megatrends

ability - or otherwise - of the industry to supply
gallon jugs of an inert liquid to truckstop shelves.
Piping natural gas to those same truckstops
would seem like a rather more involved
undertaking, but it is clearly one that has to be
addressed before any form of wider spread
adoption can even begin to be considered. Does
this make natural gas a simple energy play in this
context? At one level, yes, but infrastructure
issues are not the only restraint here.
Limited choice in NG engine offerings…
Diesel is currently the dominant fuel in the HD
segment, and there are plenty of diesel engines
from which to choose. Natural gas does not
suffer from the same plentitude, with only two
engine choices on offer. Both produced by the
Cummins Westport JV, the ISL G is an 8.9-litre
250-320 bhp offering that falls short of the
requirements of mainstream Class 8 trucks,
while the HD15 15-litre unit, which outputs
400-550 bhp, is realistically the only choice
available to HD operators requiring a like-forlike
natural gas alternative.
This lack of choice appears to act as a restraint
in two ways. On the one hand, what amounts to
a single engine choice may serve to delegitimise
natural gas as a genuine alternative to diesel in
the mindset of the mainstream North American
trucking industry. And perhaps in part because
of the scarcity value, the on-cost of specifying a
natural gas unit is significant: the incremental
cost generally cited ranges between US$45,000
- US$100,000 over a comparable dieselpowered
truck. This additional expense lies in
Q1 2013
the engine (30%) and the gas tanks (70%), and is
clearly noteworthy. So too are the costs
inherent in retrofitting service bays for natural
gas trucks, at US$200,000 - US$300,000. In
summation, opting for natural gas requires
considerable upfront investment.
…but this may be about to change
A key catalyst to development here looks to be
the launch later this year of the Cummins
Westport ISX 12 G 12-litre unit. While this is
being slow-marched to market, it will be
followed in 2014 by Volvo’s dual fuel 13-litre
unit, and in 2015 by Cummins’ own gaspowered
15-litre unit. It seems reasonable to
assume that a broader engine choice will serve
to address both the legitimacy argument and
possibly reduce the initial cost implications too.
If the natural gas product range increases, then it
seems reasonable to assume that so too will the
willingness on the part of the suppliers to grow
infrastructure. If these two key restraints are
removed, then the third, less obvious but equally
important barrier to adoption should also be
mitigated, and a larger adoption rate should
allow some semblance of residual value
discussion to take place.
Will North America welcome NG?
Natural gas exists in a strange place at present.
There is an abundance of supply, and the
technology exists to harness it. And while some
fleets have pointed to improved fuel efficiency
at EPA 10 as narrowing the reckoning
BTIC Westport cryogenic liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage tanks with integrated LNG pumps
Megatrends
somewhat, a more cost effective fuel type is
never going to be dismissed out of hand.
There is much more to debate here: the
argument that sets CNG against LNG is one
that is still in its infancy, while at a broader level
the sustainability of the North American gas
supply remains in question. Clearly, if the
differential between diesel and natural gas
narrows significantly, then this too will skew any
future reckonings.
That said, and with a number of other caveats,
it is hard to believe that the North American
trucking segment should not constitute a
significant end market for natural gas in the
coming years. The barriers to adoption are
clear, but are far from insurmountable, while
the benefits are both demonstrable and
quantifiable.
OEMs have a clear and vested interest in
retaining diesel as the fuel of choice at a global
level. A focused effort upon natural gas for
North America alone is unlikely to be welcomed
by equipment suppliers which increasingly prefer
to view the world as a common market.
Europe prepares to deploy its NG infrastructure
However, at the end of January, the European
Commission published the Clean Power for
Transport package, which includes a proposal
for a Directive on the deployment of an
alternative fuels infrastructure, aimed at
developing harmonised standards and setting
clear targets for the rollout of consolidated
alternative fuels, among which CNG and LNG
play an important role. The paper demands a
maximum 150km distance between CNG and
400km between LNG fuelling stations at a
national level Europe-wide by 2020.
If we add this European initiative to the situation
in North America, then the obvious conclusion
is one that sees the likely marketplace for natural
gas growing significantly in two major global
truck markets. At this point, globalised
equipment suppliers would seem to have little
choice but to fall into line.
Is natural gas going to have an impact on the
North American trucking industry? Without a
doubt, but it is an impact that will take some
time to arrive. Perhaps the hardest task at
present is not one of selling the logic, but of
managing the expectations. Transport is,
ultimately, a highly conservative, change-averse
industry. But changes do happen: natural gas will
play a significant role in the years to come. How
significant remains to be seen.
Oliver Dixon is Editor, World Truck Analysis
Automotive World Megatrends magazine | www.automotiveworld.com
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