Long-term Forecast of Medicaid Enrollment Spending in Alaska:

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Enrollment after 2019, the growth rate for children drops below that of the adults. Over the last five years, the growth rate for children becomes negative. Table 1: Elderly enrollment is projected to grow faster than other age groups MEDICAID ENROLLMENT BY AGE GROUP FOR SELECTED YEARS, 2009-2029 Age Group 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 Average Annual Change Children (0-19) 84,512 90,440 94,552 95,408 94,233 0.6% Working Age Adults (20-64) 36,114 38,782 40,183 41,329 42,569 0.8% Elderly (65+) 8,270 11,054 14,766 18,860 22,336 5.1% Source: Medicaid Budget Group, MESA Model. Figure 4: Enrollment increases are projected to be modest ENROLLMENT BY AGE GROUP Medicaid Enrollees 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Source: Medicaid Budget Group, MESA Model Actual Projected Children Working Age Elderly The demographic characteristics of Medicaid enrollees have changed and will continue to do so in the future. The share of children as a percent of all participants enrolled in Medicaid increased in the late 1990s and continued to increase in the beginning of this decade until 2004, when they accounted for 67 percent of enrollees. This coincided with the introduction of Denali KidCare, which expanded Medicaid to more pregnant women and individuals. From 2004 to 2007, the household income eligibility requirements for Denali KidCare were locked into place instead of being adjusted for inflation, so some individuals fell off the rolls. The proportion of enrollees who are children has since dropped to 66 percent. With a 0.6 percent annual growth rate from 2009 to 2029, children’s Long Term Forecast of Medicaid Enrollment and Spending in Alaska: 2009‐2029 9
Enrollment share of enrollment will continue to fall; by 2029, enrollment is projected to include 94,200 children, accounting for 59 percent of enrollment. The proportion of Medicaid enrollees who are working-age adults decreased from 35 percent of enrollment in 1997 to 27 percent of enrollment in 2002. Enrollment of working-age adults is projected to grow over the forecast period at 0.8 percent per year. The share of working-aged adults is projected to remain steady throughout the forecast period, at 27 percent, resulting in an increase from 36,000 adults enrolled in 2009 to 42,600 in 2029. Figure 5: Percentage of enrollees who are elderly will increase in the future SHARE OF TOTAL ENROLLEES BY AGE GROUP Share of total enrollees 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Actual Source: Medicaid Budget Group, MESA Model Projected 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 Children Working Age Elderly With more people in the Baby Boom Generation approaching retirement age, the elderly will account for a larger share of Medicaid enrollees over the forecast period, increasing from 6 percent of enrollment to 14 percent in 2029. Enrollment of elderly is expected to grow at an annual rate of 5.1 percent over the 20 year period, from 8,300 in 2009 to 22,300 in 2029. The gender balance is projected to remain stable throughout the forecast period, with 55 percent female enrollees and 45 percent male enrollees. The racial makeup of enrollees is projected to remain at 66 percent non-Native and 34 percent Native. The enrollment for each of these groups is projected to grow at 1.1 percent annually. The forecast projects an increase in enrollment levels for each eligibility group, with the largest growth in eligibility groups that have a larger share of the elderly. These groups include Long Term Care Non-Cash and SSI/APA/LTC Long Term Forecast of Medicaid Enrollment and Spending in Alaska: 2009‐2029 10
Page 1: Long-term Forecast of Medicaid Enro
Page 4 and 5: TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1: Total Me
Page 6 and 7: Executive Summary Executive Summary
Page 8 and 9: Introduction Introduction This repo
Page 10 and 11: Summary of Methodology Since the fe
Page 12 and 13: Alaska Medicaid Forecast: 2009‐20
Page 16 and 17: Enrollment Cash, which are projecte
Page 18 and 19: Total Medicaid Claims Spending $1.1
Page 20 and 21: Total Medicaid Claims Spending Figu
Page 22 and 23: Total Medicaid Claims Spending Figu
Page 24 and 25: State Claims Spending Alaska benefi
Page 26 and 27: Summary in later years 10. The spec
Page 28 and 29: Appendix B: Medicaid Service Catego
Page 30 and 31: Appendix C Table 8: Forecast of Enr
Page 32 and 33: Table 11: Forecast of Utilization b
Page 34 and 35: Table 13: Forecast of Nominal Spend
Page 36 and 37: Appendix C Table 15: Forecast of Re
Page 38: Long-term Forecast of Medicaid Enro

Long-term Forecast of Medicaid Enrollment Spending in Alaska:

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