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Megatrends Truck Transportation 2030: impacting the commercial vehicle industry Changes in the global transportation industry, such as new logistics business models, will have a major influence on the truck market over the coming 20 years. The industry will have to adapt to new patterns of behaviour, global economic megatrends and new mobility concepts, all of which will place new requirements on truck OEMs and their products. At the same time, challenges within the truck industry such as increasing competition will force OEMs to adjust their business models Norbert Dressler & Sebastian Gundermann, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Truck Transportation 2030, a new study by Roland Berger, sheds light on crucial developments in the truck transportation industry. It presents the results of the consultancy’s discussions about the long-term impact of these developments on industry players with key decision-makers at international logistics providers, commercial vehicle manufacturers, suppliers and other relevant organisations. Future opportunities and challenges Based on our analysis, we have identified six key megatrends. Megatrend 1: demographic change and urbanisation The world's population is growing rapidly - especially in developing countries, where 85% of the world's 8.3 billion people will be living by 2030. Over half of the global population will live in cities, driving urban sprawl and increasing the number of megacities. These developments will lead to seismic changes in the truck industry through to 2030. Transportation flows will increase in line with population growth, so developing countries will both offer the greatest market potential and dictate new requirements. Substantial demand for specialised vehicles, combined train/bus/truck transportation concepts and possibly even completely new vehicle Most inff luential megatrrends through Demogrr aphic change and 1 ur ba niza at i on 2 3 4 5 6 Highly eefficient, emission-free and silent trucks Total fleeet transparency Tolls and regulations Accidennt-free transportation I nc r ea si ng compet i t i on Important tr rend Very important trennd Source: Intervie w ws; Roland Berger 33% 49% 822% categories will develop to bridge the growing distances between urban logistics hubs and city centres. Megatrend 2: highly efficient, emissionfree and silent trucks A combination of increasing green legislation, rising energy prices and growing environmental awareness among customers makes fuel efficiency more relevant than ever. Emission reduction targets are expected for most major truck markets by 2020. This will 22030 [% ] QUOTES "I In term ms of uurb banizatiion, you can defiiniitely see the need fo or more sp ec ia a liz ze d ve hicl es es, so i int n t ha t rre rre es pe pect ct, i t t'ss im mport t an t t" " TTooll lls an d reegg ulati ltion aree moree of f a bi big t ttr re endi d inn EEuro opean countr ri ies it is defiinitely a key tre end" Asian manufa actureerrs s are e gro owin ng, but it willl l t takk e a whil hil l le b bbe ffo oree t thhey re eachh t thhe l level l of f EEuro opean mark kke t ts" " necessitate alternative vehicle concepts (hybrid or fully electric vehicles) as well as significant gains in fossil fuel efficiency. The development trajectory of electric and hybrid trucks will be boosted by the fact that their engines are exceptionally efficient in urban stop-and-go traffic. They also meet inner-city zero-emission requirements, which will probably be commonplace by 2030. However, with no positive business case in sight, electrification will for the time being mainly be driven by political rather than economic factors. 47 Automotive World Megatrends magazine | www.automotiveworld.com Q1 2013 37% 37% 44% 56% 53% 28% 65% 23% 67% 28% 49% 19% 68% 90% 84 4% " Greeen policcies are e often used as part t of the mark keti ing str raategies of f big companies" " That's abso l utely crii ti ical" " That's what [ [o our company] has been bu uil ltt on. Inform m, tra ack and tra ace: in nfo ormm matii on is s just as im mport taan n t as th he prooduct its selff " "A " Accident-frre eee tr raansport tation is defiiniitely an import tant tr re end in the Euro opeean mark ket, , and willll also inncreease in the fuuturee"
Megatrend 3: total fleet transparency Another important requirement will be full transparency along the entire value chain for fleet operators. The key to achieving such transparency is to integrate the various technological aspects of the system into endto-end solutions. This would enable real-time monitoring, which increases flexibility and minimises idle time, thereby cutting logistics costs. Integrated logistics systems (including vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure communication) are estimated to save corporate fleets at least 10% on fuel consumption. This integration will drive forward the trend toward increased transparency and overall up-time. In addition, the ’captive’ telematics services that OEMs provide today will gradually give way to opensource systems (e.g. cross-brand). OEMs will have to support the hardware, but suppliers will deliver both the hardware and platformindependent software solutions. Most vehicles are expected to be equipped with the necessary support systems by 2025. Megatrend 4: tolls and regulation As traffic volumes increase and emissions standards become stricter, tolls - currently the standard regulatory mechanism in Triad markets - are likely to spread to developing countries, too. Tolls and regulatory fees are expected to increase from around 10% of total transportation costs today to an average of 15-25% by 2030. Fleet operators, for whom total cost of ownership is a major concern, are likely to pass these additional costs to OEMs. Accordingly, OEMs must try to find ways of cutting overall fleet operating costs. Megatrend 5: accident-free transportation After being somewhat overshadowed by environmental concerns for a time, safety issues are once again coming to the fore. Stricter safety legislation is in the pipeline in several regions. Yet despite improvements, numerous