Long-term Forecast of Medicaid Enrollment Spending in Alaska:

TABLE OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Total Medicaid spending in 2029 will reach $3.6 billion 1
Figure 2: Alaska’s total spending growth is projected to be lower than the national average 4
Figure 3: Enrollment growth slows down over time. The elderly remain the fastest‐growing group 8
Figure 4: Enrollment increases are projected to be modest 9
Figure 5: Percentage of enrollees who are elderly will increase in the future 10
Figure 6: Growth in total spending will slow down with time 12
Figure 7: By 2029, claims spending for each age group will converge 12
Figure 8: Each elderly enrollee costs about four times as much as a child 13
Figure 9: Total spending in 2029 will be almost four times the 2009 value 13
Figure 10: Growth in total spending has slowed dramatically in recent years 14
Figure 11: Spending on Long‐term Care services will increase as a share of total spending 15
Figure 12: Home and Community Based Waivers and Personal Care are the fastest growing service
categories 16
Figure 13: Inflation accounts for the largest part of increased claims spending 17
Figure 14: After stimulus funds end in December 2010 and the FFP changes, state and federal spending
growth rates are roughly equal 19
Long Term Forecast of Medicaid Enrollment and Spending in Alaska: 2009‐2029
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