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Russia out of Chechnya and enable the separatists to establish an independent state as long as the attack was highly publicized and caused sufficient damage. The first was a hostage-taking raid staged by Basayev in the southern Russian town of Budyonnovsk in June 1995, where more than 125 people were killed. The raid caught Russian law- enforcers off guard and culminated in the seizure of a maternity ward. Using hostages as human shields, the separatists slipped back into Chechnya unpunished. Following this raid the Russian government suspended its military campaign in Chechnya. The second occurred in August 1996 when rebels infiltrated the Chechen capital of Grozny months after it had been conquered by Russian troops. Having covertly snuck into Grozny in small groups, they seized control of large parts of the city in a surprise attack, eventually forcing Moscow to negotiate the withdrawal of troops from Chechnya. The withdrawal led to the Khasavyurt Accords, which deferred determination of Chechnya’s legal status, giving the republic de-facto independence. Separatists’ confidence that the seizure of Grozny or a conventional terrorist act could reverse the course of war in Chechnya faded away in October 2002 after the federal authorities refused to yield to demands of a group of Chechen terrorists who executed a hostage situation similar in scale to that in Budyonnovsk. The Movsar Barayev-led attack on a musical theater involving more than 700 hostages in southeast Moscow did not accomplish the terrorists’ goals: The Kremlin refused to meet their demands even after the terrorists threatened to start killing the hostages. Instead, Russian commandoes stormed the theater on October 26. More than 120 hostages died, most of them succumbing to the effects of a gas that Russian law-enforcers used to sedate the hostage-takers. Soon after the attack Putin vowed “Russia will make no deals with terrorists and will not give in to any blackmail. 64 64 Oliver Bullough, “Putin Vows No Deal with “Terrorists” after Siege,” Reuters, October 28, 2002. 25
Now that a conventional terrorist attack has failed to meet their political objectives, Chechnya-based radical separatists may see catastrophic nuclear terrorism as one of the few options that will force Russia into leaving Chechnya. “We cannot guarantee that there will not be another group on Russian territory,” Maskhadov’s envoy Akhmed Zakayev said after the hostage-taking drama in Moscow ended. “Terrorist acts are possible. We cannot exclude that the next such group takes over some nuclear facility. The results may be catastrophic, not only for Russian society and for Chechen society but for the whole of Europe.” 65 Proof of motivation. There is much proof of Chechnya-based radical separatists’ motivation to commit acts of catastrophic nuclear terrorism and engage in WMD coercion, and it ranges from a plan to hijack an atomic submarine to threats to attack Russia’s NBC facilities. Perhaps the most stunning instance of the possibility of a nuclear terrorism attack was revealed in January 2002 when federal troops found late Chechen president Dzhokhar Dudayev’s personal archive in the village of Starye Atagi, which contained a detailed plan to hijack a Russian atomic submarine. Vladimir Moltenskoi, commander of the federal troops in Chechnya, told reporters a month later that the plan provided for seven Slav-looking fighters to seize a submarine from the Russian Navy’s Pacific Fleet sometime in 1995-96, which would coerce Moscow into withdrawing troops from Chechnya and recognizing the republic as an independent state. Moltenskoi said detailed military maps of Primorskii Krai, where the Pacific Fleet has bases, were found along with the plan. According to an April 26, 2002 Russian television report, the plan 65 Gleb Bryanski, “Denmark: Interview-Chechens Could Strike Nuclear Plant Next,” Reuters, October 27, 2002. 26
Page 1 and 2: Russia: Grasping Reality of Nuclear
Page 3 and 4: CO-SPONSORS The cosponsors of this
Page 5 and 6: military campaign in Chechnya at a
Page 7 and 8: house NBC materials and components
Page 9 and 10: attention toward securing the civil
Page 11 and 12: Ensuring that all of Russia’s nuc
Page 13 and 14: If it accepts this funding, the Rus
Page 15 and 16: members of Russian organized crimin
Page 17 and 18: salafites who seek to establish an
Page 19 and 20: More recently, however, Maskhadov h
Page 21 and 22: of the so-called Congress of the Pe
Page 23 and 24: even if he specifically orders all
Page 25 and 26: idea of Chechen independence, becau
Page 27: Sources in the Russian Ministry of
Page 31 and 32: years after Khasukhanov’s plan wa
Page 33 and 34: an independent Islamist state in th
Page 35 and 36: Even though Chechnya-based radical
Page 37 and 38: Even careful screening might fail t
Page 39 and 40: The cult actively recruited scienti
Page 41 and 42: sufficiently robust at all of Russi
Page 43 and 44: soldier had been suffering a nervou
Page 45 and 46: servicemen from the Andreeva Guba n
Page 47 and 48: thefts of nuclear warheads have bee
Page 49 and 50: in June 2002, and were still in cus
Page 51 and 52: As far as is known, most Russian ga
Page 53 and 54: VII. Conclusion There is no credibl
Page 55 and 56: But these doubts might disappear if
Page 57 and 58: should be boosted to further improv
Page 59 and 60: 1. Amend the Criminal Code to incre
Page 61 and 62: INTERNATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAM The
Page 63: The Robert and Renée Belfer Center

Russia - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs - Harvard ...

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