active and passive safety features that are already widespread in passenger vehicles have yet to be implemented in trucks. Future developments will include using advanced materials, developing assistance and safety systems, and integrating all the available technologies in future truck generations. Within the EU, advanced safety features will mostly be in place by 2015. These features will also grow in importance in emerging markets. Megatrend 6: increasing competition The global truck market is expected to grow by Q1 2013 around 4% a year through to 2020, while competition will be fiercer than ever. The demand side will likely be dominated by a few extremely large ’mega-logistics providers’, putting pressure on OEMs' margins. On the supply side, with quality and technical standards finally converging across global markets, players in emerging markets might even target the lower ends of the Triad markets (Europe, Japan and North America), in addition to adjacent regions such as Russia. Investment by Asian OEMs into Western players will also be an option. OEM/supplier alliances will increasingly develop as a means to fight tougher competition, share the burden of investment and counteract stagnation in Triad markets. Six consequences for truck and trailer manufacturers These megatrends will have a major impact on truck manufacturers and their suppliers. We have identified six main consequences for these players. Truck OEMs must align their product offerings with the new transportation requirements caused by demographic development and urbanisation. As infrastructure changes, medium-duty trucks will become less important and light- and heavy-duty trucks will come to the fore. The emergence of ’megatrucks’ as a solution for heavy long-haul traffic will depend on political decisions. Customer structures are also subject to change. A few large customers are expected to grow in importance, putting pressure on OEMs' margins. To remain competitive, manufacturers will be forced to act as business solution providers, increasing their vertical integration to include comprehensive service offerings and innovative mobility solutions (new business areas to be verified). This will naturally also have an impact on suppliers, who will have to think carefully about their position in the future value chain. Source: MAN (Concept S) Separation of longhaul and city traffic 1 Change of business model for truck OEMs Integration of tractor and trailer reduced air resistance and lightweight concept 2 3 Integrated truck and trailer concepts must complement the development of lightweight Megatrends and aerodynamic solutions, taking efficiency to a new level. Partnerships between OEMs and trailer manufacturers could be one option. However, height and length restrictions remain hurdles for innovative truck concepts. Truck OEMs must develop region-specific alternative powertrain solutions so that long-haul traffic and city traffic becomes more efficient. Suppliers have a vital part to play in facilitating technological change: The assistance they provide in developing key technologies will give them an invaluable USP. Global, flexible concepts can help companies meet the demands of specific markets. Besides global premium platforms, budget and low cost platforms are required. OEMs will build both low-cost and budget vehicles on respective platforms. Increasing competition and cost pressure will promote adjusted platform concepts - thus off-road and budget trucks could use the same robust platform. OEMs need to build new partnerships or improve existing ones, especially in emerging countries. These partnerships will enable them to address local market requirements, leverage low production costs and share R&D investments. Suppliers must follow the OEMs' lead in terms of development direction and geographical footprint. Driving the change Fully electric and hybrid vehicles 4 Global, flexible concepts and specialization Driving innovation and developing new business models, while fending off increasing competition and ensuring compliance may appear a daunting task. Yet each of these harbours attractive opportunities for companies that act swiftly and resolutely. Now is the time to act - to drive the change, rather than be driven by it. Norbert Dressler is Partner, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, Stuttgart Sebastian Gundermann is Principal, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, Munich Automotive World Megatrends magazine | www.automotiveworld.com 5 Cooperations and mergers 6 48
Page 1 and 2: megatrends Q1 2013 M A G A Z I N E
Page 3 and 4: Contents Q1 2013 megatrends Q1 2013
Page 5 and 6: More Safety, Less Costs. Voith Reta
Page 7 and 8: Those concepts are something that w
Page 9 and 10: For him, Bright Science means new w
Page 11 and 12: have demonstrated a 10.5% of fuel r
Page 13 and 14: three, increasing the plant’s cap
Page 16 and 17: Megatrends Picture a world in which
Page 18 and 19: automotive industry news analysis,
Page 20 and 21: Megatrends work we do with Shell in
Page 22 and 23: • Global Presence, Local Expertis
Page 24 and 25: Megatrends down. In the past we had
Page 27 and 28: P3 enables our clients to succeed i
Page 29 and 30: Wireless charging has long been the
Page 31 and 32: Q1 2013 The Halo effect Seeing the
Page 33 and 34: Engine - Multifunction Valve block
Page 35 and 36: Power cut: EV makers focus on post-
Page 37 and 38: with safety testing. At Thatcham we
Page 39 and 40: Autonomous emergency braking (AEB)
Page 41 and 42: volumes, the cost is going down, an
Page 43 and 44: CARS ARE PART OF OUR WAY OF LIFE. A
Page 45 and 46: What do you think have been the maj
Page 50 and 51: Megatrend 3: total fleet transparen
Page 52 and 53: Megatrends The US is becoming suffi
Page 54 and 55: © 2013 EYGM Limited. All Rights Re
Page 56: Megatrends plans to open up their A
Page 59 and 60: GHG emissions - something that does
Page 61 and 62: Bsquare Connected Automotive IVI So
Page 63: As vehicles age, the heat affected
Page 66 and 67: Industry viewpoint OEMs and dealers
Page 68 and 69: How do I control my fuel usage & co

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