Long-term Forecast of Medicaid Enrollment Spending in Alaska:

Total Medicaid Claims Spending
$1.1 billion in 2009 to $3.4 billion in 2029, for an annual growth rate of 5.8
percent.
Figure 8: Each elderly enrollee costs about four times as much as a child
AVERAGE TOTAL CLAIMS SPENDING PER ENROLLEE
Total spending per enrollee
$50,000
$45,000
$40,000
$35,000
$30,000
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
Source: Medicaid Budget Group: MESA Model
The higher costs of caring for the elderly will increase the total share of spending
on elderly care. As a result, each of the three age groups will account for about
one-third of Medicaid spending, despite the fact that the elderly are projected to
account for only 14 percent of total enrollment in 2029.
Figure 9: Total spending in 2029 will be almost four times the 2009 value
TOTAL SPENDING BY SERVICE GROUP
Millions
$4,000
Actual Projected
$3,500
Total spending
$3,000
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
Source: Medicaid Budget Group: MESA Model
2009 2014 2019 2024 2029
Children Working Age Elderly
Primary Care Long-term Care Behavioral Health
Long Term Forecast of Medicaid Enrollment and Spending in Alaska: 2009‐2029
13