pick the
best systems and to drive those into the
market.That is my opinion.”
As safety requirements become more
stringent, the level of technology increases,
adding cost to the vehicle. Either the OEM has
to absorb the cost, or it has to pass the cost
on to the consumer. But at the same time, the
bit-price of that technology is reducing all the
time, and software developments mean that
hardware can be used for multiple tasks and
functions.
At Volvo, says Eugensson,“we decided to fit
AEB as standard. Now we're getting the high
“
I don't think, really,
that we need
regulation for AEB in
cars at this stage
because we have Euro
NCAP really pushing
fitment
”
- Michiel van Ratingen, Secretary
General, Euro NCAP